Stanford Plan · Lakewood Ranch, FL 34211

$573,999

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,267 sqft · SingleFamily · 158 Days on market

Good condition 3-car garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.9/10.0
• Cash flow +4.9/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.2/5.0
• 1% rule +0.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This new single-level home boasts a modern and low-maintenance layout. A bedroom with an en-suite bathroom is located off the foyer, leading to a formal dining room for hosting meals and celebrations of any size. An open-concept floorplan combines the kitchen, living and dining areas, and a lanai provides an inviting space for outdoor entertainment and leisure. Two additional secondary bedrooms are tucked away to the side of the home, and the luxe owner's suite is nestled into a private rear corner, complete with a spa-inspired bathroom and walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Formal dining room
• Modern layout
• En-suite bathroom

Tags

• MODERN LAYOUT
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOORPLAN
• LANAI
• SPA-INSPIRED BATHROOM

🏗️ New construction. The $573,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $909,699.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $574k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-26k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $518k (9.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $505k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: B.D. Gullett Elementary School (math 78% / reading 73%, grade A, #211 of 2,144 statewide, top 10%, 1,121 students, 20% FRL); R. Dan Nolan Middle School (math 79% / reading 72%, grade A, #38 of 571 statewide, top 7%, 760 students, 28% FRL); Lakewood Ranch High School (math 47% / reading 63%, grade C, #135 of 667 statewide, top 20%, 2,435 students, 22% FRL) — zoned schools average 23% FRL vs 51% district-wide (27 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 69% at this address vs 52% district-wide (+17 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Manatee average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.2%/yr); 1554 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 99d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $5,177/mo this rent would consume 52% of the median local household income ($120k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $27k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 158 days — a 12% lower offer ($505k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $505,119 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 158 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.57% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.39%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.35%
• DSCR: 0.54
• GRM: 14.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $909,699
• List price: $573,999
• Delta: -36.57%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5731 Cheech Gln	0.49mi	4/3.0	2,224 (-2%)	2mo	$1,055,000	$474	73
5918 Mound Key Run	0.50mi	4/2.0	2,245 (-1%)	1mo	$730,000	$325	70
19816 Trout Ter	0.50mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,247 (-1%)	1mo	$752,997	$335	70
19622 Conch Dr	0.50mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,247 (-1%)	3mo	$719,596	$320	68
19804 Trout Ter	0.50mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,246 (-1%)	1mo	$725,000	$323	65
19728 Trout Ter	0.50mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,246 (-1%)	1mo	$750,000	$334	65
19223 Scallop Loop	0.34mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,445 (+8%)	3mo	$775,000	$317	64
18026 Fattoria Ter	0.44mi	4/3.0	2,537 (+12%)	2mo	$534,500	$211	58
5910 Mound Key Run	0.50mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,445 (+8%)	3mo	$800,000	$327	56
18249 Rockport Pl	0.71mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,318 (+2%)	3mo	$738,000	$318	56
5108 Rosado Run	0.55mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,605 (+15%)	3mo	$458,150	$176	42
5822 Brandon Run	0.69mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,006 (-12%)	3mo	$825,000	$411	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -38.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.19×
• Total profit: $-302,435
• Equity at exit: $135,639

10-year hold

• IRR: -80.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.97×
• Total profit: $-501,854
• Equity at exit: $78,654

Cash invested: $254,716 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 62 active · 52 under contract
• Months of supply: 4.6 mo (22%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $820,803 ($342/sqft)
• Median days on market: 27 d
• This list price: 16% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +17.4% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 34211

• Home prices YoY: -27.5%
• Rents YoY: -5.2%
• Active inventory: 1554
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,177 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,771
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$1,137 /mo · $13,645/yr
• Insurance: −$379
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,087
• Net cashflow: $-2,197

Break-even live

Break-even rent $7,958

Max offer price $591,781

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,568	-5% $-1,883	+0% $-2,197	+5% $-2,511	+10% $-2,826
Rent	-10% $-2,606	-5% $-2,402	+0% $-2,197	+5% $-1,993	+10% $-1,788
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,739	-0.5pp $-1,966	base $-2,197	+0.5pp $-2,433	+1.0pp $-2,673

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $227,425
• Closing costs: $27,291
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5628 Lightning Whelk Ln Bradenton, FL	4.0	3.0	2252	$4,595	$2.04	99d	1	0.02mi
5612 Lightning Whelk Ln Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	2444	$12,500	$5.11	119d	1	0.02mi
5420 Lightning Whelk Ln Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	2445	$6,000	$2.45	119d	1	0.02mi
5522 Lightning Whelk Ln Bradenton, FL	4.0	3.0	2725	$5,800	$2.13	119d	1	0.02mi
5612 Lightning Whelk Ln Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	2445	$9,000	$3.68	80d	1	0.02mi
19051 Scallop Loop Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	2445	$5,700	$2.33	5d	1	0.21mi
19051 Scallop Loop Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	2445	$5,000	$2.04	9d	1	0.21mi
5623 Mulligan Way Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.5	2359	$14,000	$5.93	119d	1	0.22mi
19219 Scallop Loop Bradenton, FL	4.0	3.0	2725	$6,000	$2.20	65d	1	0.32mi
18211 Fattoria Ter Bradenton, FL	4.0	3.0	3362	$3,600	$1.07	119d	1	0.41mi
18731 Cherrystone Way Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	2799	$8,000	$2.86	119d	1	0.46mi
19209 Cherrystone WAY #103 Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	2110	$5,000	$2.37	9d	1	0.47mi
5725 Cheech Gln Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.5	1850	$12,000	$6.49	0d	1	0.49mi
5720 Cheech Gln Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	2246	$5,500	$2.45	119d	1	0.50mi
19140 Cherrystone Way Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	2246	$8,000	$3.56	80d	1	0.52mi
18121 Metado Dr Bradenton, FL	4.0	3.0	1827	$2,900	$1.59	119d	1	0.53mi
18121 Metado Dr Bradenton, FL	4.0	3.0	1827	$2,799	$1.53	82d	1	0.53mi
19108 Cherrystone Way Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	2247	$4,600	$2.05	63d	1	0.59mi
19023 Cherrystone Way Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	2246	$5,500	$2.45	99d	1	0.59mi
19156 Cherrystone Way Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	2247	$5,000	$2.23	119d	1	0.59mi
19214 Cherrystone Way Unit 104 Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1750	$4,000	$2.29	9d	1	0.59mi
5119 Adega Way Bradenton, FL	4.0	2.0	1828	$2,990	$1.64	0d	1	0.62mi
17535 Cantarina Cv Bradenton, FL	4.0	3.5	2838	$5,495	$1.94	119d	1	0.67mi
17535 Cantarina Cv Bradenton, FL	4.0	3.5	2838	$5,495	$1.94	107d	1	0.67mi
17915 Cantarina Cv Bradenton, FL	4.0	2.5	2045	$2,999	$1.47	119d	1	0.68mi
18006 Canopy Pl Bradenton, FL	5.0	3.0	2674	$3,400	$1.27	0d	1	0.68mi
18002 Canopy Pl Bradenton, FL	4.0	3.0	2371	$2,700	$1.14	9d	1	0.69mi
18002 Canopy Pl Bradenton, FL	4.0	3.0	2371	$3,000	$1.27	99d	1	0.69mi
5907 Brandon Run Bradenton, FL	4.0	2.0	2246	$6,800	$3.03	119d	1	0.71mi
17918 Canopy Pl Bradenton, FL	4.0	2.0	1827	$2,800	$1.53	9d	1	0.72mi
17821 Cantarina Cv Bradenton, FL	4.0	2.5	2045	$3,200	$1.56	82d	1	0.74mi
5947 Brandon Run Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	2200	$13,000	$5.91	119d	1	0.75mi
17525 Hickok Belt Loop Bradenton, FL	4.0	3.0	2250	$7,800	$3.47	119d	1	0.77mi
5125 Tannin Ln Bradenton, FL	4.0	2.5	2700	$4,200	$1.56	4d	1	0.77mi
17819 Canopy Pl Bradenton, FL	4.0	2.0	1824	$2,680	$1.47	62d	1	0.78mi
17605 Cantarina Cv Bradenton, FL	4.0	2.5	2045	$3,300	$1.61	82d	1	0.78mi
18117 Gawthrop Dr #104 Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1786	$4,000	$2.24	119d	1	0.78mi
5105 Vecchio Ct Bradenton, FL	4.0	2.0	1828	$2,900	$1.59	82d	1	0.79mi
18017 Gawthrop Dr #104 Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1786	$6,000	$3.36	119d	1	0.82mi
17467 Hickok Belt Loop Bradenton, FL	4.0	3.0	2247	$12,500	$5.56	119d	1	0.83mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $571,999

Exterior

• Parking: 3-car garage / parking spaces
• Home design: Single-family plan (Stanford)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2267

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: New construction plan (Stanford)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-22
   days on market $573,999 Active 158 DOM
2. 2026-09-21
   days on market $573,999 Active 157 DOM
3. 2026-09-20
   pricedays on marketlisting id $573,999 Active 156 DOM
4. 2026-09-18
   days on market $576,999 Active 8 DOM
5. 2026-09-17
   days on market $576,999 Active 7 DOM
6. 2026-09-16
   days on market $576,999 Active 6 DOM
7. 2026-09-15
   days on market $576,999 Active 5 DOM
8. 2026-09-14
   days on market $576,999 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-09-13
   days on market $576,999 Active 3 DOM
10. 2026-09-12
    days on market $576,999 Active 2 DOM
11. 2026-09-11
    pricedays on marketlisting id $576,999 Active 1 DOM
12. 2026-09-05
    days on market $573,999 Active 141 DOM
13. 2026-09-04
    days on market $573,999 Active 140 DOM
14. 2026-09-03
    pricedays on market $573,999 Active 139 DOM
15. 2026-08-31
    days on market $571,999 Active 136 DOM
16. 2026-08-30
    days on market $571,999 Active 135 DOM
17. 2026-08-29
    days on market $571,999 Active 134 DOM
18. 2026-08-28
    days on market $571,999 Active 133 DOM
19. 2026-08-27
    days on market $571,999 Active 132 DOM
20. 2026-08-26
    days on market $571,999 Active 131 DOM
21. 2026-08-25
    days on market $571,999 Active 130 DOM
22. 2026-08-24
    days on market $571,999 Active 129 DOM
23. 2026-08-23
    days on market $571,999 Active 128 DOM
24. 2026-08-22
    days on market $571,999 Active 127 DOM
25. 2026-08-21
    days on market $571,999 Active 126 DOM
26. 2026-08-20
    days on market $571,999 Active 125 DOM
27. 2026-08-19
    days on market $571,999 Active 124 DOM
28. 2026-08-18
    days on market $571,999 Active 123 DOM
29. 2026-08-17
    days on market $571,999 Active 122 DOM
30. 2026-08-16
    days on market $571,999 Active 121 DOM
31. 2026-08-15
    days on market $571,999 Active 120 DOM
32. 2026-08-14
    days on market $571,999 Active 119 DOM
33. 2026-08-13
    days on market $571,999 Active 118 DOM
34. 2026-08-12
    days on market $571,999 Active 117 DOM
35. 2026-08-11
    days on market $571,999 Active 116 DOM
36. 2026-08-10
    days on market $571,999 Active 115 DOM
37. 2026-08-09
    days on market $571,999 Active 114 DOM
38. 2026-08-08
    days on market $571,999 Active 113 DOM
39. 2026-08-07
    days on market $571,999 Active 112 DOM
40. 2026-08-06
    days on market $571,999 Active 111 DOM
41. 2026-08-05
    days on market $571,999 Active 110 DOM
42. 2026-08-04
    days on market $571,999 Active 109 DOM
43. 2026-07-31
    days on market $571,999 Active 105 DOM
44. 2026-07-30
    days on market $571,999 Active 103 DOM
45. 2026-07-28
    days on market $571,999 Active 102 DOM
46. 2026-07-24
    days on market $571,999 Active 98 DOM
47. 2026-07-23
    days on market $571,999 Active 97 DOM
48. 2026-07-22
    days on market $571,999 Active 96 DOM
49. 2026-07-21
    days on market $571,999 Active 95 DOM
50. 2026-07-18
    days on market $571,999 Active 92 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $62,121
• − Mortgage interest: −$50,957
• − Property taxes: −$13,645
• − Insurance: −$4,548
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,970
• − Management: −$4,970
• − Depreciation: −$26,464
• Taxable loss: −$43,433
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$10,424
• After-tax cash flow: $-15,941/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $11,335–$34,005 screening

This modern single-level home is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It has a good exterior, interior, and appliances. The home is move-in ready with minor maintenance items to address. The highest-ROI updates would be to paint the exterior siding and clean the windows to enhance curb appeal and property value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Resale Clean the windows — Clean windows can make the home appear more inviting and well-maintained. ↑
• Both Install smart home technology — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more convenient and energy-efficient. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

C Composite school gradezoned avg 69/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary B.d. Gullett Elementary School A FL #211/2,144 Nat'l #2,011/41,679 Middle R. Dan Nolan Middle School A FL #38/571 Nat'l #472/14,009 High Lakewood Ranch High School C FL #135/667 Nat'l #4,413/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakewood Ranch

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 447,342 people
• City population: 52,177
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 24,980
• Household income: $119,911
• Rent vs Own: 21.7% rent · 78.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

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Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 10% Asian 3% Black 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Romanian 3% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -100.84%
• Current HPI: 265.946
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.17%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $571,999

Exterior

• Parking: 3-car garage / parking spaces
• Home design: Single-family plan (Stanford)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2267

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: New construction plan (Stanford)