4401 Hughes Ln #191 · Bakersfield, CA 93304

$120,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,288 sqft · Manufactured · 5 Days on market

Built 2020 $93/sqft · 24% above area Est $97k · 24% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This is the one YOU have been waiting for! This newly built 2020 built mobile home located in the Smoketree Estates park features 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, indoor laundry with a storage shed and a community pool. A few of the features in this darling home: Updated minimalistic landscaping at the entrance, newer wood-like flooring and carpet throughout, newer cabinets throughout, a newer AC unit, a newer fence at the carport and so much more. Do not miss out on this fantastic opportunity to own this cozy home MUST SEE!!!

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Low maintenance yard
• Modern kitchen

Tags

• MODERN KITCHEN
• COVERED PORCH
• LOW MAINTENANCE YARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Solar under PPA (power purchase agreement)
• HOA & community: Gated community

Exterior

• Parking: Carport
• Security: Gated community
• Utilities: Public water; Sewer
• Home design: Leased space; Owner occupant type; Zoned R1; Located in the St. Clair neighborhood; Facing/directions: Very west of the mobile home park in Smoke Tree Mobile Estates; cross street White Ln
• Construction: Composition roof; Exterior material: Other (see remarks)
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Gated community

Interior

• Kitchen: Range/oven; Microwave
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Range/oven; Microwave; Central air conditioning; Central heating; No fireplace listed

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $738 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Cap rate 13.7% vs local median 3.6% in Bakersfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#716 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, schools D-, crime F.
• Kern High (urban): math 21% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #860 of 1,400 in CA (top 61%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.7%/yr); 159 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,917/mo this rent would consume 45% of the median local household income ($51k/yr) (locally 2587% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $120,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.60% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.34%
• DSCR: 2.17
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $96,872
• List price: $120,000
• Delta: 23.87%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4401 Hughes Ln #66	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,296 (+1%)	13mo	$110,000	$85	88
4401 Hughes Ln #162	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (-3%)	2mo	$103,500	$83	88
4401 Hughes Ln #135	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,334 (+4%)	6mo	$135,000	$101	84
4401 Hughes Ln #180	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,233 (-4%)	18mo	$110,000	$89	78
4401 Hughes Ln #57	0.00mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (+12%)	2mo	$80,000	$56	74
4401 Hughes Ln #153	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,456 (+13%)	12mo	$130,000	$89	68
4401 Hughes Ln #143	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,144 (-11%)	21mo	$120,000	$105	64
4401 Hughes Ln #33	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (+12%)	16mo	$50,000	$35	62
4113 Estate St	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+12%)	2mo	$240,000	$167	50
2604 Clara Ct	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,152 (-11%)	11mo	$250,000	$217	44
4413 Estate St	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,152 (-11%)	12mo	$225,000	$195	44
3509 Sahara Ln	0.55mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (+12%)	13mo	$230,000	$160	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.65×
• Total profit: $21,909
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.72×
• Total profit: $57,842
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93304

• Rents YoY: -1.7%
• Active inventory: 159
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,917 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$98 /mo · $1,170/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$403
• Net cashflow: $738

Break-even live

Break-even rent $983

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 57%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $805	-5% $772	+0% $738	+5% $704	+10% $670
Rent	-10% $586	-5% $662	+0% $738	+5% $813	+10% $889
Rate	-1.0pp $798	-0.5pp $768	base $738	+0.5pp $706	+1.0pp $675

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2308 Kelso Peak Ave Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.5	1752	$3,900	$2.23	4d	1	0.34mi
4215 Teal St Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.5	960	$1,395	$1.45	4d	3	0.40mi
4140 Teal St Apt 10 Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	950	$1,295	$1.36	24d	1	0.42mi
4140 Teal St Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	950	$1,525	$1.61	4d	1	0.42mi
4140 Teal St Unit 12A Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	950	$1,525	$1.61	11d	1	0.42mi
2801 El Berrendo Ave Unit 1 Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1491	$2,395	$1.61	15d	1	0.44mi
4605 Mount Everest Way Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1465	$2,250	$1.54	4d	1	0.50mi
2313 San Lorenzo Ave Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1386	$2,095	$1.51	4d	1	0.53mi
2625 Miria Dr Bakersfield, CA	3.0	1.0	1308	$1,850	$1.41	24d	1	0.54mi
3605 Biltmore Ln Bakersfield, CA	2.0	2.0	1450	$1,650	$1.14	4d	1	0.62mi
4309 Rosewall St Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1356	$2,200	$1.62	4d	1	0.74mi
2805 Cambria Ave Bakersfield, CA	3.0	1.5	1395	$2,050	$1.47	4d	1	0.83mi
3608 Balboa Dr Bakersfield, CA	3.0	1.5	1051	$2,195	$2.09	4d	1	0.92mi
2109 Belvedere Ave Bakersfield, CA	4.0	2.0	1480	$2,200	$1.49	4d	1	0.94mi
1821 Lacey St Unit H Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1350	$2,150	$1.59	45d	1	0.94mi
1821 Lacey St Apt J Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1350	$2,150	$1.59	4d	1	0.95mi
3101 Coventry Dr Bakersfield, CA	2.0	2.0	945	$919	$0.97	4d	1	0.95mi
3605 Truman Ave Bakersfield, CA	4.0	2.0	1643	$2,295	$1.40	11d	1	1.03mi
4208 White Ln Unit A Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.5	1200	$1,575	$1.31	4d	1	1.03mi
4208 White Ln Apt B Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.5	1200	$1,575	$1.31	11d	1	1.03mi
1000 Pacheco Rd Unit 131 Bakersfield, CA	3.0	1.0	1095	$1,650	$1.51	4d	1	1.08mi
2704 Villalovos Ct Unit 2 Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1092	$1,650	$1.51	45d	1	1.08mi
4413 White Ln Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1249	$2,250	$1.80	22d	1	1.11mi
3316 Fiesta Ave Bakersfield, CA	3.0	3.0	1700	$2,300	$1.35	45d	1	1.13mi
5516 Dustin St Bakersfield, CA	4.0	2.0	1507	$2,450	$1.63	45d	1	1.19mi
2600 Chandler Ct Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.5	1073	$1,495	$1.39	15d	1	1.19mi
4505 Gardenwood Ln Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.5	1385	$2,295	$1.66	4d	1	1.20mi
1409 Lindsay Dr Bakersfield, CA	3.0	1.0	1049	$2,200	$2.10	4d	1	1.23mi
3600 Sampson Ct Unit A Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.5	945	$1,250	$1.32	24d	1	1.26mi
3600 Sampson Ct Unit A Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.5	936	$1,395	$1.49	45d	1	1.26mi
4513 Barry St Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1492	$1,975	$1.32	4d	1	1.27mi
2312 Castro Ln Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1127	$2,100	$1.86	4d	1	1.28mi
710 Chateau Ct Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1729	$2,200	$1.27	45d	1	1.31mi
6304 Castleford St Unit 4 Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1144	$1,500	$1.31	45d	1	1.31mi
6302 Castleford St Unit 4 Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1144	$1,500	$1.31	4d	1	1.32mi
3401 Actis St Unit 15 Bakersfield, CA	2.0	2.0	940	$1,495	$1.59	45d	1	1.33mi
3013 Alma Way Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1151	$2,100	$1.82	4d	1	1.36mi
3401 Starwood Ln Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1293	$1,750	$1.35	11d	1	1.36mi
6401 Castleford St Unit C Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1125	$1,500	$1.33	20d	1	1.36mi
4508 Planz Rd Apt A Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,700	$1.21	4d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $120,000 Active 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $120,000 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on marketlisting id $120,000 Active 1 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $120,000 Active 118 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   days on market $120,000 Active 116 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $120,000 Active 115 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $120,000 Active 114 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $120,000 Active 113 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   days on market $120,000 Active 110 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $120,000 Active 109 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $120,000 Active 108 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $120,000 Active 107 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $120,000 Active 106 DOM
14. 2026-05-06
    price $120,000 276-char remark
15. 2026-04-25
    price $124,900 276-char remark
16. 2026-03-29
    price $125,900 276-char remark
17. 2026-02-12
    listed $129,900 Active 276-char remark
18. 2023-03-28
    price $105,000 524-char remark

    Show marketing remark (524 chars)

    This is the one YOU have been waiting for! This newly built 2020 built mobile home located in the Smoketree Estates park features 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, indoor laundry with a storage shed and a community pool. A few of the features in this darling home: Updated minimalistic landscaping at the entrance, newer wood-like flooring and carpet throughout, newer cabinets throughout, a newer AC unit, a newer fence at the carport and so much more. Do not miss out on this fantastic opportunity to own this cozy home MUST SEE!!!

19. 2023-03-28
    soldstatus $105,000 Sold 524-char remark

    Show marketing remark (524 chars)

    This is the one YOU have been waiting for! This newly built 2020 built mobile home located in the Smoketree Estates park features 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, indoor laundry with a storage shed and a community pool. A few of the features in this darling home: Updated minimalistic landscaping at the entrance, newer wood-like flooring and carpet throughout, newer cabinets throughout, a newer AC unit, a newer fence at the carport and so much more. Do not miss out on this fantastic opportunity to own this cozy home MUST SEE!!!

20. 2023-03-21
    status Pending 524-char remark

    Show marketing remark (524 chars)

    This is the one YOU have been waiting for! This newly built 2020 built mobile home located in the Smoketree Estates park features 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, indoor laundry with a storage shed and a community pool. A few of the features in this darling home: Updated minimalistic landscaping at the entrance, newer wood-like flooring and carpet throughout, newer cabinets throughout, a newer AC unit, a newer fence at the carport and so much more. Do not miss out on this fantastic opportunity to own this cozy home MUST SEE!!!

21. 2023-03-03
    price $111,000 524-char remark

    Show marketing remark (524 chars)

    This is the one YOU have been waiting for! This newly built 2020 built mobile home located in the Smoketree Estates park features 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, indoor laundry with a storage shed and a community pool. A few of the features in this darling home: Updated minimalistic landscaping at the entrance, newer wood-like flooring and carpet throughout, newer cabinets throughout, a newer AC unit, a newer fence at the carport and so much more. Do not miss out on this fantastic opportunity to own this cozy home MUST SEE!!!

22. 2023-01-24
    price $112,500 524-char remark

    Show marketing remark (524 chars)

    This is the one YOU have been waiting for! This newly built 2020 built mobile home located in the Smoketree Estates park features 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, indoor laundry with a storage shed and a community pool. A few of the features in this darling home: Updated minimalistic landscaping at the entrance, newer wood-like flooring and carpet throughout, newer cabinets throughout, a newer AC unit, a newer fence at the carport and so much more. Do not miss out on this fantastic opportunity to own this cozy home MUST SEE!!!

23. 2023-01-11
    listed $115,000 Active 524-char remark

    Show marketing remark (524 chars)

    This is the one YOU have been waiting for! This newly built 2020 built mobile home located in the Smoketree Estates park features 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, indoor laundry with a storage shed and a community pool. A few of the features in this darling home: Updated minimalistic landscaping at the entrance, newer wood-like flooring and carpet throughout, newer cabinets throughout, a newer AC unit, a newer fence at the carport and so much more. Do not miss out on this fantastic opportunity to own this cozy home MUST SEE!!!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,170 · $98/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,170 · $98/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 33 unhealthy d/yr today · 37 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,003
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$1,170
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,840
• − Management: −$1,840
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $7,339
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,761
• After-tax cash flow: $7,089/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kern High
• NCES district ID: 0619540
• Math proficiency: 21% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,686
• Composite: 33.68/100
• National rank: #10443
• State rank: #860 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Bakersfield

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #716
• US rank: #21355

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bakersfield, CA
• County: Kern County · 710,371 people
• City population: 499,124
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• Population (ZIP): 51,037
• Household income: $50,790
• Rent vs Own: 53.9% rent · 46.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 2587.0

Population outlook (Kern County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 947,286 people
• By 2030: 978,984 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,045,018 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 1,105,232 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 1,229,538 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 1,238,059 · +30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 71% Two or more races 18% White 14% Black 9% Asian 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 65%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 48% English-only · Spanish 49% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kern

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.2% · R 59.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -17.8pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+10.2 2016: R+15.0 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+17.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -314.78%
• Current HPI: 397.9557
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.68%
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+4.3% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Listed $120,000 GEMLS
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $120,000 GEMLS
• 2026-04-25 Price Changed $124,900 GEMLS
• 2026-03-29 Price Changed $125,900 GEMLS
• 2026-02-12 Listed $129,900 GEMLS
• 2023-03-28 Price Changed $105,000 GEMLS
• 2023-03-28 Sold (MLS) $105,000 GEMLS
• 2023-03-21 Pending — GEMLS
• 2023-03-03 Price Changed $111,000 GEMLS
• 2023-01-24 Price Changed $112,500 GEMLS
• 2023-01-11 Listed $115,000 GEMLS

Property tax history

+11.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,170 · +8.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.