838-840 Rabbit Rd · Sanibel, FL 33957

$699,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,600 sqft · MultiFamily · 497 Days on market

Built 1990 0.33 ac lot ↓ 30% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks

Beautifully remodeled, near beach duplex with 2 bedrooms and 1 bath on each side with adjoining deck and a shared screened lanai overlooking the Sanibel River. Freshly painted inside and out, new roof, new hot water heaters, new impact front doors, new exterior stairs and deck surrounded by new lushly landscaped yard with Mosquito Nix system, irrigation system and a new driveway. Each side offers new tile plank floors, new kitchen cabinetry, new stainless-steel appliances, new quartz counters and fixtures. New washer & dryer. New fans throughout. Bathrooms include new vanities with quartz counters, custom showers with glass enclosure. Great island location, peaceful surroundings, clos

Key facts

• 0.33 acre lot
• Built 1990
• Listed 497 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $699k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-597 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $613k (12.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $590k (15.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $590k (15.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.8% in Sanibel — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#541 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: housing D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 526 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $21k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 497 days — a 12% lower offer ($615k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $280k (29%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $589,900 (15.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 497 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.04%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-150,938
• Equity at exit: $104,223

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.09×
• Total profit: $-178,965
• Equity at exit: $60,437

Cash invested: $195,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33957

• Home prices YoY: -15.7%
• Active inventory: 526
• Price-to-rent: 19.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,899 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,666
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$874 /mo · $10,485/yr
• Insurance: −$291
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,239
• Net cashflow: $-597

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,655

Max offer price $612,618

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-114	-5% $-355	+0% $-597	+5% $-838	+10% $-1,080
Rent	-10% $-1,063	-5% $-830	+0% $-597	+5% $-364	+10% $-131
Rate	-1.0pp $-245	-0.5pp $-419	base $-597	+0.5pp $-778	+1.0pp $-962

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	1	$5,900
Total (2 units)			$5,899

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $174,750
• Closing costs: $20,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
707 Durion Ct Sanibel, FL	3.0	2.5	1306	$12,000	$9.19	25d	1	0.35mi
548 Boulder Dr Sanibel, FL	3.0	3.0	1969	$6,500	$3.30	25d	1	0.54mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-03-06
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-21
   price $699,000
3. 2025-12-11
   price $739,000
4. 2025-11-17
   price $799,000
5. 2025-11-17
   price $79,900
6. 2025-04-28
   price $839,000
7. 2025-04-09
   price $894,000
8. 2025-02-12
   price $899,000
9. 2024-10-25
   listed $979,000 Active
10. 2024-09-03
    historical
11. 2024-07-11
    price $959,000
12. 2024-03-11
    listed $999,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $70,788
• − Mortgage interest: −$39,155
• − Property taxes: −$10,485
• − Insurance: −$8,614
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,663
• − Management: −$5,663
• − Depreciation: −$20,335
• Taxable loss: −$19,126
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,590
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,573/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — Sanibel

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #541
• US rank: #10166

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing D+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sanibel, FL
• City population: 6,402
• Population (ZIP): 6,402

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Romanian 4% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1% Spanish 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -93.08%
• Current HPI: 501.0
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-30.0% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-06 Pending — FORTMLS
• 2026-01-21 Price Changed $699,000 FORTMLS
• 2025-12-11 Price Changed $739,000 FORTMLS
• 2025-11-17 Price Changed $799,000 FORTMLS
• 2025-11-17 Price Changed $79,900 FORTMLS
• 2025-04-28 Price Changed $839,000 FORTMLS
• 2025-04-09 Price Changed $894,000 FORTMLS
• 2025-02-12 Price Changed $899,000 FORTMLS
• 2024-10-25 Listed $979,000 FORTMLS
• 2024-09-03 Listing Removed — FORTMLS
• 2024-07-11 Price Changed $959,000 FORTMLS
• 2024-03-11 Listed $999,000 FORTMLS