4190 Old Indian Rd · Brodnax, VA 23920

$269,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,156 sqft · SingleFamily · 45 Days on market

Built 1998 0.75 ac lot $125/sqft · 66% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.5/10.0
• Cash flow +6.2/30.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0
• DSCR +0.5/10.0

Listing remarks

Relax, unwind, and spread out!!! This property offers appx. 2156 Sq. Ft. of pure country living on a large lot (. 75 Acre). From the front porch, enter a spacious combination room consisting of family room with wood burning fireplace and dining area with ample room for gatherings or game night. Kitchen/breakfast nook on back of home has lots of windows, cabinets, and counter space and makes a great entertaining space. Split floor plan with two bedrooms and a full hall bathroom on one side and primary suite on the other end. Primary suite offers sitting/office area, his and hers bathrooms (yes two bathrooms) and a walk thru closet between. French doors opening onto rear deck. Storage under d

Key facts

• Breakfast nook
• Split floor plan
• Primary suite

Tags

• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• BREAKFAST NOOK
• SPLIT FLOOR PLAN
• PRIMARY SUITE
• SITTING OFFICE AREA
• HIS AND HERS BATHROOMS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Private well water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Residential property (Residential/Vacation); Double wide mobile home; One story
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Rear porch; Deck; Storage structure; Has a view; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Electric range; Refrigerator; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 6
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Walk-in closets; Insulated windows; Wood-burning fireplace in family room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $269k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-488 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $198k (26.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $174k (35.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $174k (35.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#403 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Brunswick County Public School District (rural): math 24% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #130 of 131 in VA (top 99%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: James S. Russell Middle (math 16% / reading 38%, grade F, #335 of 342 statewide, top 98%, 312 students, 99% FRL); Brunswick High (math 22% / reading 67%, grade F, #310 of 319 statewide, top 98%, 426 students, 99% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 73% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 26 active listings in the ZIP; 37 units permitted in Brunswick County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $8k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Brunswick County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($261k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $173,581 (35.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.77%
• DSCR: 0.65
• GRM: 12.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $786,621
• List price: $269,000
• Delta: -65.80%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.03% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.02×
• Total profit: $1,829
• Equity at exit: $121,443

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.66×
• Total profit: $49,551
• Equity at exit: $187,540

Cash invested: $75,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23920

• Home prices YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 26
• Price-to-rent: 12.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,736 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,411
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$336 /mo · $4,035/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$365
• Net cashflow: $-488

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,353

Max offer price $198,428

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-302	-5% $-395	+0% $-488	+5% $-581	+10% $-674
Rent	-10% $-625	-5% $-556	+0% $-488	+5% $-419	+10% $-351
Rate	-1.0pp $-352	-0.5pp $-419	base $-488	+0.5pp $-557	+1.0pp $-628

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,250
• Closing costs: $8,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $269,000 Active 45 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $269,000 Active 44 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $269,000 Active 42 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $269,000 Active 41 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $269,000 Active 40 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $269,000 Active 39 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $269,000 Active 38 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $269,000 Active 37 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $269,000 Active 36 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $269,000 Active 33 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $269,000 Active 32 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $269,000 Active 31 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $269,000 Active 30 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $269,000 Active 27 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $269,000 Active 26 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $269,000 Active 25 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $269,000 Active 24 DOM
18. 2026-05-07
    listed $269,000 Active 761-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,830
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,068
• − Property taxes: −$4,035
• − Insurance: −$1,345
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,666
• − Management: −$1,666
• − Depreciation: −$7,825
• Taxable loss: −$10,777
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,586
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,266/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brunswick County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100480
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -44.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $37,085
• Composite: 29.44/100
• National rank: #6520
• State rank: #130 of 131 in VA

Livability — Brodnax

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #403
• US rank: #16750

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,080

Population outlook (Brunswick County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 14,860 people
• By 2030: 13,946 · -6.2%
• By 2040: 12,029 · -19.1%
• By 2050: 10,370 · -30.2%
• By 2075: 7,708 · -48.1%
• By 2100: 5,718 · -61.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Black 33% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Korean 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brunswick

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+8.5) · D 54.1% · R 45.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: 26.5pp · 2024: 8.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+8.5 2020: D+15.0 2016: D+18.7 2012: D+25.3 2008: D+26.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.03%
• Current HPI: 93.8737
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Listed $269,000 RVLG

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $516 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.