25410 Pepper Ridge Ln · Spring, TX 77373

$200,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,739 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1972 8,520 sqft lot Est $249k · 20% under $38/mo HOA · 2% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Ready for Move In!! Formal dining w/ chair moldings & mirrored wall. Entry w/ gorgeous laminate cherry wood floor. Bright kitchen w/ electric smooth cooktop. Den w/ high ceilings, tile floors, and brick wall fireplace. Covered back patio w/ tile floor. Private garage attached to the back of home. Established neighborhood. Easy access to I45 & Hardy Toll.

Key facts

• Renovated kitchen
• New roof
• New hvac system

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• NEW HVAC SYSTEM
• RENOVATED KITCHEN
• UPGRADED PEX PLUMBING
• EXPANDED LIVING DINING AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $200 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 4.5% in Spring — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#635 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Spring ISD (suburban): math 19% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #730 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: John Winship El (math 29% / reading 29%, grade F, #2,668 of 4,322 statewide, top 63%, 471 students, 72% FRL); Twin Creeks Middle (math 23% / reading 24%, grade F, #1,317 of 1,662 statewide, top 80%, 973 students, 83% FRL); Spring H S (math 12% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,497 of 1,632 statewide, top 92%, 2,760 students, 72% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 595 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($89k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask is 67% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $200,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.28%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $248,677
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
25803 Wingfield Ln	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,744 (+0%)	9mo	$249,500	$143	79
2506 Soledad Ridge Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,759 (+1%)	16mo	$259,990	$148	73
2715 Lexington Park Dr	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,772 (+2%)	10mo	$249,900	$141	67
25711 Long Hill Ln	0.29mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,737 (-0%)	18mo	$275,000	$158	66
25206 Lynbriar Ln	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,616 (-7%)	15mo	$240,000	$149	63
2838 Lexington Park Dr	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,800 (+4%)	15mo	$250,000	$139	58
2030 Lexington Woods Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,744 (+0%)	21mo	$205,000	$118	54
2710 Shady Bayou Ln	0.36mi	3/2.5	1,884 (+8%)	17mo	$171,500	$91	53
25411 Friar Lake Ln	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,893 (+9%)	16mo	$180,000	$95	50
2006 Brixham Bluff Ln	0.68mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,500 (-14%)	1mo	$230,000	$153	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-26,182
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-31,520
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77373

• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 595
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,278 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$430 /mo · $5,157/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$38
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$478
• Net cashflow: $200

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,025

Max offer price $200,000

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $38 · $456/yr
• Likely covers: electric

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-18
   remarks 670-char remark
2. 2026-06-18
   listed $200,000 Coming Soon 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,157 · $430/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,157 · $430/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,340
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$5,157
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,187
• − Management: −$2,187
• − HOA: −$456
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$669
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$161
• After-tax cash flow: $2,560/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Spring ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841220
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $51,584
• Composite: 20.12/100
• National rank: #8643
• State rank: #730 of 826 in TX

Livability — Spring

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #635
• US rank: #12101

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Spring, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 430,529
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 69,739
• Household income: $88,617
• Rent vs Own: 27.2% rent · 72.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1050.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 40% White 30% Black 23% Two or more races 22% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 32% Vietnamese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -142.98%
• Current HPI: 251.7231
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+71.0% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Coming Soon $200,000 HARMLS
• 2014-08-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2014-07-02 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2014-06-27 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2014-06-12 Pending — HARMLS
• 2014-06-06 Pending — HARMLS
• 2014-05-08 Listed $119,900 HARMLS
• 2013-01-02 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2012-11-29 Listed $109,900 HARMLS
• 2007-01-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-10-26 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2006-08-07 Listed $116,950 HARMLS
• 1999-06-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+9.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,157 · +1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.