857 Road 590114 · Plum Grove, TX 77327

$199,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,002 sqft · SingleFamily · 186 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $100/sqft · at area comps Est $198k · at est. $10/mo HOA ↓ 18% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.0/30.0
• DSCR +8.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.1/15.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

MLS# 59799259 - Built by NHC - May 2026 completion! ~ Model 2002 B1 - Sequoia The Sequoia Plan from our Freedom Series is a spacious 2-story home featuring 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and 2,002 square feet of living space, complete with a 2-car garage. Upon entering the home, you’ll pass the staircase to the upper level and a convenient half bathroom before arriving at the open concept living area. The family room flows effortlessly into the kitchen, which boasts an angled island that overlooks the dining area. This layout is perfect for family gatherings and everyday living. The upper level is designed with comfort and convenience in mind. The primary suite features a walk-in closet and a private bathroom for your retreat. Three secondary bedrooms, a full bathroom, and the laundry room complete this level, offering space and functionality for the entire household.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026
• Listed 186 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $200k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $436 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $176k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 5.0% in Plum Grove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,206 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Cleveland ISD (town): math 24% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #723 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Northside El (math 33% / reading 31%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 1,235 students, 90% FRL); Cleveland Middle (math 22% / reading 25%, grade F, #1,317 of 1,662 statewide, top 80%, 1,696 students, 98% FRL); Cleveland H S (math 30% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,077 of 1,632 statewide, top 66%, 3,310 students, 92% FRL) — zoned schools average 93% FRL vs 71% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 1577 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 45% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 186 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $175,991 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 186 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.35%
• DSCR: 1.42
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $198,023
• List price: $199,990
• Delta: 0.99%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1208 Road 5823	0.61mi	4/2.5	2,002 (0%)	13mo	$212,990	$106	61
1777 Road 5722	0.47mi	4/2.0	1,805 (-10%)	14mo	$295,000	$163	48
243 Road 5821	0.49mi	4/2.0	1,804 (-10%)	18mo	$208,990	$116	44
226 Road 5821	0.54mi	4/2.0	1,804 (-10%)	16mo	$176,990	$98	42
258 Road 5821	0.52mi	4/2.0	1,804 (-10%)	18mo	$179,990	$100	42
267 Road 5821	0.48mi	5/3.0 (+1)	1,804 (-10%)	17mo	$175,990	$98	40
1200 Road 5823	0.62mi	4/2.0	1,804 (-10%)	15mo	$211,990	$118	40
2108 County Road 3556	0.62mi	3/3.5 (-1)	1,800 (-10%)	10mo	$239,900	$133	37
1756 Road 5723	0.66mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,232 (+12%)	11mo	$215,000	$96	34
1204 Rd 5823	0.62mi	5/3.0 (+1)	1,804 (-10%)	17mo	$181,990	$101	33
732 Road 5714	0.65mi	5/3.0 (+1)	1,804 (-10%)	16mo	$205,990	$114	33
2198 Road 5722	0.64mi	5/3.0 (+1)	1,764 (-12%)	14mo	$186,500	$106	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.96×
• Total profit: $-2,237
• Equity at exit: $29,819

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.78×
• Total profit: $43,835
• Equity at exit: $17,291

Cash invested: $55,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77327

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 1577
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,314 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$250 /mo · $3,000/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$10
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$486
• Net cashflow: $436

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,762

Max offer price $199,990

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $574	-5% $505	+0% $436	+5% $367	+10% $298
Rent	-10% $253	-5% $345	+0% $436	+5% $528	+10% $619
Rate	-1.0pp $537	-0.5pp $487	base $436	+0.5pp $384	+1.0pp $332

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,998
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
662 Road 590110 Cleveland, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$2,200	$1.38	14d	1	0.13mi
287 Road 5821 Cleveland, TX	5.0	3.0	2676	$2,000	$0.75	0d	1	0.54mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $10 · $120/yr

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $199,990 Active 186 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,990 Active 183 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   price $199,990 Active 182 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $204,990 Active 182 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $204,990 Active 181 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $204,990 Active 180 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $204,990 Active 178 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $204,990 Active 174 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $204,990 Active 173 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $204,990 Active 172 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $204,990 Active 169 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $204,990 Active 168 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $204,990 Active 167 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $204,990 Active 166 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $204,990 Active 165 DOM
16. 2026-05-14
    price $212,990 882-char remark

    Show marketing remark (23 chars)

    Model 2002 B1 - Sequoia

17. 2026-05-14
    price $212,990 23-char remark

    Show marketing remark (23 chars)

    Model 2002 B1 - Sequoia

18. 2026-05-04
    listed $214,990 Active 23-char remark

    Show marketing remark (23 chars)

    Model 2002 B1 - Sequoia

19. 2026-04-23
    price $214,990 882-char remark

    Show marketing remark (882 chars)

    MLS# 59799259 - Built by NHC - May 2026 completion! ~ Model 2002 B1 - Sequoia The Sequoia Plan from our Freedom Series is a spacious 2-story home featuring 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and 2,002 square feet of living space, complete with a 2-car garage. Upon entering the home, you’ll pass the staircase to the upper level and a convenient half bathroom before arriving at the open concept living area. The family room flows effortlessly into the kitchen, which boasts an angled island that overlooks the dining area. This layout is perfect for family gatherings and everyday living. The upper level is designed with comfort and convenience in mind. The primary suite features a walk-in closet and a private bathroom for your retreat. Three secondary bedrooms, a full bathroom, and the laundry room complete this level, offering space and functionality for the entire household.

20. 2026-03-11
    price $239,990 882-char remark

    Show marketing remark (882 chars)

    MLS# 59799259 - Built by NHC - May 2026 completion! ~ Model 2002 B1 - Sequoia The Sequoia Plan from our Freedom Series is a spacious 2-story home featuring 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and 2,002 square feet of living space, complete with a 2-car garage. Upon entering the home, you’ll pass the staircase to the upper level and a convenient half bathroom before arriving at the open concept living area. The family room flows effortlessly into the kitchen, which boasts an angled island that overlooks the dining area. This layout is perfect for family gatherings and everyday living. The upper level is designed with comfort and convenience in mind. The primary suite features a walk-in closet and a private bathroom for your retreat. Three secondary bedrooms, a full bathroom, and the laundry room complete this level, offering space and functionality for the entire household.

21. 2026-02-12
    price $259,990 882-char remark

    Show marketing remark (882 chars)

    MLS# 59799259 - Built by NHC - May 2026 completion! ~ Model 2002 B1 - Sequoia The Sequoia Plan from our Freedom Series is a spacious 2-story home featuring 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and 2,002 square feet of living space, complete with a 2-car garage. Upon entering the home, you’ll pass the staircase to the upper level and a convenient half bathroom before arriving at the open concept living area. The family room flows effortlessly into the kitchen, which boasts an angled island that overlooks the dining area. This layout is perfect for family gatherings and everyday living. The upper level is designed with comfort and convenience in mind. The primary suite features a walk-in closet and a private bathroom for your retreat. Three secondary bedrooms, a full bathroom, and the laundry room complete this level, offering space and functionality for the entire household.

22. 2025-12-17
    listed $261,100 Active 882-char remark

    Show marketing remark (882 chars)

    MLS# 59799259 - Built by NHC - May 2026 completion! ~ Model 2002 B1 - Sequoia The Sequoia Plan from our Freedom Series is a spacious 2-story home featuring 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and 2,002 square feet of living space, complete with a 2-car garage. Upon entering the home, you’ll pass the staircase to the upper level and a convenient half bathroom before arriving at the open concept living area. The family room flows effortlessly into the kitchen, which boasts an angled island that overlooks the dining area. This layout is perfect for family gatherings and everyday living. The upper level is designed with comfort and convenience in mind. The primary suite features a walk-in closet and a private bathroom for your retreat. Three secondary bedrooms, a full bathroom, and the laundry room complete this level, offering space and functionality for the entire household.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,770
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$3,000
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,222
• − Management: −$2,222
• − HOA: −$120
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable income: $2,187
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$525
• After-tax cash flow: $4,709/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 7 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It is ready for minor cosmetic updates to enhance its curb appeal and interior aesthetics, making it an attractive option for both resale and rental markets.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Updating the flooring in the bedrooms — Carpet can be replaced with hardwood or tile for a more modern look and easier maintenance.
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can improve functionality and appeal to potential buyers/renters.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value.
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase convenience and appeal to tech-savvy buyers/renters.
• Both Upgrading the lighting fixtures — Modern lighting can improve the overall ambiance and energy efficiency of the home.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Updating the flooring in the bedrooms — Carpet can be replaced with hardwood or tile for a more modern look and easier maintenance. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can improve functionality and appeal to potential buyers/renters. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase convenience and appeal to tech-savvy buyers/renters. ↑
• Both Upgrading the lighting fixtures — Modern lighting can improve the overall ambiance and energy efficiency of the home. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cleveland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814370
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $39,173
• Composite: 20.61/100
• National rank: #8549
• State rank: #723 of 826 in TX

Livability — Plum Grove

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1206
• US rank: #21049

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Liberty County · 82,189 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 42,685
• Household income: $62,219
• Rent vs Own: 14.4% rent · 85.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 437.0

Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,956 people
• By 2030: 92,161 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 100,784 · +14.6%
• By 2050: 109,471 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 133,470 · +51.7%
• By 2100: 147,372 · +67.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% White 36% Two or more races 18% Black 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1% Slovak 0%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 48%

Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 19.0% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -43.7pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.7 2016: R+58.0 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+43.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.39%
• Current HPI: 224.9222
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.00%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-18.4% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $212,990 HARMLS
• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $212,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-04 Listed $214,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $214,990 HARMLS
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $239,990 HARMLS
• 2026-02-12 Price Changed $259,990 HARMLS
• 2025-12-17 Listed $261,100 HARMLS