1011 Valley Rd · Merriam Woods, MO 65740

$112,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · Other public records · 8 Days on market

Built 2006 6,534 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.0/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +8.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 Bedroom 2 Bath with 2 car garage in Branson School district. Just 5 minutes to Lake Taneycomo and 15 minutes to Branson attractions and shopping. Home is currently tenant occupied, providing a great investment opportunity!

Key facts

• 6,534 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2006

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage with garage door opener (garage faces front); Driveway and additional parking
• Utilities: Public water
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level; Vinyl siding exterior; Composition roof; Permanent slab foundation
• Construction: Built with vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Patio; Corner lot; Publicly maintained roads with gravel and concrete surfaces; City street frontage

Interior

• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Insulated, double-pane windows; Rain gutters
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $112k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $245 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $112k).
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 6.8% in Merriam Woods — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#444 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Branson R-IV (rural): math 48% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #44 of 324 in MO (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Buchanan Elementary (math 62% / reading 67%, grade B, #70 of 1,115 statewide, top 8%, 594 students, 54% FRL); Branson Jr. High (math 48% / reading 49%, grade C-, #81 of 391 statewide, top 21%, 724 students, 51% FRL); Branson High (math 42% / reading 56%, grade D, #145 of 521 statewide, top 28%, 1,423 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools at 50% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 99 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 331 units permitted in Taney County in 2024 (50 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($778 loan paydown + $11k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Taney County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $112,500

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.32%
• DSCR: 1.41
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.44×
• Total profit: $76,818
• Equity at exit: $101,349

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.9%
• Equity multiple: 7.79×
• Total profit: $213,913
• Equity at exit: $218,563

Cash invested: $31,500 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65740

• Home prices YoY: 11.6%
• Active inventory: 99
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,200 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$590
• Tax from tax record: −$67 /mo · $800/yr
• Insurance: −$47
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$252
• Net cashflow: $245

Break-even live

Break-even rent $890

Max offer price $112,500

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $308	-5% $276	+0% $245	+5% $213	+10% $181
Rent	-10% $150	-5% $197	+0% $245	+5% $292	+10% $339
Rate	-1.0pp $301	-0.5pp $273	base $245	+0.5pp $215	+1.0pp $186

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,125
• Closing costs: $3,375
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2529 Missouri 176 Rockaway Beach, MO	3.0	2.0	1230	$1,200	$0.98	46d	1	1.08mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-19
   status $112,500 Pending 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $112,500 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $112,500 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $112,500 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $112,500 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $112,500 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   remarks 88-char remark
8. 2026-06-12
   listed $112,500 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $800 · $67/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,091 · $91/mo
• Expected delta: +$292/yr (+$24/mo · 36.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,302
• − Property taxes: −$800
• − Insurance: −$562
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,152
• − Management: −$1,152
• − Depreciation: −$3,273
• Taxable income: $1,159
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$278
• After-tax cash flow: $2,656/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Branson R-IV
• NCES district ID: 2905760
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $41,473
• Composite: 41.96/100
• National rank: #3347
• State rank: #44 of 324 in MO

Livability — Merriam Woods

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #444
• US rank: #18151

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Merriam Woods, MO
• City population: 3,495
• Population (ZIP): 3,495

Population outlook (Taney County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 59,017 people
• By 2030: 61,235 · +3.8%
• By 2040: 65,225 · +10.5%
• By 2050: 68,842 · +16.6%
• By 2075: 77,705 · +31.7%
• By 2100: 82,002 · +38.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 8% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Iranian 3% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Taney

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+59.3) · D 19.9% · R 79.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.2pp toward R · 2008: -37.2pp · 2024: -59.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+59.3 2020: R+57.7 2016: R+59.3 2012: R+47.4 2008: R+37.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 30.18%
• Current HPI: 291.5553
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+164.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Listed $112,500 SOMO
• 2014-10-16 Sold (MLS) — SOMO
• 2014-10-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2014-05-02 Listed $42,500 SOMO
• 2005-07-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+0.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $800 · -17.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.