94 Kings Dr · Riverhead, NY 11901

$895,000

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,987 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 198 Days on market

Built 1970 0.53 ac lot $450/sqft · 38% above area Est $650k · 38% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover an incredible opportunity in Riverhead! Situated on over half an acre (0.53 acres), this spacious home offers room to grow, entertain, and create your ideal lifestyle. Featuring 4–5 bedrooms, 3 full bathrooms, and a flex room perfect for a home office, guest suite, den, or playroom — the layout adapts to your needs with ease. Enjoy a formal dining room for privacy during gatherings, an eat-in kitchen, and a large living room with views of the expansive backyard. Whether you dream of a pool and spa, outdoor sports area, or lush gardens — you have the space to make it happen! This is the perfect multi-generational home, blending comfort and practicality. Located in a private, secure, and peaceful neighborhood, yet conveniently less than a mile to grocery stores, medical care, banks, gas stations, restaurants, and all essentials.

Key facts

• Formal dining room
• Private neighborhood
• Large living room

Tags

• FLEX ROOM
• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• LARGE LIVING ROOM
• EXPANSIVE BACKYARD
• PRIVATE NEIGHBORHOOD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $895k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $10k ($120k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($20k rent vs $895k).
• Recommended offer: $788k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 19.7% vs local median 4.4% in Riverhead — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#325 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, housing B+; Watch: schools D, cost of living F.
• Riverhead Central School District (suburban): math 34% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #489 of 590 in NY (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 191 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $27k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $251k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 198 days — a 12% lower offer ($788k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $330k; list at $895k implies a 171% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $787,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 198 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 47.95%
• DSCR: 3.13
• GRM: 3.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $649,509
• List price: $895,000
• Delta: 37.80%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1128 Roanoke Ave	0.51mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,890 (-5%)	2mo	$435,000	$230	57
627 Roanoke Ave	0.57mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,932 (-3%)	8mo	$535,000	$277	55
143 Hallock St	0.45mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,800 (-9%)	1mo	$740,000	$411	54
30 Hallock St	0.58mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,860 (-6%)	10mo	$550,000	$296	49
310 Fishel Ave	0.52mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,869 (-6%)	16mo	$525,000	$281	46
1212 Roanoke Ave	0.53mi	4/2.0	2,250 (+13%)	7mo	$630,000	$280	45
607 Osborn Ave	0.75mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,772 (-11%)	1mo	$410,000	$231	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 45.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.97×
• Total profit: $492,860
• Equity at exit: $133,447

10-year hold

• IRR: 51.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.99×
• Total profit: $1,250,714
• Equity at exit: $77,383

Cash invested: $250,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11901

• Home prices YoY: -29.5%
• Active inventory: 191
• Price-to-rent: 3.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $20,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,693
• Tax from tax record: −$719 /mo · $8,629/yr
• Insurance: −$373
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,200
• Net cashflow: $10,015

Break-even live

Break-even rent $7,323

Max offer price $895,000

Occupancy floor 45%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $10,521	-5% $10,268	+0% $10,015	+5% $9,761	+10% $9,508
Rent	-10% $8,435	-5% $9,225	+0% $10,015	+5% $10,805	+10% $11,595
Rate	-1.0pp $10,465	-0.5pp $10,242	base $10,015	+0.5pp $9,783	+1.0pp $9,547

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $223,750
• Closing costs: $26,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
123 Broad Ave Riverhead, NY	5.0	3.0	2367	$20,000	$8.45	20d	1	1.34mi
97 Grant DR Aquebogue, NY	3.0	2.5	1900	$20,000	$10.53	45d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $895,000 Active 198 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $895,000 Active 195 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $895,000 Active 194 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $895,000 Active 193 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $895,000 Active 192 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $895,000 Active 190 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $895,000 Active 186 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $895,000 Active 185 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $895,000 Active 184 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $895,000 Active 181 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $895,000 Active 180 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $895,000 Active 179 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $895,000 Active 178 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $895,000 Active 177 DOM
15. 2025-12-04
    listed $895,000 Active 867-char remark

    Show marketing remark (867 chars)

    Discover an incredible opportunity in Riverhead! Situated on over half an acre (0.53 acres), this spacious home offers room to grow, entertain, and create your ideal lifestyle. Featuring 4–5 bedrooms, 3 full bathrooms, and a flex room perfect for a home office, guest suite, den, or playroom — the layout adapts to your needs with ease. Enjoy a formal dining room for privacy during gatherings, an eat-in kitchen, and a large living room with views of the expansive backyard. Whether you dream of a pool and spa, outdoor sports area, or lush gardens — you have the space to make it happen! This is the perfect multi-generational home, blending comfort and practicality. Located in a private, secure, and peaceful neighborhood, yet conveniently less than a mile to grocery stores, medical care, banks, gas stations, restaurants, and all essentials.

16. 2010-01-12
    soldstatus $330,000
17. 1982-11-01
    soldstatus $14,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $8,629 · $719/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $11,877 · $990/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,248/yr (+$271/mo · 37.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $240,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$50,134
• − Property taxes: −$8,629
• − Insurance: −$4,475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$19,200
• − Management: −$19,200
• − Depreciation: −$26,036
• Taxable income: $112,326
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$26,958
• After-tax cash flow: $93,216/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Riverhead Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3624690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 13.00%
• Median HH income: $61,607
• Composite: 36.38/100
• National rank: #4683
• State rank: #489 of 590 in NY

Livability — Riverhead

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #325
• US rank: #5379

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute B- Cost of living F Crime C Employment B- Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Riverhead, NY
• Population (ZIP): 32,921

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 14% Black 11% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Iranian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 26% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -182.60%
• Current HPI: 436.7781
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+6292.9% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-04 Listed $895,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-01-12 Sold (Public Records) $330,000 Public Records
• 1982-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $14,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,629 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.