37 Bunker Hill Rd · Salem, NY 12823

$135,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,404 sqft · Manufactured public records · 13 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 2015 2.48 ac lot $96/sqft · 59% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.3/30.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Appreciation +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

**BOM, CONTINGENT ON RELEASES** Ranch style home built in 2015 and offers 1,404 sq ft, 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, private utilities, on a slab, situate on 2.48 acres, located in Greenwich CSD.

Key facts

• 2.48 acre lot
• 4 parking spots
• Built 2015

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-298 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $86k (36.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $105k (22.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $86k (36.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#299 in NY, #4,826 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Greenwich Central School District (town): math 59% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #266 of 755 in NY (top 35%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Greenwich Elementary School (math 44% / reading 64%, grade C, #908 of 2,108 statewide, top 46%, 466 students, 37% FRL); Greenwich Junior-Senior High School (math 98% / reading 87%, grade A+, #158 of 1,100 statewide, top 15%, 429 students, 32% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 73% at this address vs 60% district-wide (+14 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Greenwich Central School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 4 active listings in the ZIP; 106 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $208 of equity ($933 loan paydown + $-725 appreciation (-0.5% local appreciation)).
• Washington County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $25k; list at $135k implies a 440% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.2% of price.

Recommended offer $86,301 (36.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.64%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.47%
• DSCR: 0.58
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $327,329
• List price: $135,000
• Delta: -58.76%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.54% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-26,177
• Equity at exit: $35,614

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-32,713
• Equity at exit: $40,043

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12823

• Home prices YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 4
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,045 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax from tax record: −$360 /mo · $4,315/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$219
• Net cashflow: $-298

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,423

Max offer price $86,301

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-222	-5% $-260	+0% $-298	+5% $-336	+10% $-375
Rent	-10% $-381	-5% $-339	+0% $-298	+5% $-257	+10% $-216
Rate	-1.0pp $-230	-0.5pp $-264	base $-298	+0.5pp $-333	+1.0pp $-369

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-06
   status Pending 187-char remark

   Show marketing remark (187 chars)

   **BOM, CONTINGENT ON RELEASES** Ranch style home built in 2015 and offers 1,404 sq ft, 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, private utilities, on a slab, situate on 2.48 acres, located in Greenwich CSD.

2. 2026-05-01
   status Active 187-char remark

   Show marketing remark (187 chars)

   **BOM, CONTINGENT ON RELEASES** Ranch style home built in 2015 and offers 1,404 sq ft, 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, private utilities, on a slab, situate on 2.48 acres, located in Greenwich CSD.

3. 2026-03-21
   status Pending 187-char remark

   Show marketing remark (187 chars)

   **BOM, CONTINGENT ON RELEASES** Ranch style home built in 2015 and offers 1,404 sq ft, 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, private utilities, on a slab, situate on 2.48 acres, located in Greenwich CSD.

4. 2026-03-13
   listed $135,000 Active 187-char remark

   Show marketing remark (187 chars)

   **BOM, CONTINGENT ON RELEASES** Ranch style home built in 2015 and offers 1,404 sq ft, 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, private utilities, on a slab, situate on 2.48 acres, located in Greenwich CSD.

5. 2000-06-06
   soldstatus $25,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,315 · $360/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,315 · $360/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,541
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$4,315
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,003
• − Management: −$1,003
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable loss: −$5,945
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,427
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,151/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Greenwich Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3612900
• Math proficiency: 59% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $62,128
• Composite: 53.45/100
• National rank: #3147
• State rank: #266 of 755 in NY

Livability — Salem

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #299
• US rank: #4826

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime F Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 682

Population outlook (Washington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 59,576 people
• By 2030: 57,618 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 52,751 · -11.5%
• By 2050: 47,514 · -20.2%
• By 2075: 35,690 · -40.1%
• By 2100: 24,807 · -58.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (98%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 98% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 45% Italian 8% Lithuanian 5%
• Foreign-born: 2%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Washington

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.2) · D 39.4% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.0pp toward R · 2008: 0.8pp · 2024: -21.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.2 2020: R+15.6 2016: R+20.2 2012: D+1.6 2008: D+0.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.54%
• Current HPI: 180.2174
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+440.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Pending — Global MLS
• 2026-05-01 Relisted — Global MLS
• 2026-03-21 Pending — Global MLS
• 2026-03-13 Listed $135,000 Global MLS
• 2000-06-06 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+19.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,315 · +8.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.