200 County Road 2859 · Big Thicket Lake Estates, TX 77327

$70,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 864 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 139 Days on market

Built 1970 0.25 ac lot $81/sqft · 44% below area Est $124k · 44% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great opportunity for an investor or primary residence buyer seeking a home that is ready to move in with a few minor improvements or the option to renovate and add value over time. This 2 bedroom, 1 bath home sits on approximately a quarter of an acre in Cleveland, TX and offers a quiet, rural setting with room to grow. Located approximately 1 mile from Horseshoe Lake, the property benefits from nearby recreational appeal while remaining easily accessible. Public water is available, and the generous lot size allows flexibility for future improvements, outdoor living, or expansion. Whether you are looking for a starter home, weekend retreat, or long term investment, this property offers multiple paths to ownership. Bring your vision and make it your own in Liberty County.

Key facts

• Quiet rural setting
• Outdoor living
• Generous lot size

Tags

• QUIET RURAL SETTING
• GENEROUS LOT SIZE
• OUTDOOR LIVING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $89 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $62k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.1% vs local median 4.0% in Big Thicket Lake Estates — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 48/100 on livability (#1,532 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Hardin ISD (rural): math 39% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #354 of 826 in TX (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hardin El (math 43% / reading 41%, grade F, #1,335 of 4,322 statewide, top 33%, 607 students, 67% FRL); Hardin J H (math 28% / reading 44%, grade F, #805 of 1,662 statewide, top 50%, 316 students, 60% FRL); Hardin H S (math 67% / reading 57%, grade B-, #237 of 1,632 statewide, top 16%, 394 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 1577 active listings in the ZIP; 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $484 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 139 days — a 12% lower offer ($62k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $61,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 139 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.78% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.54%
• DSCR: 2.40
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $123,927
• List price: $70,000
• Delta: -43.52%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-4,156
• Equity at exit: $10,437

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.51×
• Total profit: $10,071
• Equity at exit: $6,052

Cash invested: $19,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77327

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 1577
• Price-to-rent: 4.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,248 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$75 /mo · $895/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$262
• Net cashflow: $89

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,136

Max offer price $70,000

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $128	-5% $108	+0% $89	+5% $69	+10% $49
Rent	-10% $-10	-5% $39	+0% $89	+5% $138	+10% $187
Rate	-1.0pp $124	-0.5pp $106	base $89	+0.5pp $71	+1.0pp $52

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,500
• Closing costs: $2,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $70,000 Active 139 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $70,000 Active 136 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $70,000 Active 135 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $70,000 Active 134 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $70,000 Active 133 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $70,000 Active 131 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $70,000 Active 127 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $70,000 Active 126 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $70,000 Active 125 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $70,000 Active 122 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $70,000 Active 121 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $70,000 Active 120 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $70,000 Active 119 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $70,000 Active 118 DOM
15. 2026-03-24
    price $70,000 782-char remark

    Show marketing remark (782 chars)

    Great opportunity for an investor or primary residence buyer seeking a home that is ready to move in with a few minor improvements or the option to renovate and add value over time. This 2 bedroom, 1 bath home sits on approximately a quarter of an acre in Cleveland, TX and offers a quiet, rural setting with room to grow. Located approximately 1 mile from Horseshoe Lake, the property benefits from nearby recreational appeal while remaining easily accessible. Public water is available, and the generous lot size allows flexibility for future improvements, outdoor living, or expansion. Whether you are looking for a starter home, weekend retreat, or long term investment, this property offers multiple paths to ownership. Bring your vision and make it your own in Liberty County.

16. 2026-01-12
    listed $80,000 Active 782-char remark

    Show marketing remark (782 chars)

    Great opportunity for an investor or primary residence buyer seeking a home that is ready to move in with a few minor improvements or the option to renovate and add value over time. This 2 bedroom, 1 bath home sits on approximately a quarter of an acre in Cleveland, TX and offers a quiet, rural setting with room to grow. Located approximately 1 mile from Horseshoe Lake, the property benefits from nearby recreational appeal while remaining easily accessible. Public water is available, and the generous lot size allows flexibility for future improvements, outdoor living, or expansion. Whether you are looking for a starter home, weekend retreat, or long term investment, this property offers multiple paths to ownership. Bring your vision and make it your own in Liberty County.

17. 2023-12-31
    historical
18. 2023-05-19
    price $69,000
19. 2023-04-11
    listed $74,900 Active
20. 2023-04-05
    historical
21. 2023-02-21
    listed $93,000 Active
22. 2021-10-14
    soldstatus
23. 2021-08-16
    status Pending
24. 2021-08-05
    status Option Pending
25. 2021-08-05
    historical
26. 2021-07-12
    listed $42,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $895 · $75/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,281 · $107/mo
• Expected delta: +$386/yr (+$32/mo · 43.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone AE · 64% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,977
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,921
• − Property taxes: −$895
• − Insurance: −$5,468
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,198
• − Management: −$1,198
• − Depreciation: −$2,036
• Taxable income: $260
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$62
• After-tax cash flow: $1,001/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hardin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4822380
• Math proficiency: 39% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $48,099
• Composite: 35.54/100
• National rank: #4907
• State rank: #354 of 826 in TX

Livability — Big Thicket Lake Estates

• Score: 48/100
• State rank: #1532
• US rank: #26123

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Liberty County · 82,189 people
• City population: 82,189
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 42,685
• Household income: $62,219
• Rent vs Own: 14.4% rent · 85.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 437.0

Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,956 people
• By 2030: 92,161 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 100,784 · +14.6%
• By 2050: 109,471 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 133,470 · +51.7%
• By 2100: 147,372 · +67.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% White 36% Two or more races 18% Black 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1% Slovak 0%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 48%

Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 19.0% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -43.7pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.7 2016: R+58.0 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+43.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.39%
• Current HPI: 224.9222
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.00%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+66.7% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $70,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-12 Listed $80,000 HARMLS
• 2023-12-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-05-19 Price Changed $69,000 HARMLS
• 2023-04-11 Listed $74,900 HARMLS
• 2023-04-05 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-02-21 Listed $93,000 HARMLS
• 2021-10-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-08-16 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-08-05 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-08-05 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2021-07-12 Listed $42,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+7.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $895 · -1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.