4721 Burney Dr · Elfers, FL 34690

$105,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 840 sqft · Manufactured public records · 238 Days on market

Built 1981 5,000 sqft lot Est $123k · 15% under $143/mo HOA · 9% of rent ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +14.2/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Price improved! This 2/2 Sunny Florida Lakeview Home beckon you! Come Enjoy this peaceful, Golfcart friendly 55+ Active Community where you OWN your Own LAND! The Low HOA monthly fee of $ 143 includes, ground maintenance, Heated Year-Round Pool, Trash removal, Private Road, Clubhouse amenities, etc. , Short distance of shopping, restaurants, close proximity to Beaches, Historic Tarpon Springs with the famous Sponge Docks, Wine Festival, etc. Easy drive to Tampa or to go North. Measurements are approx. Buyer to verify all information that is deemed accurate. Sold As Is. Easy to show/ view.

Key facts

• Own your own land
• Golfcart friendly
• Clubhouse amenities

Tags

• LAKEVIEW HOME
• GOLFCART FRIENDLY
• HEATED YEAR-ROUND POOL
• OWN YOUR OWN LAND
• CLUBHOUSE AMENITIES
• CLOSE PROXIMITY TO BEACHES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Private maintained asphalt road; Zoning: RMH
• Financial info: Total annual fees $1,716; Furnished
• HOA & community: HOA managed by Qualified Management; Monthly HOA fee of $143 (includes common area taxes, pool, escrow reserves, grounds maintenance, recreational facilities, trash); Community amenities: clubhouse, pool, recreation facilities, shuffleboard court, street lights, deed restrictions, association recreation owned; Senior community; Pets allowed with restrictions (cats and dogs OK, breed/size/number limits; max pet weight 25 lbs); No truck/RV/motorcycle parking; Vehicle restrictions

Exterior

• Parking: Deeded parking; Driveway; Ground-level parking pad; Tandem parking; 2-space carport
• Security: Wheelchair access (community amenity)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Sewer connected; Water connected; Underground utilities
• Home design: Manufactured single-wide home; Residential property; Completed condition; Faces south; One level; Crawlspace foundation
• Construction: Built with other construction materials; Other roof
• Exterior features: Screened side porch; Awnings; Exterior lighting; Private mailbox; Rain gutters; Sidewalk; Shed(s); Mature landscaping; Level, landscaped and private lot; Near public transit; Paved; In county

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Concrete; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Thermostat; Window treatments
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located outside; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $105k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $402 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $105k).
• Recommended offer: $92k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.9% vs local median 4.6% in Elfers — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#167 in FL, #2,486 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, amenities D-.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Anclote Elementary School (math 37% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,609 of 2,144 statewide, top 77%, 420 students, 81% FRL); Paul R. Smith Middle School (math 32% / reading 38%, grade F, #416 of 571 statewide, top 74%, 994 students, 82% FRL); Anclote High School (math 28% / reading 38%, grade F, #406 of 667 statewide, top 61%, 1,205 students, 77% FRL) — zoned schools average 80% FRL vs 48% district-wide (32 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 35% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Pasco average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.5%/yr); 134 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($49k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $726 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 238 days — a 12% lower offer ($92k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $92,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 238 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.51% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.39%
• DSCR: 1.73
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $123,480
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4715 Burney Dr	0.01mi	2/2.0	864 (+3%)	12mo	$132,000	$153	85
3330 Chatford Dr	0.17mi	2/2.0	840 (0%)	13mo	$113,000	$135	81
4735 Burney Dr	0.03mi	2/2.0	896 (+7%)	13mo	$135,000	$151	77
3415 Chatford Dr	0.21mi	2/1.5	768 (-9%)	4mo	$103,000	$134	70
4920 Sherrell Dr	0.21mi	2/2.0	864 (+3%)	18mo	$127,000	$147	70
3301 Chatford Dr	0.13mi	2/2.0	960 (+14%)	2mo	$145,000	$151	68
3126 Birkdale Dr	0.11mi	2/2.0	936 (+11%)	9mo	$152,400	$163	68
3115 Bixler Ct	0.15mi	2/2.0	960 (+14%)	2mo	$87,000	$91	68
3200 Birkdale Dr	0.07mi	2/2.0	960 (+14%)	17mo	$140,000	$146	59
3241 Channing Dr	0.20mi	2/1.0	720 (-14%)	14mo	$97,000	$135	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.14×
• Total profit: $4,022
• Equity at exit: $15,656

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.64×
• Total profit: $18,917
• Equity at exit: $9,078

Cash invested: $29,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34690

• Home prices YoY: -22.4%
• Rents YoY: -2.5%
• Active inventory: 134
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,582 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$551
• Tax from tax record: −$111 /mo · $1,331/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$143
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$332
• Net cashflow: $402

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,074

Max offer price $105,000

Occupancy floor 70%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $461	-5% $431	+0% $402	+5% $372	+10% $342
Rent	-10% $277	-5% $339	+0% $402	+5% $464	+10% $527
Rate	-1.0pp $454	-0.5pp $428	base $402	+0.5pp $374	+1.0pp $347

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,250
• Closing costs: $3,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3433 Monticello St Holiday, FL	3.0	1.5	960	$1,650	$1.72	25d	1	0.23mi
3511 Cambridge St New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	936	$2,100	$2.24	6d	1	0.34mi
3421 Tricon Ln #12 Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	870	$1,095	$1.26	0d	1	0.37mi
5232 Sparrow Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	976	$1,975	$2.02	25d	1	0.52mi
4834 Salem Dr New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	864	$1,400	$1.62	0d	1	0.53mi
4723 Aegean Ave Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,636	$1.64	6d	1	0.56mi
4348 Plaza Dr Holiday, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	860	$1,499	$1.74	0d	7	0.57mi
2610 Templewood Dr Holiday, FL	3.0	1.0	1056	$1,800	$1.70	6d	1	0.62mi
4205 Jordana Way Holiday, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1027	$1,404	$1.37	4d	13	0.65mi
3439 Clydesdale Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	968	$1,395	$1.44	6d	1	0.65mi
2552 Chancery Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	816	$1,595	$1.95	25d	1	0.66mi
2509 Sweetwood Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	988	$1,650	$1.67	19d	1	0.73mi
3029 Corona Dr Holiday, FL	3.0	2.0	894	$1,950	$2.18	6d	1	0.83mi
4358 Tahitian Gardens Cir Holiday, FL	1.0	1.0	600	$1,350	$2.25	16d	1	0.88mi
4358 Tahitian Gardens Cir Unit G Holiday, FL	1.0	1.0	600	$1,350	$2.25	25d	1	0.88mi
4133 Grayton Dr New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.5	1068	$1,727	$1.62	6d	1	0.89mi
5606 Mirada Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	864	$1,550	$1.79	16d	1	0.90mi
4365 Tahitian Gardens Cir Unit C Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	825	$1,300	$1.58	0d	1	0.90mi
4356 Tahitian Gardens Cir Unit C Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	825	$1,350	$1.64	25d	1	0.90mi
4124 Flamingo Dr New Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	744	$1,500	$2.02	16d	1	0.92mi
4124 Flamingo Dr New Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	744	$1,500	$2.02	5d	1	0.92mi
4823 Longwood Ave Holiday, FL	3.0	1.0	1122	$1,800	$1.60	6d	1	0.92mi
4354 Tahitian Gardens Cir Unit F Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	825	$1,500	$1.82	25d	1	0.92mi
4318 Tahitian Gardens Cir Unit B Holiday, FL	1.0	1.0	576	$1,200	$2.08	25d	1	0.96mi
4351 Tahitian Gardens Cir Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	825	$1,150	$1.39	25d	1	0.97mi
5020 Vickers Dr New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	863	$1,495	$1.73	0d	1	0.98mi
4313 Tahitian Gardens Cir Unit C Holiday, FL	2.0	1.5	825	$1,300	$1.58	16d	1	0.99mi
3516 Sheryl Hill Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	2.0	848	$1,595	$1.88	25d	1	1.00mi
4326 Tahitian Gardens Cir Unit 14E Holiday, FL	2.0	1.5	768	$2,000	$2.60	25d	1	1.05mi
4209 Touchton Pl New Port Richey, FL	1.0	1.0	624	$1,300	$2.08	18d	1	1.05mi
4221 Touchton Pl New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	888	$1,300	$1.46	25d	1	1.07mi
4337 Tahitian Gardens Cir Unit F Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	768	$1,500	$1.95	25d	1	1.08mi
2122 Ranchita Trl Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	648	$1,399	$2.16	25d	1	1.11mi
2117 Calusa Trl Unit B Holiday, FL	1.0	1.0	708	$1,195	$1.69	0d	1	1.12mi
4334 Tahitian Gardens Cir Unit C Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	768	$1,450	$1.89	25d	1	1.13mi
3445 Wiltshire Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.5	992	$1,450	$1.46	23d	1	1.13mi
2132 Kepner Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	920	$1,295	$1.41	22d	1	1.18mi
3612 Springfield Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.5	1040	$1,450	$1.39	19d	1	1.19mi
3742 Darlington Rd Holiday, FL	2.0	1.5	936	$1,800	$1.92	25d	1	1.23mi
4408 Rustic Dr New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	1101	$1,500	$1.36	25d	1	1.24mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $143 · $1,716/yr
• Likely covers: trashpool

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $105,000 Active 238 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $105,000 Active 237 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $105,000 Active 236 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $105,000 Active 235 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $105,000 Active 233 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $105,000 Active 229 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $105,000 Active 228 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $105,000 Active 227 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $105,000 Active 224 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $105,000 Active 223 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $105,000 Active 222 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $105,000 Active 221 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $105,000 Active 220 DOM
14. 2026-04-24
    price $105,000
15. 2025-10-23
    listed $113,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,331 · $111/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,331 · $111/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,985
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,882
• − Property taxes: −$1,331
• − Insurance: −$525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,519
• − Management: −$1,519
• − HOA: −$1,716
• − Depreciation: −$3,055
• Taxable income: $3,439
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$825
• After-tax cash flow: $3,993/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Elfers

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #167
• US rank: #2486

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Elfers, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• City population: 33,730
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 12,498
• Household income: $49,401
• Rent vs Own: 33.9% rent · 66.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 625.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 11% Black 5% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 7% Cuban 3% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 16% Arabic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -91.40%
• Current HPI: 316.5846
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.49%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-7.1% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $105,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-23 Listed $113,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+5.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,331 · +4.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.