115 Fernwood Dr · Gun Barrel City, TX 75156

$117,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,144 sqft · Manufactured public records · 24 Days on market

Built 1997 5,532 sqft lot Est $141k · 17% under $4/mo HOA

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.2/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

3 bed 2 bath manufactured home near Cedar Creek reservoir in Oak Harbor. Minutes from restaurants and shopping, and all that Mabank and Gun Barrell City have to offer!

Key facts

• 5,532 sq ft lot
• Built 1997
• Listed 23 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Offering terms include Cash and Conventional
• HOA & community: Mandatory association (Oak Harbor POA); Annual association fee of $50; Association fee covers grounds maintenance

Exterior

• Parking: On-site parking
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Septic
• Home design: Mobile home; Single-story
• Construction: Built in 1997
• Exterior features: Lot in Oak Harbor subdivision; Less than 0.5 acre lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the main level)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; One living area; One dining area; Total of 4 rooms
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $117k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $588 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $117k).
• Recommended offer: $115k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.3% vs local median 3.3% in Gun Barrel City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#519 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Mabank ISD (town): math 47% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #273 of 826 in TX (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.8%/yr); 694 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 263 units permitted in Henderson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($61k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $809 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $33k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($115k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 10 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $28k; list at $117k implies a 319% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 60% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $115,245 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.42% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.54%
• DSCR: 1.96
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $140,712
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
243 E Acres	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,215 (+6%)	19mo	$150,000	$123	62
242 Ben Lacy Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,144 (0%)	21mo	$149,900	$131	54
150 Tanglewood Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,276 (+12%)	13mo	$90,000	$71	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.42×
• Total profit: $13,605
• Equity at exit: $17,445

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.26×
• Total profit: $41,152
• Equity at exit: $10,116

Cash invested: $32,760 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75156

• Rents YoY: -5.8%
• Active inventory: 694
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,662 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$614
• Tax from tax record: −$59 /mo · $703/yr
• Insurance: −$49
• HOA: −$4
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$349
• Net cashflow: $588

Break-even live

Break-even rent $918

Max offer price $117,000

Occupancy floor 60%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,250
• Closing costs: $3,510
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
367 Box Rd Gun Barrel City, TX	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,600	$1.32	43d	1	0.41mi
112 Queenswood Dr Mabank, TX	4.0	2.0	1376	$1,595	$1.16	43d	1	0.59mi
602 Legendary Ln Gun Barrel City, TX	3.0	2.0	1452	$1,600	$1.10	43d	1	1.12mi
114 Timber Crst Mabank, TX	2.0	2.0	950	$1,300	$1.37	43d	1	1.41mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $4 · $48/yr

Listing history 46 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $117,000 Active 24 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $117,000 Active 23 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $117,000 Active 22 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $117,000 Active 21 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $117,000 Active 20 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $117,000 Active 18 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $117,000 Active 17 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $117,000 Active 14 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $117,000 Active 13 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $117,000 Active 12 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $117,000 Active 9 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $117,000 Active 8 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $117,000 Active 7 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $117,000 Active 6 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $117,000 Active 5 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $117,000 Active 4 DOM
17. 2026-05-06
    listed $117,000 Active
18. 2025-02-07
    historical
19. 2025-01-02
    price $148,000
20. 2025-01-02
    price $148,000
21. 2024-11-13
    price $150,000
22. 2024-11-13
    price $150,000
23. 2024-10-30
    listed $155,000 Active
24. 2024-10-29
    listed $155,000 Active
25. 2022-05-19
    soldstatus Closed
26. 2022-05-08
    status Pending
27. 2022-05-05
    price $125,000
28. 2022-03-22
    listed $175,000 Active
29. 2021-10-08
    historical
30. 2021-07-21
    listed $75,000 Active
31. 2019-12-09
    historical
32. 2019-10-18
    price $52,500
33. 2019-09-05
    listed $55,000 Active
34. 2017-02-03
    soldstatus Sold
35. 2017-01-09
    status Pending
36. 2016-12-29
    historical Active Option Contract
37. 2016-11-09
    status Active
38. 2016-10-28
    status Pending
39. 2016-10-07
    listed $49,900 Active
40. 2011-02-23
    historical
41. 2011-01-10
    status Pending
42. 2010-11-05
    listed $49,900 Active
43. 2010-09-20
    soldstatus
44. 2010-09-07
    historical
45. 2010-08-10
    listed $16,800
46. 2010-06-09
    soldstatus $27,931

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $703 · $59/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,141 · $178/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,438/yr (+$120/mo · 204.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 60% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,946
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,554
• − Property taxes: −$703
• − Insurance: −$585
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,596
• − Management: −$1,596
• − HOA: −$48
• − Depreciation: −$3,404
• Taxable income: $5,461
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,311
• After-tax cash flow: $5,748/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mabank ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828680
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $40,321
• Composite: 38.15/100
• National rank: #4267
• State rank: #273 of 826 in TX

Livability — Gun Barrel City

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #519
• US rank: #10212

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Henderson County · 34,977 people
• Metro: Athens, TX
• Population (ZIP): 16,333
• Household income: $60,867
• Rent vs Own: 18.5% rent · 81.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 400.0

Population outlook (Henderson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 80,471 people
• By 2030: 80,608 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 80,087 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 78,208 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 72,423 · -10.0%
• By 2100: 61,012 · -24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 7% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% European 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Henderson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.5) · D 18.0% · R 81.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.8pp toward R · 2008: -44.6pp · 2024: -63.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.5 2020: R+60.2 2016: R+60.0 2012: R+54.8 2008: R+44.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -216.77%
• Current HPI: 199.8108
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.76%
• Metro: Athens, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+318.9% since first listed

30 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Listed $117,000 NTREIS
• 2025-02-07 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-01-02 Price Changed $148,000 NTREIS
• 2025-01-02 Price Changed $148,000 GTAR
• 2024-11-13 Price Changed $150,000 NTREIS
• 2024-11-13 Price Changed $150,000 GTAR
• 2024-10-30 Listed $155,000 GTAR
• 2024-10-29 Listed $155,000 NTREIS
• 2022-05-19 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2022-05-08 Pending — NTREIS
• 2022-05-05 Price Changed $125,000 NTREIS
• 2022-03-22 Listed $175,000 NTREIS
• 2021-10-08 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2021-07-21 Listed $75,000 NTREIS
• 2019-12-09 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2019-10-18 Price Changed $52,500 NTREIS
• 2019-09-05 Listed $55,000 NTREIS
• 2017-02-03 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2017-01-09 Pending — NTREIS
• 2016-12-29 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2016-11-09 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2016-10-28 Pending — NTREIS
• 2016-10-07 Listed $49,900 NTREIS
• 2011-02-23 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2011-01-10 Pending — NTREIS
• 2010-11-05 Listed $49,900 NTREIS
• 2010-09-20 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2010-09-07 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2010-08-10 Listed $16,800 NTREIS
• 2010-06-09 Sold (Public Records) $27,931 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $703 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.