2811 S Pines Dr #18 · Largo, FL 33771

$174,700

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,048 sqft · Condo public records · 230 Days on market

Built 1984

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.9/30.0
• DSCR +7.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Come check out this incredible two story one and a half bath townhome in the heart of Pinellas! Located conveniently from both the beautiful Pinellas beaches and the interstate system, this townhome is quietly nestled at the end of the Tall Pines community off of Ulmerton Rd. With an ample size living room and a screened in lanai there is plenty of space for personal comfort or entertaining guests. The two bedrooms are located upstairs, with the master bedroom having private access to the upstairs bathroom. Washer and dryer hookup in a recessed laundry area on the second story. With no HOA fees, no CDD fees and no lease restrictions this is an incredible opportunity for both those looking to relocate and for investors alike!

Key facts

• Not in a flood zone
• No hoa
• Built 1984

Tags

• WELL LOCATED COMMUNITY
• NO HOA
• NO RENTAL RESTRICTIONS
• NOT IN A FLOOD ZONE
• SMART AND FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• OPEN LIVING AND DINING AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath condo listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $340 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• Recommended offer: $154k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 4.2% in Largo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#82 in FL, #1,240 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F.
• Pinellas (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #31 of 73 in FL (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Walsingham Elementary School (math 62% / reading 52%, grade C+, #781 of 2,144 statewide, top 38%, 392 students, 67% FRL); Largo High School (math 30% / reading 50%, grade F, #296 of 667 statewide, top 45%, 2,055 students, 53% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 225 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,676 units permitted in Pinellas County in 2024 (1,422 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($60k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pinellas County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 230 days — a 12% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $153,736 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 230 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.35%
• DSCR: 1.37
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-12,335
• Equity at exit: $26,048

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.90×
• Total profit: $-4,882
• Equity at exit: $15,105

Cash invested: $48,916 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33771

• Home prices YoY: -30.2%
• Rents YoY: -1.1%
• Active inventory: 225
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,959 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$916
• Tax from tax record: −$218 /mo · $2,615/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$411
• Net cashflow: $340

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,528

Max offer price $174,700

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $439	-5% $390	+0% $340	+5% $291	+10% $242
Rent	-10% $186	-5% $263	+0% $340	+5% $418	+10% $495
Rate	-1.0pp $428	-0.5pp $385	base $340	+0.5pp $295	+1.0pp $249

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,675
• Closing costs: $5,241
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2871 S Pines Dr #24 Largo, FL	2.0	1.5	1048	$1,800	$1.72	25d	1	0.09mi
8775 Christie Dr Largo, FL	2.0	3.0	1300	$2,198	$1.69	19d	1	0.15mi
3030 Whispering Dr N Largo, FL	3.0	2.0	1348	$3,600	$2.67	25d	1	0.22mi
3331 Whispering Dr N Largo, FL	2.0	2.0	1053	$2,190	$2.08	25d	1	0.39mi
1601 Palm Way Largo, FL	3.0	1.0	1084	$1,950	$1.80	25d	1	0.51mi
960 Starkey Rd #8402 Largo, FL	2.0	2.0	1324	$2,200	$1.66	25d	1	0.53mi
960 Starkey Rd #5105 Largo, FL	2.0	2.0	1324	$2,295	$1.73	25d	1	0.58mi
636 Lake Palms Dr Unit Stylish Largo, FL	3.0	2.0	1000	$2,200	$2.20	25d	1	0.61mi
636 Lake Palms Dr Unit Stylish Largo, FL	2.0	2.0	870	$2,000	$2.30	5d	1	0.61mi
960 Starkey Rd #10305 Largo, FL	2.0	2.0	1324	$2,200	$1.66	16d	1	0.63mi
3736 141st Pl Largo, FL	2.0	1.0	805	$1,650	$2.05	25d	1	0.65mi
1200 Country Club Dr #1502 Largo, FL	2.0	2.0	1320	$2,350	$1.78	5d	1	0.66mi
1200 Country Club Dr #3302 Largo, FL	2.0	2.0	1320	$2,200	$1.67	5d	1	0.66mi
1200 Country Club Dr #4102 Largo, FL	2.0	2.0	1324	$2,100	$1.59	5d	1	0.66mi
779 34th St SE Unit 1319966P Largo, FL	2.0	1.0	990	$2,941	$2.97	9d	1	0.68mi
3718 138th Ave N Unit 2 Largo, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,500	$2.00	25d	1	0.69mi
3767 138th Ave N Unit B Largo, FL	2.0	1.0	780	$1,495	$1.92	3d	1	0.71mi
3073 Pine Tree Ave Largo, FL	2.0	1.0	825	$1,350	$1.64	25d	1	0.72mi
3135 Pine Tree Ave Unit A Largo, FL	2.0	1.0	923	$1,395	$1.51	23d	1	0.73mi
3135 Pine Tree Ave Largo, FL	2.0	1.0	923	$1,395	$1.51	12d	1	0.74mi
9122 Jakes Path Largo, FL	3.0	2.5	1461	$2,600	$1.78	25d	1	0.74mi
2505 E Bay Dr Lot 77 Largo, FL	2.0	1.5	1080	$1,395	$1.29	21d	1	0.84mi
600 Starkey Rd Largo, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	982	$1,774	$1.81	4d	21	0.85mi
44 Countryclub Dr #44 Largo, FL	2.0	2.0	1278	$2,300	$1.80	25d	1	0.87mi
3022 Meadow Lake Ave Largo, FL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,450	$1.61	5d	1	0.88mi
3022 Meadow Lake Ave Largo, FL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,450	$1.61	12d	1	0.88mi
68 Country Club Dr Largo, FL	2.0	2.0	1396	$2,100	$1.50	25d	1	0.96mi
69 Country Club Dr Largo, FL	2.0	2.0	1278	$2,000	$1.56	25d	1	0.96mi
2045 E Bay Dr Largo, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1114	$1,830	$1.64	3d	15	0.97mi
2291 E Bay Dr Largo, FL	2.0	2.0	708	$1,600	$2.26	23d	1	0.98mi
2291 E Bay Dr Largo, FL	2.0	2.0	708	$1,600	$2.26	21d	1	0.98mi
225 Country Club Dr #1404 Largo, FL	2.0	2.0	1440	$1,700	$1.18	5d	1	0.98mi
84 21st Ter SE Unit 1502691P Largo, FL	3.0	2.0	1291	$5,914	$4.58	9d	1	1.02mi
14875 Cromwell Dr Clearwater, FL	3.0	2.0	1485	$2,195	$1.48	18d	1	1.02mi
9925 Ulmerton Rd #74 Largo, FL	2.0	1.5	1140	$1,800	$1.58	19d	1	1.03mi
200 Country Club Dr #1505 Largo, FL	3.0	2.0	1255	$1,980	$1.58	16d	1	1.13mi
3377 Sherwood Dr Unit A Largo, FL	2.0	1.0	1064	$1,650	$1.55	9d	1	1.14mi
199 Fulton St NE Unit 4 Largo, FL	2.0	1.0	760	$1,600	$2.11	15d	1	1.16mi
7360 Ulmerton Rd Unit 3C Largo, FL	1.0	1.0	846	$1,599	$1.89	25d	1	1.27mi
7360 Ulmerton Rd Unit NA Largo, FL	2.0	2.0	1155	$2,050	$1.77	25d	1	1.27mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-03-13
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-21
   price $174,700
3. 2025-11-06
   price $175,000
4. 2025-10-15
   price $190,000
5. 2025-09-10
   price $197,000
6. 2025-07-26
   listed $200,000 Active
7. 2024-08-01
   status Active
8. 2024-08-01
   price $249,900
9. 2024-07-28
   listed $265,000 Active
10. 2022-09-06
    soldstatus $226,000
11. 2022-09-01
    historical 734-char remark

    Show marketing remark (734 chars)

    Come check out this incredible two story one and a half bath townhome in the heart of Pinellas! Located conveniently from both the beautiful Pinellas beaches and the interstate system, this townhome is quietly nestled at the end of the Tall Pines community off of Ulmerton Rd. With an ample size living room and a screened in lanai there is plenty of space for personal comfort or entertaining guests. The two bedrooms are located upstairs, with the master bedroom having private access to the upstairs bathroom. Washer and dryer hookup in a recessed laundry area on the second story. With no HOA fees, no CDD fees and no lease restrictions this is an incredible opportunity for both those looking to relocate and for investors alike!

12. 2022-09-01
    status Pending 734-char remark

    Show marketing remark (734 chars)

    Come check out this incredible two story one and a half bath townhome in the heart of Pinellas! Located conveniently from both the beautiful Pinellas beaches and the interstate system, this townhome is quietly nestled at the end of the Tall Pines community off of Ulmerton Rd. With an ample size living room and a screened in lanai there is plenty of space for personal comfort or entertaining guests. The two bedrooms are located upstairs, with the master bedroom having private access to the upstairs bathroom. Washer and dryer hookup in a recessed laundry area on the second story. With no HOA fees, no CDD fees and no lease restrictions this is an incredible opportunity for both those looking to relocate and for investors alike!

13. 2022-09-01
    soldstatus $226,000 Closed 734-char remark

    Show marketing remark (734 chars)

    Come check out this incredible two story one and a half bath townhome in the heart of Pinellas! Located conveniently from both the beautiful Pinellas beaches and the interstate system, this townhome is quietly nestled at the end of the Tall Pines community off of Ulmerton Rd. With an ample size living room and a screened in lanai there is plenty of space for personal comfort or entertaining guests. The two bedrooms are located upstairs, with the master bedroom having private access to the upstairs bathroom. Washer and dryer hookup in a recessed laundry area on the second story. With no HOA fees, no CDD fees and no lease restrictions this is an incredible opportunity for both those looking to relocate and for investors alike!

14. 2022-09-01
    soldstatus $226,000 Closed 734-char remark

    Show marketing remark (734 chars)

    Come check out this incredible two story one and a half bath townhome in the heart of Pinellas! Located conveniently from both the beautiful Pinellas beaches and the interstate system, this townhome is quietly nestled at the end of the Tall Pines community off of Ulmerton Rd. With an ample size living room and a screened in lanai there is plenty of space for personal comfort or entertaining guests. The two bedrooms are located upstairs, with the master bedroom having private access to the upstairs bathroom. Washer and dryer hookup in a recessed laundry area on the second story. With no HOA fees, no CDD fees and no lease restrictions this is an incredible opportunity for both those looking to relocate and for investors alike!

15. 2022-07-21
    status Pending 734-char remark

    Show marketing remark (734 chars)

    Come check out this incredible two story one and a half bath townhome in the heart of Pinellas! Located conveniently from both the beautiful Pinellas beaches and the interstate system, this townhome is quietly nestled at the end of the Tall Pines community off of Ulmerton Rd. With an ample size living room and a screened in lanai there is plenty of space for personal comfort or entertaining guests. The two bedrooms are located upstairs, with the master bedroom having private access to the upstairs bathroom. Washer and dryer hookup in a recessed laundry area on the second story. With no HOA fees, no CDD fees and no lease restrictions this is an incredible opportunity for both those looking to relocate and for investors alike!

16. 2022-07-11
    listed $222,000 Active 734-char remark

    Show marketing remark (734 chars)

    Come check out this incredible two story one and a half bath townhome in the heart of Pinellas! Located conveniently from both the beautiful Pinellas beaches and the interstate system, this townhome is quietly nestled at the end of the Tall Pines community off of Ulmerton Rd. With an ample size living room and a screened in lanai there is plenty of space for personal comfort or entertaining guests. The two bedrooms are located upstairs, with the master bedroom having private access to the upstairs bathroom. Washer and dryer hookup in a recessed laundry area on the second story. With no HOA fees, no CDD fees and no lease restrictions this is an incredible opportunity for both those looking to relocate and for investors alike!

17. 2004-10-25
    soldstatus $91,000
18. 2004-10-13
    soldstatus $91,000
19. 2004-09-16
    historical
20. 2004-09-14
    listed $89,500
21. 1985-07-01
    soldstatus $43,200

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,615 · $218/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,615 · $218/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 10% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,504
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,786
• − Property taxes: −$2,615
• − Insurance: −$874
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,880
• − Management: −$1,880
• − Depreciation: −$5,082
• Taxable income: $1,387
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$333
• After-tax cash flow: $3,753/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pinellas
• NCES district ID: 1201560
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $46,270
• Composite: 43.27/100
• National rank: #3046
• State rank: #31 of 73 in FL

Livability — Largo

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #82
• US rank: #1240

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Largo, FL
• County: Pinellas County · 939,478 people
• City population: 106,311
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 27,596
• Household income: $59,993
• Rent vs Own: 35.5% rent · 64.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1243.0

Population outlook (Pinellas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,027,532 people
• By 2030: 1,063,586 · +3.5%
• By 2040: 1,125,020 · +9.5%
• By 2050: 1,168,637 · +13.7%
• By 2075: 1,265,188 · +23.1%
• By 2100: 1,260,357 · +22.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 9% Black 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 6% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinellas

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.2) · D 46.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.5pp toward R · 2008: 8.3pp · 2024: -5.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.2 2020: D+0.2 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+5.6 2008: D+8.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -135.36%
• Current HPI: 313.5044
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.06%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+304.4% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-13 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-21 Price Changed $174,700 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-06 Price Changed $175,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-15 Price Changed $190,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-10 Price Changed $197,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-26 Listed $200,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-01 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-01 Price Changed $249,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-28 Listed $265,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-09-06 Sold (Public Records) $226,000 Public Records
• 2022-09-01 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-09-01 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-09-01 Sold (MLS) $226,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-09-01 Sold (MLS) $226,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-07-21 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-07-11 Listed $222,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-10-25 Sold (Public Records) $91,000 Public Records
• 2004-10-13 Sold (MLS) $91,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-09-16 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-09-14 Listed $89,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1985-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $43,200 Public Records

Property tax history

+11.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,615 · +6.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.