116 Culpepper Rd · Williamsville, NY 14221

$299,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,628 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1964 8,750 sqft lot $184/sqft · 37% below area Est $474k · 37% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• Schools +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 116 Culpepper Road – A spacious split-level home offering room to grow in a terrific Amherst location, close to a variety of shops and restaurants. This home features hardwood floors throughout, adding warmth and character to the main living spaces. Enjoy cozy evenings by the fireplace or take advantage of the additional flex room filled with natural light; perfect for a home office or additional living area. With 3 bedrooms and 1.5 baths, this home offers plenty of space to spread out. Two well-maintained mini-split systems are thoughtfully placed in the living room and primary bedroom for added comfort, while the 2024 Navien tankless water heater/boiler combo provides mod

Key facts

• 8,750 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1964

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with garage door opener
• Utilities: Public water connected; Sewer connected; Electricity connected; High-speed internet available; Cable available
• Home design: Two-story house; Existing construction
• Construction: Brick and composite siding exterior; Asphalt roof; Block foundation; Copper plumbing; Full basement with sump pump; 275 sq ft below-grade finished area
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Partial fencing; Fence

Interior

• Kitchen: Granite counters; Dishwasher; Free-standing range; Gas cooktop; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave; Oven; Refrigerator; Disposal
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom located on second floor; Second bedroom located on second floor; Third bedroom located on second floor
• Flooring: Hardwood; Ceramic tile; Tile; Varied flooring
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One half bathroom; One main-level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Ductless cooling (zoned); Ductless heating; Gas heating; Zoned heating; Baseboard heating; Circuit breaker electrical panel
• Interior features: Thermal windows; Ceiling fan(s); Entrance foyer; Separate/formal living room; Granite counters; Living/dining room configuration; See remarks
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Tankless water heater; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $299k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $382 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $299k).
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 3.5% in Williamsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#44 in NY, #693 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, commute A+, employment A+.
• Williamsville Central School District (suburban): math 64% / reading 77% proficiency, ranked #114 of 590 in NY (top 19%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 329 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($102k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $299,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.48%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $474,466
• List price: $299,000
• Delta: -36.98%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
148 Patton Pl	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,742 (+7%)	7mo	$451,148	$259	68
248 Macarthur Dr	0.38mi	3/1.5	1,732 (+6%)	7mo	$370,000	$214	66
28 Bragg Ct	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,791 (+10%)	1mo	$427,300	$239	66
15 Culpepper Rd	0.24mi	3/1.5	1,428 (-12%)	5mo	$414,500	$290	64
263 Mcnair Rd	0.44mi	3/1.5	1,769 (+9%)	7mo	$350,000	$198	59
214 Presidio Pl	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,841 (+13%)	1mo	$470,000	$255	54
1419 Maple Rd	0.29mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,424 (-12%)	8mo	$280,000	$197	52
116 Segsbury Rd	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,488 (-9%)	7mo	$329,900	$222	52
198 Hickory Hill Rd	0.64mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,577 (-3%)	9mo	$378,000	$240	50
59 Exeter Rd	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,775 (+9%)	11mo	$510,250	$287	41
292 Oakbrook Dr	0.65mi	3/2.5	1,807 (+11%)	8mo	$425,018	$235	41
23 Briarhurst Rd	0.60mi	3/2.5	1,835 (+13%)	10mo	$401,500	$219	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.01% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.80×
• Total profit: $-17,154
• Equity at exit: $44,582

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.55×
• Total profit: $46,077
• Equity at exit: $25,852

Cash invested: $83,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14221

• Rents YoY: 5.0%
• Active inventory: 329
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,295 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax from tax record: −$528 /mo · $6,342/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$692
• Net cashflow: $382

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,811

Max offer price $299,000

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,750
• Closing costs: $8,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15 Telfair Dr Buffalo, NY	4.0	2.5	1976	$4,250	$2.15	3d	1	0.04mi
116 Segsbury Rd Buffalo, NY	3.0	2.0	1488	$2,950	$1.98	23d	1	0.57mi
540 Mill St Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.5	1300	$2,095	$1.61	1d	1	0.87mi
255 Evans St Williamsville, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	975	$2,350	$2.41	1d	13	1.14mi
990 Hopkins Rd Unit G Buffalo, NY	2.0	2.0	1100	$2,200	$2.00	11d	1	1.31mi
306 Sagewood Ter Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.5	1907	$3,000	$1.57	3d	1	1.36mi
1325 N Forest Rd Buffalo, NY	1.0–3.0	1.0	870	$2,095	$2.41	1d	9	1.38mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-09
   status Pending 958-char remark
2. 2026-04-29
   listed $299,000 Active 958-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,342 · $528/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,342 · $528/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,546
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,749
• − Property taxes: −$6,342
• − Insurance: −$1,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,164
• − Management: −$3,164
• − Depreciation: −$8,698
• Taxable loss: −$65
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$16
• After-tax cash flow: $4,604/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Williamsville Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3631470
• Math proficiency: 64% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 77% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $79,907
• Composite: 62.59/100
• National rank: #678
• State rank: #114 of 590 in NY

Livability — Williamsville

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #44
• US rank: #693

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute A+ Cost of living C Crime C Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 55,255
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 55,255
• Household income: $101,615
• Rent vs Own: 25.0% rent · 75.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1956.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Asian 8% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 15% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -301.37%
• Current HPI: 322.6947
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.01%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-04-29 Listed $299,000 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,342 · +1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.