2862 State Route 26 · Cincinnatus, NY 13040

$44,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,401 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1920 2.85 ac lot ↓ 24% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.6/30.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Auction! Sun. , Nov. 6, 1 PM. Open House: Sun. , 10/30, 1-3 PM. List price reflects assessment. Bidding starts @ $1!

Key facts

• Riverfront treasure
• Large yard
• 2.85 acre lot

Tags

• LARGE YARD
• RIVERFRONT TREASURE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 2.85 acres (dimensions 457 x 463)

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Water connected to public supply; Septic tank for sewer
• Home design: Single-story home; Resale property
• Construction: Block foundation; Block and concrete construction with wood siding
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Road frontage on a main thoroughfare; Irregular lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Appliances listed in remarks
• Bedrooms: One main-level bedroom
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One main-level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heating details available in remarks
• Interior features: Has full basement; See remarks for additional interior details

🔨 Auction listing. The $44,900 list price is a nominal opening bid, not a real ask — every metric below is computed on the estimated value $175,000 (ARV from comps), not the list price.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $45k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-286 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $45k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Cincinnatus Central School District (rural): math 52% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #287 of 590 in NY (top 49%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 21 active listings in the ZIP; 45 units permitted in Cortland County in 2024 (12 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Cortland County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $38k; 17% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 5.8% of price; built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $44,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.33%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.00%
• DSCR: 0.69
• GRM: 12.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $175,000
• List price: $44,900
• Delta: -74.34%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5615 Deer Path Ln	0.22mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,288 (-8%)	15mo	$194,670	$151	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.57×
• Total profit: $77,123
• Equity at exit: $157,654

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.93×
• Total profit: $241,466
• Equity at exit: $339,987

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13040

• Home prices YoY: 3.8%
• Active inventory: 21
• Price-to-rent: 3.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,169 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$219 /mo · $2,625/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$246
• Net cashflow: $-286

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,531

Max offer price $133,641

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-16
   status Pending 558-char remark
2. 2026-05-13
   listed $44,900 Active 558-char remark
3. 2011-12-06
   soldstatus $38,500 117-char remark

   Show marketing remark (117 chars)

   Auction! Sun. , Nov. 6, 1 PM. Open House: Sun. , 10/30, 1-3 PM. List price reflects assessment. Bidding starts @ $1!

4. 2011-11-23
   soldstatus $38,500
5. 2011-10-06
   listed $58,950 117-char remark

   Show marketing remark (117 chars)

   Auction! Sun. , Nov. 6, 1 PM. Open House: Sun. , 10/30, 1-3 PM. List price reflects assessment. Bidding starts @ $1!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,029
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$2,625
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,122
• − Management: −$1,122
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable loss: −$6,609
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,586
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,844/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cincinnatus Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3607560
• Math proficiency: 52% ▲ 9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▲ 21.00%
• Median HH income: $45,988
• Composite: 48.17/100
• National rank: #2173
• State rank: #287 of 590 in NY

Livability — Cincinnatus

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,683

Population outlook (Cortland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 47,543 people
• By 2030: 46,107 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 43,122 · -9.3%
• By 2050: 40,216 · -15.4%
• By 2075: 34,717 · -27.0%
• By 2100: 28,953 · -39.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 4% Romanian 2% Polish 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1% Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cortland

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+6.4) · D 46.8% · R 53.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.4pp toward R · 2008: 10.0pp · 2024: -6.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+6.4 2020: R+1.9 2016: R+6.7 2012: D+8.8 2008: D+10.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 11.68%
• Current HPI: 316.2434
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-23.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Pending — CNYIS
• 2026-05-13 Listed $44,900 CNYIS
• 2011-12-06 Sold (MLS) $38,500 CNYIS
• 2011-11-23 Sold (Public Records) $38,500 Public Records
• 2011-10-06 Listed $58,950 CNYIS

Property tax history

-3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,297 · +8.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.