1113 Big Oak Dr · Poinciana, FL 33898

$195,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,560 sqft · Manufactured public records · 314 Days on market

Built 2007 0.29 ac lot $8/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful well maintained 4 bedroom, 2 bathroom mobile home. The home features an open floorplan, indoor laundry room and a fireplace. A must see for anyone that loves country living, but still enjoys the opportunity to visit the nearby major cities. Nestled between Tampa and Orlando. It includes a 2 car carport and two sheds for plenty of storage space. Call today to schedule an appointment.

Key facts

• 0.29-acre lot
• 0.29 acre lot
• Parking

Tags

• 0.29-ACRE LOT
• SPLIT-BEDROOM FLOOR PLAN
• OPEN LIVING AND DINING AREAS
• QUIET RURAL NEIGHBORHOOD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $247 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $195k).
• Recommended offer: $172k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 4.3% in Poinciana — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#859 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 500 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 314 days — a 12% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $171,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 314 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.43%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-15,848
• Equity at exit: $29,075

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.12×
• Total profit: $6,524
• Equity at exit: $16,860

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33898

• Home prices YoY: -15.1%
• Active inventory: 500
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,990 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax from tax record: −$213 /mo · $2,554/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$8
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$418
• Net cashflow: $247

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,677

Max offer price $195,000

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1133 Big Oak Dr Lake Wales, FL	3.0	2.0	1120	$1,500	$1.34	23d	1	0.05mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $8 · $96/yr

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $195,000 Active 314 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $195,000 Active 313 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $195,000 Active 312 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $195,000 Active 311 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $195,000 Active 309 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $195,000 Active 306 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $195,000 Active 305 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $195,000 Active 304 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $195,000 Active 303 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $195,000 Active 300 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $195,000 Active 298 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $195,000 Active 297 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $195,000 Active 296 DOM
14. 2026-03-25
    status Pending
15. 2026-01-06
    price $175,000
16. 2025-10-28
    price $199,000
17. 2025-09-23
    price $205,000
18. 2025-07-26
    price $215,000
19. 2025-06-06
    listed $220,000 Active
20. 2022-07-22
    soldstatus $206,500
21. 2022-07-19
    soldstatus $206,500 Closed 395-char remark

    Show marketing remark (395 chars)

    Beautiful well maintained 4 bedroom, 2 bathroom mobile home. The home features an open floorplan, indoor laundry room and a fireplace. A must see for anyone that loves country living, but still enjoys the opportunity to visit the nearby major cities. Nestled between Tampa and Orlando. It includes a 2 car carport and two sheds for plenty of storage space. Call today to schedule an appointment.

22. 2022-05-23
    status Pending 395-char remark

    Show marketing remark (395 chars)

    Beautiful well maintained 4 bedroom, 2 bathroom mobile home. The home features an open floorplan, indoor laundry room and a fireplace. A must see for anyone that loves country living, but still enjoys the opportunity to visit the nearby major cities. Nestled between Tampa and Orlando. It includes a 2 car carport and two sheds for plenty of storage space. Call today to schedule an appointment.

23. 2022-05-16
    listed $199,999 Active 395-char remark

    Show marketing remark (395 chars)

    Beautiful well maintained 4 bedroom, 2 bathroom mobile home. The home features an open floorplan, indoor laundry room and a fireplace. A must see for anyone that loves country living, but still enjoys the opportunity to visit the nearby major cities. Nestled between Tampa and Orlando. It includes a 2 car carport and two sheds for plenty of storage space. Call today to schedule an appointment.

24. 2019-06-28
    soldstatus $115,000 Sold 858-char remark

    Show marketing remark (858 chars)

    This 4/2 with an open/split floor plan is located in the serene community of Lake Rosalie Oaks. You'll feel like you live in the country in this fishermen's paradise located very close to Lake Rosalie. At 4,578 acres Lake Rosalie offers excellent bass fishing and is part of a chain of lakes including Lake Kissimmee! Your new home offers a wood burning fireplace to relax in front of after a day of work or play. The large yard is just waiting for you to put those finishing touches whether it be a swimming pool, playground or firepit or do it all (it's big enough) and be the perfect location for those family and friend get togethers!! You have 2 storage sheds waiting for your tools and toys. This home is perfect for the budding family, the completed family or the couple that enjoys visitors!! Don't let this move-in ready home slip away. .. ….

25. 2019-06-28
    soldstatus $115,000

    Show marketing remark (858 chars)

    This 4/2 with an open/split floor plan is located in the serene community of Lake Rosalie Oaks. You'll feel like you live in the country in this fishermen's paradise located very close to Lake Rosalie. At 4,578 acres Lake Rosalie offers excellent bass fishing and is part of a chain of lakes including Lake Kissimmee! Your new home offers a wood burning fireplace to relax in front of after a day of work or play. The large yard is just waiting for you to put those finishing touches whether it be a swimming pool, playground or firepit or do it all (it's big enough) and be the perfect location for those family and friend get togethers!! You have 2 storage sheds waiting for your tools and toys. This home is perfect for the budding family, the completed family or the couple that enjoys visitors!! Don't let this move-in ready home slip away. .. ….

26. 2019-05-19
    status Pending 858-char remark

    Show marketing remark (858 chars)

    This 4/2 with an open/split floor plan is located in the serene community of Lake Rosalie Oaks. You'll feel like you live in the country in this fishermen's paradise located very close to Lake Rosalie. At 4,578 acres Lake Rosalie offers excellent bass fishing and is part of a chain of lakes including Lake Kissimmee! Your new home offers a wood burning fireplace to relax in front of after a day of work or play. The large yard is just waiting for you to put those finishing touches whether it be a swimming pool, playground or firepit or do it all (it's big enough) and be the perfect location for those family and friend get togethers!! You have 2 storage sheds waiting for your tools and toys. This home is perfect for the budding family, the completed family or the couple that enjoys visitors!! Don't let this move-in ready home slip away. .. ….

27. 2019-04-22
    listed $115,000 Active 858-char remark

    Show marketing remark (858 chars)

    This 4/2 with an open/split floor plan is located in the serene community of Lake Rosalie Oaks. You'll feel like you live in the country in this fishermen's paradise located very close to Lake Rosalie. At 4,578 acres Lake Rosalie offers excellent bass fishing and is part of a chain of lakes including Lake Kissimmee! Your new home offers a wood burning fireplace to relax in front of after a day of work or play. The large yard is just waiting for you to put those finishing touches whether it be a swimming pool, playground or firepit or do it all (it's big enough) and be the perfect location for those family and friend get togethers!! You have 2 storage sheds waiting for your tools and toys. This home is perfect for the budding family, the completed family or the couple that enjoys visitors!! Don't let this move-in ready home slip away. .. ….

28. 2006-05-04
    soldstatus $60,000
29. 1996-06-06
    soldstatus $38,800

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,554 · $213/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,554 · $213/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 17% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,875
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$2,554
• − Insurance: −$975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,910
• − Management: −$1,910
• − HOA: −$96
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable loss: −$166
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$40
• After-tax cash flow: $3,004/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Poinciana

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #859
• US rank: #21760

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 91,336
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 18,527
• Household income: $57,224
• Rent vs Own: 12.6% rent · 87.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 148.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 10% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 17% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -60.62%
• Current HPI: 340.6056
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+351.0% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-25 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-06 Price Changed $175,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-28 Price Changed $199,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-23 Price Changed $205,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-26 Price Changed $215,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-06 Listed $220,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-07-22 Sold (Public Records) $206,500 Public Records
• 2022-07-19 Sold (MLS) $206,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-05-23 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-05-16 Listed $199,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-06-28 Sold (Public Records) $115,000 Public Records
• 2019-06-28 Sold (MLS) $115,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-05-19 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-04-22 Listed $115,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-05-04 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records
• 1996-06-06 Sold (Public Records) $38,800 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,554 · +7.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.