20201 Burnside Pl #101 · Estero, FL 33928

$445,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,656 sqft · Condo public records · 58 Days on market

Built 2002 $1225/mo HOA · 21% of rent ↓ 1% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.5/30.0
• 1% rule +8.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to one of the most compelling opportunities currently available in Grandezza Golf & Country Club — and the ONLY condo currently on the market in the highly sought-after Avalon subdivision. This rare FIRST-FLOOR 3-bedroom / 2.5-bath coach home lives like a single-family residence, offering exceptional privacy, well-built construction, spaciousness, and breathtaking golf course views in one of Estero’s most desirable country club communities. A standout feature is the private courtyard entrance with sitting area, creating a charming and secluded arrival experience rarely found in coach homes. Inside, the spacious open layout flows effortlessly to an expansive wrap-ar

Key facts

• $1,225 HOA
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

Tags

• PRIVATE COURTYARD ENTRANCE
• EXPANSIVE WRAP-AROUND LANAI
• RETRACTABLE FRONT DOOR SCREEN
• 2-CAR GARAGE WITH EPOXY FLOOR
• GORGEOUS GOLF COURSE VIEWS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA; Quarterly master HOA fee ($550); Quarterly condo fee ($1,875); Annual mandatory club fee ($5,004); one-time mandatory club fee ($7,500); Professional management; Maintenance covers cable, internet/WiFi, irrigation water, lawn/land maintenance, legal/accounting, exterior pest control, recreation facilities, security, street lights, trash removal and water; Community amenities include clubhouse, community pool and spa, exercise/fitness center (attended), golf course (non-equity), tennis courts, bocce, putting green, restaurant, basketball, sidewalks and underground utilities; Community type: gated, golf course, tennis; Total annual recurring fees listed: $15,704; total one-time fees listed: $7,750

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Security: Gated community with guard at gate and patrolled security
• Utilities: Central water; Central sewer; Cable available; Electric service
• Home design: Residential villa attached (carriage/coach style); 1 story; Rear exposure to the east; Subdivisions: GRANDEZZA, Avalon
• Construction: Concrete block construction; Stucco exterior finish; Tile roof; Built in 2002
• Exterior features: Patio; Automatic sprinkler system; Electric storm shutters; Single-hung windows; Windows: see remarks

Interior

• Kitchen: Pantry; Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator/Freezer; Refrigerator/Icemaker
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms; First-floor bedroom; Master bedroom on ground level with sitting area; Split bedroom layout
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom; Master bath with dual sinks and separate tub and shower
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heat; Central electric cooling; Ceiling fans; Cable available
• Interior features: Built-in cabinets; Cable prewire; Foyer; High-speed internet available; Laundry tub; Pantry; Smoke detectors; Walk-in closet; Window coverings; Screened lanai/porch; Great room floor plan; Split bedrooms floor plan
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry in residence; Laundry tub; Auto garage door

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath condo listed at $445k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $589 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $445k).
• Recommended offer: $432k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 3.4% in Estero — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#149 in FL, #2,242 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living D-.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.4%/yr); 668 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $5,814/mo this rent would consume 68% of the median local household income ($103k/yr) (locally 606% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($432k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 21% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $431,650 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.31% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.67%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-50,968
• Equity at exit: $66,351

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-59,239
• Equity at exit: $38,475

Cash invested: $124,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33928

• Rents YoY: -1.4%
• Active inventory: 668
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,814 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,334
• Tax from tax record: −$260 /mo · $3,118/yr
• Insurance: −$185
• HOA: −$1,225
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,221
• Net cashflow: $589

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,068

Max offer price $445,000

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $111,250
• Closing costs: $13,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
20240 Burnside Pl #1603 Estero, FL	3.0	2.5	1656	$5,995	$3.62	23d	1	0.12mi
20112 Saraceno Dr Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	2107	$10,750	$5.10	23d	1	0.22mi
20099 Seadale Ct Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	2079	$5,500	$2.65	23d	1	0.23mi
20271 Calice Ct #2304 Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	2009	$10,500	$5.23	23d	1	0.25mi
20083 Seadale Ct Estero, FL	2.0	2.0	1981	$10,500	$5.30	23d	1	0.26mi
19520 Highland Oaks Dr Estero, FL	3.0	1.0–2.0	977	$2,720	$2.78	1d	18	0.30mi
20310 Calice Ct #1202 Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	1569	$5,500	$3.51	23d	1	0.30mi
20150 Seagrove St #2701 Estero, FL	3.0	2.5	1856	$2,895	$1.56	15d	1	0.32mi
20057 Saraceno Dr Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	1848	$7,000	$3.79	23d	1	0.33mi
20053 Saraceno Dr Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	2045	$8,995	$4.40	23d	1	0.34mi
20161 Seagrove St #102 Estero, FL	2.0	2.0	1702	$6,000	$3.53	23d	1	0.37mi
20161 Seagrove St #108 Estero, FL	2.0	2.0	1655	$5,995	$3.62	23d	1	0.37mi
20151 Seagrove St #206 Estero, FL	2.0	2.0	1735	$6,000	$3.46	23d	1	0.37mi
20101 Seagrove St #708 Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	1431	$5,995	$4.19	23d	1	0.38mi
20051 Seagrove St #1202 Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	1567	$5,995	$3.83	23d	1	0.42mi
21301 Lancaster Run #822 Estero, FL	2.0	2.0	1134	$2,700	$2.38	23d	1	0.50mi
21311 Lancaster Run #721 Estero, FL	2.0	2.0	1200	$5,499	$4.58	23d	1	0.53mi
21330 Lancaster Run #1218 Estero, FL	2.0	2.0	1225	$2,500	$2.04	21d	1	0.62mi
21330 Lancaster Run Estero, FL	2.0	2.0	1225	$2,300	$1.88	23d	2	0.62mi
21300 Lancaster Run #926 Estero, FL	2.0	2.0	1360	$2,200	$1.62	10d	1	0.65mi
21340 Lancaster Run #1327 Estero, FL	2.0	2.0	1134	$2,500	$2.20	23d	1	0.66mi
21361 Lancaster Run #225 Estero, FL	2.0	2.0	1134	$2,000	$1.76	23d	1	0.70mi
21350 Lancaster Run Estero, FL	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,822	$1.52	3d	2	0.70mi
21371 Lancaster Run #122 Estero, FL	2.0	2.0	1134	$4,800	$4.23	23d	1	0.74mi
21370 Lancaster Run #1622 Estero, FL	2.0	2.0	1134	$4,500	$3.97	23d	1	0.76mi
20257 Royal Villagio Ct Estero, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1364	$2,300	$1.69	3d	2	0.77mi
20257 Royal Villagio Ct #202 Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	1537	$2,300	$1.50	23d	1	0.78mi
10530 Otter Key Ln Estero, FL	2.0	2.0	2062	$2,995	$1.45	3d	1	0.82mi
10101 Villagio Palms Way Estero, FL	3.0	2.0–2.5	1732	$2,550	$1.47	3d	2	0.88mi
21489 Sheridan Run Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	1645	$10,000	$6.08	23d	1	0.89mi
10445 Corkscrew Commons Dr Estero, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1031	$2,060	$2.00	2d	17	0.93mi
20230 Estero Gardens Cir #206 Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	1828	$2,550	$1.39	23d	1	0.93mi
19640 Marino Lake Cir #2602 Miromar Lakes, FL	2.0	2.0	2034	$7,000	$3.44	23d	1	0.97mi
19721 Marino Lake Cir #1002 Miromar Lakes, FL	3.0	2.0	2034	$5,000	$2.46	11d	1	0.97mi
19630 Marino Lake Cir #2702 Miromar Lakes, FL	2.0	2.0	2034	$7,500	$3.69	23d	1	1.00mi
20321 Estero Gardens Cir Estero, FL	2.0–3.0	1.5–2.0	1423	$3,700	$2.60	23d	3	1.03mi
21565 Windham Run Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	1947	$3,000	$1.54	23d	1	1.04mi
10541 Marino Pointe Dr #2002 Miromar Lakes, FL	2.0	2.0	2034	$8,500	$4.18	23d	1	1.04mi
10140 North Golden Elm Dr Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	1631	$2,500	$1.53	19d	1	1.04mi
20092 Palermo Lake Ct Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	1975	$7,995	$4.05	23d	1	1.07mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $1,225 · $14,700/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-17
   days on market $445,000 Active 58 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $445,000 Active 57 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $445,000 Active 56 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $445,000 Active 54 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   days on market $445,000 Active 51 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $445,000 Active 50 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $445,000 Active 48 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $445,000 Active 44 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $445,000 Active 43 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $445,000 Active 42 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $445,000 Active 41 DOM
12. 2026-05-18
    price $445,000
13. 2026-05-10
    status Active
14. 2026-05-04
    status Pending With Contingencies
15. 2026-04-14
    listed $449,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,118 · $260/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,694 · $308/mo
• Expected delta: +$576/yr (+$48/mo · 18.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $69,766
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,927
• − Property taxes: −$3,118
• − Insurance: −$2,225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,581
• − Management: −$5,581
• − HOA: −$14,700
• − Depreciation: −$12,945
• Taxable income: $689
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$165
• After-tax cash flow: $6,904/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — Estero

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #149
• US rank: #2242

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Estero, FL
• County: Lee County · 788,662 people
• City population: 31,926
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• Population (ZIP): 31,926
• Household income: $102,624
• Rent vs Own: 12.6% rent · 87.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 606.0

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Asian 3% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -109.49%
• Current HPI: 197.5913
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.42%
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-1.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $445,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2026-05-10 Relisted — NAPLESMLS
• 2026-05-04 Pending — NAPLESMLS
• 2026-04-14 Listed $449,500 NAPLESMLS

Property tax history

+0.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,118 · +4.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.