6457 State Route 80 · Tully, NY 13020

$49,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,044 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 83 Days on market

Built 1890 0.49 ac lot $48/sqft · 46% below area Est $93k · 46% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Set in the peaceful countryside of Fabius, this property offers a great opportunity for anyone looking to bring a home back to life. The lot provides space, privacy, and classic rural views, while the house itself is ready for rehab and customization. A practical layout, natural light, and a scenic setting make this a solid project for investors, contractors, or buyers seeking a place they can truly make their own. Conveniently located near Tully, Lafayette, and outdoor recreation, it’s a promising canvas in a beautiful Central New York location.

Key facts

• Outdoor recreation
• Natural light
• Scenic setting

Tags

• NATURAL LIGHT
• SCENIC SETTING
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED
• OUTDOOR RECREATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $555 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $47k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 19.6% vs local median 1.7% in Tully — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#800 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Tully Central School District (rural): math 53% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #308 of 590 in NY (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Tully Elementary School (math 47% / reading 52%, grade D, #1,085 of 2,108 statewide, top 56%, 409 students, 32% FRL); Tully Junior-Senior High School (math 57% / reading 52%, grade C-, #912 of 1,100 statewide, top 85%, 333 students, 34% FRL).
• Market conditions: 2 active listings in the ZIP; 616 units permitted in Onondaga County in 2024 (256 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($345 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Onondaga County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($47k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1890 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $46,906 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1890 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.32% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 47.66%
• DSCR: 3.12
• GRM: 3.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $92,726
• List price: $49,900
• Delta: -46.19%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 52.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.96×
• Total profit: $41,381
• Equity at exit: $22,437

10-year hold

• IRR: 52.5%
• Equity multiple: 8.00×
• Total profit: $97,826
• Equity at exit: $34,578

Cash invested: $13,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13020

• Active inventory: 2
• Price-to-rent: 3.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,158 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax from tax record: −$78 /mo · $933/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$243
• Net cashflow: $555

Break-even live

Break-even rent $456

Max offer price $49,900

Occupancy floor 47%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $583	-5% $569	+0% $555	+5% $541	+10% $527
Rent	-10% $463	-5% $509	+0% $555	+5% $601	+10% $646
Rate	-1.0pp $580	-0.5pp $568	base $555	+0.5pp $542	+1.0pp $529

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,475
• Closing costs: $1,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $49,900 Active 83 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $49,900 Active 82 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $49,900 Active 81 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $49,900 Active 80 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $49,900 Active 79 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $49,900 Active 77 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $49,900 Active 76 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $49,900 Active 73 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $49,900 Active 72 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $49,900 Active 71 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $49,900 Active 68 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $49,900 Active 67 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $49,900 Active 66 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $49,900 Active 65 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $49,900 Active 64 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $49,900 Active 63 DOM
17. 2026-03-28
    listed $49,900 Active 558-char remark

    Show marketing remark (558 chars)

    Set in the peaceful countryside of Fabius, this property offers a great opportunity for anyone looking to bring a home back to life. The lot provides space, privacy, and classic rural views, while the house itself is ready for rehab and customization. A practical layout, natural light, and a scenic setting make this a solid project for investors, contractors, or buyers seeking a place they can truly make their own. Conveniently located near Tully, Lafayette, and outdoor recreation, it’s a promising canvas in a beautiful Central New York location.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $933 · $78/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $933 · $78/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,900
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,795
• − Property taxes: −$933
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,112
• − Management: −$1,112
• − Depreciation: −$1,452
• Taxable income: $6,247
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,499
• After-tax cash flow: $5,160/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tully Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3629130
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $67,026
• Composite: 46.91/100
• National rank: #2365
• State rank: #308 of 590 in NY

Livability — Tully

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #800
• US rank: #15471

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 5,297
• Population (ZIP): 117

Population outlook (Onondaga County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 467,894 people
• By 2030: 463,381 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 447,697 · -4.3%
• By 2050: 426,399 · -8.9%
• By 2075: 373,661 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 307,967 · -34.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Scottish 19% Lithuanian 3% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Onondaga

• 2024 margin: D (+17.3) · D 58.6% · R 41.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.0pp toward R · 2008: 20.3pp · 2024: 17.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+17.3 2020: D+20.6 2016: D+12.8 2012: D+21.1 2008: D+20.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-28 Listed $49,900 CNYIS

Property tax history

+9.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $933 · -57.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.