5660 Creek Rd · Grifton, NC 28530

$135,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,768 sqft · Manufactured public records · 86 Days on market

Built 1997 0.51 ac lot Est $221k · 39% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

-Spacious & well maintained mobile home with front porch. Interior of home features living room with fireplace, large kitchen with work island, dining area, master bath with double vanity sinks and garden tub. Fresh Paint! Move in Ready!

Key facts

• Front porch
• Rear covered deck
• 8x10 leonard shed

Tags

• FRONT PORCH
• REAR COVERED DECK
• FENCED REAR YARD
• HALF ACRE LOT
• 8X10 LEONARD SHED

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No designated paved garage or driveway; unpaved parking
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer; Cable available; Water connected
• Home design: Manufactured home; Single-story (one level); Entry level: 1; Residential property
• Construction: Vinyl siding over frame construction; Metal roof; Brick/mortar permanent foundation; Built as a manufactured home
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Deck; Back yard fencing; Barn(s); Has a view

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Range
• Bedrooms: 6 total rooms (bedrooms and living spaces counted in total rooms)
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Other heating; Wall/window cooling units (multiple)
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Unfurnished
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $304 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $135k).
• Recommended offer: $127k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 4.6% in Grifton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#444 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Lenoir County Public Schools (rural): math 29% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #147 of 178 in NC (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Contentnea-Savannah School (math 30% / reading 31%, grade F, #959 of 1,410 statewide, top 68%, 859 students, 100% FRL); North Lenoir High (math 52% / reading 36%, grade F, #367 of 535 statewide, top 69%, 975 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 65% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 48 active listings in the ZIP; 148 units permitted in Lenoir County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lenoir County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 86 days — a 6% lower offer ($127k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $52k; list at $135k implies a 160% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $126,900 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 86 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.65%
• DSCR: 1.43
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $221,000
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3810 Coldwater Creek Dr	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,999 (+13%)	6mo	$250,000	$125	70

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.93×
• Total profit: $-2,547
• Equity at exit: $20,129

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.60×
• Total profit: $22,594
• Equity at exit: $11,672

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28530

• Home prices YoY: -7.1%
• Active inventory: 48
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,463 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax from tax record: −$88 /mo · $1,052/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$307
• Net cashflow: $304

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,078

Max offer price $135,000

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $380	-5% $342	+0% $304	+5% $266	+10% $227
Rent	-10% $188	-5% $246	+0% $304	+5% $362	+10% $419
Rate	-1.0pp $372	-0.5pp $338	base $304	+0.5pp $269	+1.0pp $233

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $135,000 Active 86 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $135,000 Active 85 DOM
3. 2026-06-19
   days on market $135,000 Active 83 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $135,000 Active 82 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $135,000 Active 81 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $135,000 Active 80 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $135,000 Active 79 DOM
8. 2026-06-14
   days on market $135,000 Active 77 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $135,000 Active 76 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $135,000 Active 73 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $135,000 Active 72 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $135,000 Active 71 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $135,000 Active 70 DOM
14. 2026-06-04
    days on market $135,000 Active 67 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $135,000 Active 66 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $135,000 Active 65 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $135,000 Active 64 DOM
18. 2026-05-31
    days on market $135,000 Active 63 DOM
19. 2026-03-28
    listed $135,000 Active
20. 2016-02-23
    soldstatus $52,000 243-char remark

    Show marketing remark (243 chars)

    -Spacious & well maintained mobile home with front porch. Interior of home features living room with fireplace, large kitchen with work island, dining area, master bath with double vanity sinks and garden tub. Fresh Paint! Move in Ready!

21. 2016-02-23
    soldstatus $52,000

    Show marketing remark (243 chars)

    -Spacious & well maintained mobile home with front porch. Interior of home features living room with fireplace, large kitchen with work island, dining area, master bath with double vanity sinks and garden tub. Fresh Paint! Move in Ready!

22. 2015-12-17
    listed $55,000 243-char remark

    Show marketing remark (243 chars)

    -Spacious & well maintained mobile home with front porch. Interior of home features living room with fireplace, large kitchen with work island, dining area, master bath with double vanity sinks and garden tub. Fresh Paint! Move in Ready!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,052 · $88/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,107 · $92/mo
• Expected delta: +$55/yr (+$5/mo · 5.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,556
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$1,052
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,405
• − Management: −$1,405
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable income: $1,531
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$367
• After-tax cash flow: $3,280/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lenoir County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3702610
• Math proficiency: 29% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $34,958
• Composite: 25.17/100
• National rank: #7515
• State rank: #147 of 178 in NC

Livability — Grifton

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #444
• US rank: #16371

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,055

Population outlook (Lenoir County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 55,002 people
• By 2030: 53,048 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 49,041 · -10.8%
• By 2050: 45,136 · -17.9%
• By 2075: 36,547 · -33.6%
• By 2100: 27,731 · -49.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Black 33% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 12% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lenoir

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+6.8) · D 46.2% · R 53.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.7pp toward R · 2008: -0.1pp · 2024: -6.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+6.8 2020: R+3.5 2016: R+6.3 2012: R+1.5 2008: R+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -15.30%
• Current HPI: 201.1297
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+145.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-28 Listed $135,000 Hive MLS
• 2016-02-23 Sold (Public Records) $52,000 Public Records
• 2016-02-23 Sold (MLS) $52,000 Hive MLS
• 2015-12-17 Listed $55,000 Hive MLS

Property tax history

+4.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,052 · +92.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.