2826 5th Ave N · Texas City, TX 77590

$159,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,133 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 12 Days on market

Built 1961 9,239 sqft lot $141/sqft · at area comps Est $164k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.7/30.0
• ARV discount +8.7/15.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Whether you're buying your very first home or searching for a solid investment property to add to your portfolio, this one is definitely worth a look. Conveniently located near shopping, schools and restaurants, this 3-bedroom, 1 bath home, 1 car garage sits in a quiet neighborhood on a 9700sf lot with alley access. Whether you’re dreaming of hosting backyard gatherings, expanding the existing home, even adding extra garage space or a workshop, the possibilities here are wide open. Important updates have already been taken care of, including a new roof installed after Hurricane Ike and an HVAC system added in 2022, giving you peace of mind on some of the bigger-ticket items. Even more

Key facts

• 9,239 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1961

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot dimensions approximately 56 x 166 (about 0.21 acre); Located in a subdivision
• Financial info: Lease not considered

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 space); Alley access
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Concrete road access
• Home design: Residential property; Faces south; Single-story (first-floor living); Full ownership
• Construction: Brick construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built in 1961
• Exterior features: Fenced backyard; Private yard; Front porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven; Gas range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (14 x 10); Bedroom on the first floor (14 x 10); Bedroom on the first floor (10 x 9); Up to 3 bedrooms possible
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heating; Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Tub/shower; No fireplaces; 7 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $4 ($53/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $154k (3.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $154k (3.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 4.3% in Texas City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#907 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Texas City ISD (suburban): math 28% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #655 of 826 in TX (top 79%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Blocker Middle (math 33% / reading 36%, grade F, #858 of 1,662 statewide, top 54%, 865 students, 80% FRL); Texas City H S (math 32% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,002 of 1,632 statewide, top 62%, 1,718 students, 72% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.9%/yr); 296 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $153,620 (3.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.90%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $164,265
• List price: $159,900
• Delta: -2.66%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2613 7th Ave N	0.25mi	3/1.5	1,100 (-3%)	1mo	$155,000	$141	80
2805 2nd Ave N	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,150 (+2%)	4mo	$197,000	$171	78
2902 Tarpey Ave	0.11mi	3/1.0	1,017 (-10%)	5mo	$145,000	$143	74
2921 Tarpey Ave	0.16mi	3/1.0	1,019 (-10%)	6mo	$135,000	$132	71
2312 6th Ave N	0.52mi	3/1.0	1,100 (-3%)	1mo	$165,000	$150	70
3026 Danforth Memorial Dr	0.22mi	3/1.0	1,004 (-11%)	4mo	$187,000	$186	68
205 N Logan St	0.40mi	3/1.0	1,230 (+9%)	5mo	$130,000	$106	63
2906 Somerset Ave	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,297 (+14%)	3mo	$185,880	$143	62
3025 15th Ave N	0.59mi	3/1.5	1,080 (-5%)	5mo	$194,000	$180	59
2131 6th Ave N	0.63mi	3/1.0	1,228 (+8%)	7mo	$169,000	$138	51
3134 7th Ave N	0.38mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,274 (+12%)	6mo	$169,900	$133	51
3221 Texas Ave	0.62mi	3/2.0	976 (-14%)	5mo	$159,000	$163	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.91% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-22,533
• Equity at exit: $23,842

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.86×
• Total profit: $-6,067
• Equity at exit: $13,825

Cash invested: $44,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77590

• Home prices YoY: -19.3%
• Rents YoY: 4.9%
• Active inventory: 296
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,536 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$238 /mo · $2,851/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$323
• Net cashflow: $4

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,531

Max offer price $159,900

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $95	-5% $50	+0% $4	+5% $-41	+10% $-86
Rent	-10% $-117	-5% $-56	+0% $4	+5% $65	+10% $126
Rate	-1.0pp $85	-0.5pp $45	base $4	+0.5pp $-37	+1.0pp $-79

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,975
• Closing costs: $4,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2714 5th Ave N Texas City, TX	3.0	2.0	1382	$1,800	$1.30	45d	1	0.14mi
3106 Danforth Dr Texas City, TX	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,800	$1.64	26d	1	0.24mi
2526 3rd 1/2 Ave N Texas City, TX	3.0	2.0	1240	$1,550	$1.25	26d	1	0.34mi
2701 13th Ave N Unit B-B6 Texas City, TX	2.0	1.0	811	$1,239	$1.53	4d	1	0.47mi
2701 13th Ave N Unit J-J3 Texas City, TX	2.0	1.0	811	$1,287	$1.59	21d	1	0.47mi
2701 13th Ave N Unit C-C3 Texas City, TX	2.0	1.0	811	$1,189	$1.47	22d	1	0.47mi
2701 13th Ave N Unit K-K3 Texas City, TX	2.0	1.0	811	$1,099	$1.36	22d	1	0.47mi
2701 13th Ave N Unit E-E6 Texas City, TX	2.0	1.0	811	$1,137	$1.40	22d	1	0.47mi
2701 13th Ave N Unit C-C12 Texas City, TX	2.0	1.0	811	$1,222	$1.51	22d	1	0.47mi
2701 13th Ave N Unit H-H3 Texas City, TX	2.0	1.0	811	$1,250	$1.54	22d	1	0.47mi
2707 13th Ave N Texas City, TX	2.0	1.0	811	$1,257	$1.55	45d	1	0.47mi
3404 9th Ave N Texas City, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	721	$1,525	$2.11	0d	30	0.70mi
2418 14th Ave N Texas City, TX	3.0	2.0	1488	$1,775	$1.19	5d	1	0.72mi
1231 23rd St N Texas City, TX	4.0	2.0	1330	$1,500	$1.13	0d	1	0.73mi
1919 13th Ave N Texas City, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	950	$1,499	$1.58	0d	4	0.91mi
2202 16th Ave N Texas City, TX	2.0	1.5	860	$975	$1.13	13d	4	0.93mi
1115 Highway 146 N Texas City, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	757	$1,350	$1.78	0d	8	1.02mi
3507 25th Ave N Texas City, TX	2.0	2.0	855	$1,045	$1.22	45d	1	1.44mi
1228 6th Ave N Unit 1 Texas City, TX	2.0	1.0	847	$945	$1.12	14d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-14
   status Pending 838-char remark
2. 2026-05-05
   status Pending 838-char remark
3. 2026-05-01
   listed $159,900 Active 838-char remark
4. 2026-05-01
   historical $159,900 838-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,851 · $238/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,926 · $244/mo
• Expected delta: +$76/yr (+$6/mo · 2.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X · 60% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,434
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,957
• − Property taxes: −$2,851
• − Insurance: −$1,597
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,475
• − Management: −$1,475
• − Depreciation: −$4,652
• Taxable loss: −$2,571
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$617
• After-tax cash flow: $670/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Texas City ISD
• NCES district ID: 4842510
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,875
• Composite: 24.47/100
• National rank: #7664
• State rank: #655 of 826 in TX

Livability — Texas City

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #907
• US rank: #16268

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Texas City, TX
• County: Galveston County · 357,330 people
• City population: 49,936
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 31,642
• Household income: $65,801
• Rent vs Own: 47.6% rent · 52.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1821.0

Population outlook (Galveston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 390,640 people
• By 2030: 425,226 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 493,765 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 559,698 · +43.3%
• By 2075: 719,260 · +84.1%
• By 2100: 819,628 · +109.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 41% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 20% Black 17% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 33% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 26% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Galveston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.7% · R 63.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -58.35%
• Current HPI: 244.5809
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.91%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-05 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-01 Listed $159,900 HARMLS
• 2026-05-01 Coming Soon $159,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

+5.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,851 · +11.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.