4751 Birch Bay Lynden Rd #170 · Birch Bay, WA 98230

$329,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,188 sqft · Condo public records · 20 Days on market

Built 2000 $130/mo HOA · 6% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.0/30.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• DSCR +0.3/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Latitude 49, be on vacation all year long! Close to the beach, this 360 day home is move in ready, newly painted inside and out. A sunporch greets you with another space to enjoy this warm and cozy home. Very generous 2 bedrooms, 2 bath home boasts beautiful new flooring and NEW gas HWT, newer roof (home & shed) and skylights, new microwave & garbage disposal, newer gas furnace (2020) & more. Roomy shed in the back offers storage and back yard is perfect for a private space to enjoy your own patio space. The amenities in this community are amazing with an outside pool & hot tub, exercise room, tennis and pickle ball courts, and more. Huge log club house o

Key facts

• Sunporch
• New garbage disposal
• Newer roof

Tags

• SUNPORCH
• NEW FLOORING
• NEW GAS HWT
• NEWER ROOF
• NEW MICROWAVE
• NEW GARBAGE DISPOSAL

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in a community of 316 units; Bus line nearby
• Financial info: Listing terms: Cash or Conventional
• HOA & community: Monthly HOA fee of $130; HOA includes common area maintenance, road maintenance, security, snow removal, and trash; Community amenities: athletic court, clubhouse, exercise room, game/rec room, garden space, laundry room, playground, outdoor pool, RV parking, gated entry, high-speed internet available

Exterior

• Parking: 2 uncovered off-street parking spaces; RV parking available
• Security: Gated community; Security gate and security service
• Utilities: Natural gas; Water & sewer: Birch Bay Water/Sewer; Power: PSE; Cable: Xfinity; Internet: Xfinity
• Home design: Detached condominium (manufactured house, double wide); One story; Entry at main level; Faces east; Unit has a view; Remodeled/updated
• Construction: Cement plank construction; Composition roof; Manufactured structure (double wide)
• Exterior features: Cement plank exterior; Shed in back of lot; Balcony/Deck/Patio; Yard; Curbs; Dead-end street; Paved; Secluded setting

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas cooking; Microwave; Refrigerator; Stove/Range
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (both on main level)
• Flooring: Laminate; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 three-quarter bathroom; 1 bathtub; 2 showers
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: Skylights; Vaulted ceilings; Walk-in closet(s); Water heater (gas, located in laundry room); Window coverings included; Insulated windows; Cooking gas hookup; Dryer electric hookup
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry room with electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath condo listed at $329k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-636 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $237k (28.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $224k (32.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $224k (32.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.0% vs local median 2.6% in Birch Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#406 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A; Watch: cost of living D+, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Blaine School District (town): math 49% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #120 of 291 in WA (top 41%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Blaine Elementary School (463 students, 54% FRL); Blaine High School (609 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools average 50% FRL vs 33% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 454 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,190 units permitted in Whatcom County in 2024 (327 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($87k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $35k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $33k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Whatcom County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$57k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($324k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $135k; list at $329k implies a 144% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $223,801 (32.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.97%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.28%
• DSCR: 0.63
• GRM: 12.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.51×
• Total profit: $139,038
• Equity at exit: $296,389

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.80×
• Total profit: $441,966
• Equity at exit: $639,175

Cash invested: $92,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98230

• Home prices YoY: 14.0%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 454
• Price-to-rent: 12.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,238 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,725
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$411 /mo · $4,935/yr
• Insurance: −$137
• HOA: −$130
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$470
• Net cashflow: $-636

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,043

Max offer price $237,025

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-408	-5% $-522	+0% $-636	+5% $-749	+10% $-863
Rent	-10% $-812	-5% $-724	+0% $-636	+5% $-547	+10% $-459
Rate	-1.0pp $-470	-0.5pp $-552	base $-636	+0.5pp $-721	+1.0pp $-808

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $82,250
• Closing costs: $9,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7650 Birch Bay Dr Blaine, WA	3.0	1.5	1036	$2,175	$2.10	14d	1	1.03mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $130 · $1,560/yr
• Likely covers: trashgaspool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $329,000 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $329,000 Active 19 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $329,000 Active 18 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $329,000 Active 17 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $329,000 Active 15 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $329,000 Active 14 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $329,000 Active 12 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $329,000 Active 11 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $329,000 Active 10 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $329,000 Active 9 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $329,000 Active 6 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $329,000 Active 4 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $329,000 Active 3 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $329,000 Active 2 DOM
15. 2026-05-29
    listed $329,000 Active
16. 2012-08-06
    historical
17. 2012-08-06
    soldstatus $134,900 Sold
18. 2012-08-03
    soldstatus $134,900
19. 2012-07-10
    status Pending
20. 2012-06-22
    status Pending Inspection
21. 2012-06-22
    status Pending Feasibility
22. 2012-05-25
    listed $134,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥81°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,856
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,429
• − Property taxes: −$4,935
• − Insurance: −$1,645
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,148
• − Management: −$2,148
• − HOA: −$1,560
• − Depreciation: −$9,571
• Taxable loss: −$13,581
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,259
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,368/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Blaine School District
• NCES district ID: 5300570
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,085
• Composite: 47.05/100
• National rank: #5128
• State rank: #120 of 291 in WA

Livability — Birch Bay

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #406
• US rank: #16180

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime C+ Employment C+ Housing A Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Birch Bay, WA
• County: Whatcom County · 209,776 people
• Metro: Bellingham, WA
• Population (ZIP): 18,744
• Household income: $86,623
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 454.0

Population outlook (Whatcom County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 240,408 people
• By 2030: 254,667 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 281,365 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 307,592 · +27.9%
• By 2075: 375,576 · +56.2%
• By 2100: 421,637 · +75.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 3% Pacific Islander 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 6% Iranian 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Whatcom

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+24.9) · D 60.8% · R 35.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 18.0pp · 2024: 24.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+24.9 2020: D+23.9 2016: D+17.7 2012: D+12.1 2008: D+18.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 106.58%
• Current HPI: 868.68
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.10%
• Metro: Bellingham, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+143.9% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $329,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-08-06 Delisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-08-06 Sold (MLS) $134,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-08-03 Sold (Public Records) $134,900 Public Records
• 2012-07-10 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-06-22 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-06-22 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-05-25 Listed $134,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+5.4%/yr

Latest (2026): $348 · -22.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.