435 Brighton Rd · Tonawanda Town, NY 14150

$299,900

6 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,104 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1960 6,969 sqft lot Est $303k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.0/30.0
• ARV discount +8.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.7/10.0
• 1% rule +7.4/10.0
• Rent growth +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks MLS

What you have been waiting for on Sought after Brighton! Close to all amenities. Partial brick 3/3 Double with automated 2 car garage and multiple parking spaces. Beautiful original hardwood floors. 2 Yr old roof with a transferrable warranty complete with new gutters, soffits and fascia!!! Garage roof done at same time as house. Brand new sump pump. Newer HWT. Both kitchens have electrical and gas hook ups for the stove. Very nice frontage with nice back yard. 24 Hrs Notice. 11-2pm and 4-6pm on Weekdays. 11-3pm on weekends. There are 2 Cats in the lower unit. Please do not let them out. Tenant is a close family friend. Willing to stay or move out before closing. Easy to show. No showings until 4/22/23 at 11 am. Offers due 5/1/23 at 1 pm. Highest and best offer. No escalation clauses.

Key facts

• Hardwood flooring
• Remodeled bathroom
• Full basement

Tags

• HARDWOOD FLOORING
• SEPARATE HEATING SYSTEMS
• RECENT ELECTRICAL IMPROVEMENTS
• REMODELED BATHROOM
• FULL BASEMENT
• DETACHED TWO-CAR GARAGE

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Two-unit multi-family property with separate gas and electric meters for each unit; Owner pays water; water included in rent; Operating expenses include water/sewer

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage with 2 spaces; Concrete parking; Two or more parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water connected; Sewer connected; Circuit breaker electrical; Cable available; High-speed internet available
• Home design: Two-story building; Resale property
• Construction: Brick and vinyl siding exterior; Copper plumbing; Asphalt roof; Full basement with sump pump
• Exterior features: Near public transit; Rectangular lot; Main thoroughfare frontage; Lot dimensions approx. 44 x 155

Interior

• Kitchen: Each unit includes an eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Two separate 3-bedroom units (each unit has 3 bedrooms)
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile; Hardwood; Varied flooring
• Bathrooms: Each unit has 1 full bathroom (2 full bathrooms total)
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s)
• Laundry & utility: Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 3-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $585 ($7k/yr) — positive. Per door: $293/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $300k).
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 4.1% in Tonawanda Town — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Kenmore-Tonawanda Union Free School District (suburban): math 44% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #453 of 590 in NY (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.8%/yr); 193 active listings in the ZIP; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,712/mo this rent would consume 62% of the median local household income ($71k/yr) (locally 1427% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.8% rent growth), your $84k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $260k; 15% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.

Recommended offer $299,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
2. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
3. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.24% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.37%
• DSCR: 1.37
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $302,976
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
425 Brighton Rd	0.02mi	5/2.0 (-1)	2,064 (-2%)	10mo	$296,890	$144	82

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.75% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.04×
• Total profit: $3,450
• Equity at exit: $44,716

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.39×
• Total profit: $116,361
• Equity at exit: $25,930

Cash invested: $83,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14150

• Rents YoY: 6.8%
• Active inventory: 193
• Price-to-rent: 13.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,712 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$649 /mo · $7,792/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$780
• Net cashflow: $585

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,971

Max offer price $299,900

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $755	-5% $670	+0% $585	+5% $501	+10% $416
Rent	-10% $292	-5% $439	+0% $585	+5% $732	+10% $879
Rate	-1.0pp $737	-0.5pp $662	base $585	+0.5pp $508	+1.0pp $429

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	3	1	$3,712
Total (2 units)			$3,712

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,975
• Closing costs: $8,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $299,900 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,900 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,900 Active 2 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   remarks 699-char remark
5. 2026-06-16
   listed $299,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $7,792 · $649/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,792 · $649/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $44,544
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,799
• − Property taxes: −$7,792
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,564
• − Management: −$3,564
• − Depreciation: −$8,724
• Taxable income: $2,602
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$624
• After-tax cash flow: $6,401/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kenmore-Tonawanda Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3616230
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $51,433
• Composite: 39.18/100
• National rank: #4024
• State rank: #453 of 590 in NY

Livability — Tonawanda Town

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tonawanda Town, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 63,948
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 41,260
• Household income: $71,406
• Rent vs Own: 27.9% rent · 72.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1427.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 13% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Philippines, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Other Indo-European 2% Spanish 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -260.43%
• Current HPI: 334.5893
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.75%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+42.8% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Listed $299,900 WNYREIS
• 2023-06-21 Sold (Public Records) $260,000 Public Records
• 2023-06-15 Sold (MLS) $260,000 WNYREIS
• 2023-05-08 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2023-05-03 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2023-04-21 Listed $210,000 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+7.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,792 · +3.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.