307 Mary Ln · Varna, NY 14850

$65,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured · 3 Days on market

Built 1985 Est $126k · 49% under ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

A wonderful surprise, affordable living in Ithaca! This lovingly maintained and updated double wide mobile home has new floors in the living room, bathroom, and bedrooms. Stay warm and cozy this winter with the pellet stove. Relax in the hammock by a serene lake under mature trees in the summer. With three bedrooms with generous closets, 2 full bathrooms, a laundry room and a dining room, this is a comfortable and well planned home. Upgrades include custom built in shelves and artful tiling, a dishwasher, reverse osmosis water filter, garbage disposal, raised garden beds, a shed, a carport and a large deck. The lot rental includes water, septic, and taxes. Buyer must receive approval through Jim Ray's Mobile Home Inc. This is truly convenient living: on the TCAT bus route, close to Cornell, and the East Hill Plaza shops and restaurants.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Pond views
• Storage shed

Tags

• POND VIEWS
• WATERFRONT LOT
• DECORATIVE DOORWAYS
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• STORAGE SHED

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Land is leased (land lease fee listed separately)
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with monthly fee

Exterior

• Parking: Gravel driveway; Carport
• Utilities: Public water; Sewer connected; Water connected; Electric service
• Home design: Double-wide mobile home; Single-story (one level); Vinyl siding
• Construction: Vinyl siding exterior; Foundation: other (see remarks)
• Exterior features: Deck; Pond on the property; Shed(s) / storage structure(s); Rectangular lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in range; Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Electric range; Oven; Dishwasher; Disposal; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Three main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Vinyl; Varies
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms, both on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating with baseboard; Window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Pantry; Fireplace; Water purifier (owned); See remarks / other interior details
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $65k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $65k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Ithaca City School District (urban): math 57% / reading 71% proficiency, ranked #195 of 590 in NY (top 33%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Caroline Elementary School (math 42% / reading 57%, grade D, #1,085 of 2,108 statewide, top 56%, 293 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools at 32% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 50% at this address vs 64% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Ithaca City School District average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 327 active listings in the ZIP; 382 units permitted in Tompkins County in 2024 (208 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $449 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tompkins County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.2% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $65,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.48% ✓
• Cap rate: 30.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 88.09%
• DSCR: 4.92
• GRM: 2.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $126,336
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
712 Pats Pl	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,456 (+8%)	2mo	$129,900	$89	79
605 Graduate Dr	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,512 (+12%)	1mo	$142,000	$94	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.22% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 86.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.15×
• Total profit: $75,565
• Equity at exit: $9,692

10-year hold

• IRR: 90.4%
• Equity multiple: 11.57×
• Total profit: $192,386
• Equity at exit: $5,620

Cash invested: $18,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14850

• Rents YoY: 5.2%
• Active inventory: 327
• Price-to-rent: 2.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,260 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$341
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$81 /mo · $975/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$475
• Net cashflow: $1,270

Break-even live

Break-even rent $653

Max offer price $65,000

Occupancy floor 39%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,250
• Closing costs: $1,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $65,000 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $65,000 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   remarks 699-char remark
4. 2026-06-17
   listed $65,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X · 97% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,118
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,641
• − Property taxes: −$975
• − Insurance: −$1,122
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,169
• − Management: −$2,169
• − Depreciation: −$1,891
• Taxable income: $15,150
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,636
• After-tax cash flow: $11,600/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ithaca City School District
• NCES district ID: 3615570
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 71% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $46,528
• Composite: 54.01/100
• National rank: #1397
• State rank: #195 of 590 in NY

Livability — Varna

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Varna, NY
• County: Tompkins County · 68,610 people
• Metro: Ithaca, NY
• Population (ZIP): 68,610
• Household income: $71,445
• Rent vs Own: 55.2% rent · 44.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 5169.0

Population outlook (Tompkins County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 113,958 people
• By 2030: 118,774 · +4.2%
• By 2040: 125,927 · +10.5%
• By 2050: 133,599 · +17.2%
• By 2075: 156,759 · +37.6%
• By 2100: 169,896 · +49.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Asian 13% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 8% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 3% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 18% · China, Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Chinese 5% Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Tompkins

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+50.6) · D 75.3% · R 24.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +8.6pp toward D · 2008: 42.1pp · 2024: 50.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+50.6 2020: D+49.2 2016: D+42.1 2012: D+39.8 2008: D+42.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -276.59%
• Current HPI: 389.7215
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.22%
• Metro: Ithaca, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-5.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Listed $65,000 IBRMLS
• 2021-04-29 Sold (MLS) $65,000 IBRMLS
• 2021-04-29 Sold (MLS) $65,000 IBRMLS
• 2020-10-23 Listed $69,000 IBRMLS
• 2020-10-23 Listed $69,000 IBRMLS