18481 Sunrise Oaks Ct · Conroe, TX 77316

$255,000

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,290 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 2005 5,323 sqft lot $111/sqft · 14% below area Est $296k · 14% under $17/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.8/30.0
• ARV discount +13.7/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This impressive 5-bedroom, 2.5-bathroom two-story home is in pristine, move-in ready condition, offering an expansive and highly functional multi-level layout that is perfectly optimized for a large household. Step inside to find a sleek, modern interior finished completely in low-maintenance vinyl/laminate flooring through the living spaces, providing exceptional durability and effortless cleanup for high-traffic areas. The heart of the home features a contemporary kitchen fully equipped with a matching suite of stainless steel appliances, creating a stylish and efficient workspace for daily meal preparation and entertaining. With five generous bedrooms, this home provides incredible flexi

Key facts

• 5,323 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2005

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area approximately 2,290
• HOA & community: Sunrise Ranch Property Owners Association; Annual association fee of $200

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces; Garage door opener
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service
• Home design: Residential property; Faces northeast; Entry level on first floor
• Construction: Built in 2005; Cement siding; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio; Fully fenced yard; Sprinkler/irrigation system; Subdivision setting; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave; Granite counters
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on second level (19 x 12); Bedroom on second level (15 x 12); Bedroom on second level (12 x 8); Bedroom on second level (11 x 12); Bedroom on second level (11 x 12)
• Flooring: Laminate; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Gas fireplace; Double vanity; Granite counters; Jetted tub; Separate shower; Window treatments; Window coverings
• Laundry & utility: Garbage disposal

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $255k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $118 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $249k (2.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $249k (2.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 3.1% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: commute F, health & safety F.
• Montgomery ISD (rural): math 63% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #49 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lake Creek H S (math 53% / reading 68%, grade C+, #268 of 1,632 statewide, top 17%, 1,649 students, 23% FRL) — zoned schools at 23% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 2300 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 10 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $249,033 (2.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.98%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $295,510
• List price: $255,000
• Delta: -12.05%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
420 Sunrise Rnch	0.44mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,265 (-1%)	1mo	$289,890	$128	72
432 Sunrise Ranch Dr	0.46mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,265 (-1%)	2mo	$316,790	$140	70
17881 Stone Terrace Ln	0.36mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,180 (-5%)	1mo	$279,990	$128	68
17744 Mill Mnr	0.52mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,267 (-1%)	1mo	$356,610	$157	66
220 Raine Manor Ct	0.56mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,284 (-0%)	2mo	$330,900	$145	65
112 Bay Bridge Ct	0.62mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,284 (-0%)	3mo	$314,220	$138	61
1046 Lake View Dr	0.71mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,216 (-3%)	0mo	$675,000	$305	54
17874 Stone Terrace Ln	0.35mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,544 (+11%)	2mo	$323,190	$127	54
412 Sunrise Ranch Dr	0.42mi	4/2.5 (-1)	1,986 (-13%)	1mo	$296,790	$149	52
18746 Timber Glen Dr	0.43mi	4/2.5 (-1)	1,986 (-13%)	2mo	$259,790	$131	52
18713 Timber Glen Dr	0.47mi	4/2.5 (-1)	1,981 (-14%)	3mo	$262,890	$133	48
17708 Mill Manor Dr	0.61mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,067 (-10%)	3mo	$298,920	$145	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.4% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-40,093
• Equity at exit: $38,021

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-49,636
• Equity at exit: $22,048

Cash invested: $71,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77316

• Home prices YoY: -10.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 2300
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,490 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,337
• Tax from tax record: −$389 /mo · $4,672/yr
• Insurance: −$106
• HOA: −$17
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$523
• Net cashflow: $118

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,342

Max offer price $255,000

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $262	-5% $190	+0% $118	+5% $45	+10% $-27
Rent	-10% $-79	-5% $19	+0% $118	+5% $216	+10% $314
Rate	-1.0pp $246	-0.5pp $182	base $118	+0.5pp $51	+1.0pp $-16

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,750
• Closing costs: $7,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18436 Sunrise Pines Dr Montgomery, TX	4.0	2.5	1952	$2,200	$1.13	44d	1	0.13mi
9913 Crescent Cove Dr Montgomery, TX	3.0–4.0	2.5–3.5	1805	$2,499	$1.38	3d	42	1.11mi
1751 Fennel Flower Dr Montgomery, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1797	$2,246	$1.25	2d	59	1.13mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $17 · $204/yr

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $255,000 Active 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   remarks 699-char remark
3. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on marketlisting id $255,000 Active 1 DOM
4. 2026-06-04
   days on market $259,900 Active 387 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $259,900 Active 386 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $259,900 Active 385 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $259,900 Active 384 DOM
8. 2026-04-21
   price $259,900 335-char remark
9. 2026-02-13
   price $264,900 335-char remark
10. 2025-10-30
    status Active 335-char remark
11. 2025-10-21
    status Pending 335-char remark
12. 2025-09-03
    price $269,997 335-char remark
13. 2025-05-12
    listed $279,900 Active 335-char remark
14. 2024-11-07
    historical
15. 2024-10-31
    listed $264,900 Active
16. 2024-10-30
    historical
17. 2024-10-09
    status Active
18. 2024-09-30
    status Pending
19. 2024-09-20
    price $264,900
20. 2024-08-29
    price $269,900
21. 2024-08-02
    price $274,900
22. 2024-06-28
    listed $284,900 Active
23. 2016-02-10
    soldstatus
24. 2016-02-09
    soldstatus Sold
25. 2016-02-08
    status Pending
26. 2016-01-26
    status Pending, Continue to Show
27. 2016-01-05
    listed $197,500 Active
28. 2007-05-11
    historical
29. 2007-04-03
    listed $161,500
30. 2007-01-08
    soldstatus
31. 2006-12-16
    historical
32. 2006-11-18
    listed $155,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,672 · $389/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,672 · $389/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,884
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,284
• − Property taxes: −$4,672
• − Insurance: −$1,275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,391
• − Management: −$2,391
• − HOA: −$204
• − Depreciation: −$7,418
• Taxable loss: −$2,750
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$660
• After-tax cash flow: $2,071/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montgomery ISD
• NCES district ID: 4831260
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $75,596
• Composite: 53.55/100
• National rank: #1445
• State rank: #49 of 826 in TX

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,694
• Household income: $124,055
• Rent vs Own: 10.9% rent · 89.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 273.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Slovak 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.44%
• Current HPI: 262.6973
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.40%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+64.5% since first listed

29 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Listed $255,000 HARMLS
• 2026-06-04 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-06-01 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-05-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $259,900 HARMLS
• 2026-02-13 Price Changed $264,900 HARMLS
• 2025-10-30 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-10-21 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-09-03 Price Changed $269,997 HARMLS
• 2025-05-12 Listed $279,900 HARMLS
• 2024-11-07 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-10-31 Listed $264,900 HARMLS
• 2024-10-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-10-09 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2024-09-30 Pending — HARMLS
• 2024-09-20 Price Changed $264,900 HARMLS
• 2024-08-29 Price Changed $269,900 HARMLS
• 2024-08-02 Price Changed $274,900 HARMLS
• 2024-06-28 Listed $284,900 HARMLS
• 2016-02-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2016-02-09 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2016-02-08 Pending — HARMLS
• 2016-01-26 Pending — HARMLS
• 2016-01-05 Listed $197,500 HARMLS
• 2007-05-11 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2007-04-03 Listed $161,500 HARMLS
• 2007-01-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-12-16 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2006-11-18 Listed $155,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,672 · -1.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.