7450 Lakewood Dr · Houston, TX 77016

$170,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,878 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 34 Days on market

Built 1955 8,441 sqft lot $91/sqft · 12% below area Est $194k · 12% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.2/30.0
• ARV discount +13.0/15.0
• Appreciation +9.3/10.0
• DSCR +8.3/10.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Key facts

• 8,441 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Seller disclosure available
• Financial info: Lease not considered
• HOA & community: Community pool

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Single-story entry (all main rooms listed on the first floor)
• Construction: Brick construction; Built in 1955
• Exterior features: Located in a subdivision

Interior

• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor; Three additional bedrooms on the first floor
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (gas)
• Interior features: 4 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $380 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $170k).
• Recommended offer: $165k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Shadydale El (math 11% / reading 20%, grade F, #3,990 of 4,322 statewide, top 93%, 631 students, 95% FRL); Forest Brook Middle (math 12% / reading 14%, grade F, #1,609 of 1,662 statewide, top 97%, 613 students, 98% FRL); North Forest H S (math 13% / reading 18%, grade F, #1,505 of 1,632 statewide, top 92%, 974 students, 97% FRL) — zoned schools average 97% FRL vs 71% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 15% at this address vs 31% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 372 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (8.7% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (8.7% appreciation + 0.4% rent growth), your $48k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($165k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $164,900 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.58%
• DSCR: 1.43
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $193,555
• List price: $170,000
• Delta: -12.17%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7302 Marilyn Ln	0.41mi	4/2.0	1,811 (-4%)	0mo	$220,000	$121	75
7816 Laurel Gem Dr	0.44mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,826 (-3%)	2mo	$288,740	$158	67
7226 Gore Dr	0.31mi	4/1.5	2,100 (+12%)	2mo	$205,000	$98	62
10319 Vinca Minor Ln	0.58mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,826 (-3%)	0mo	$296,290	$162	61
10331 Vinca Minor Ln	0.59mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,826 (-3%)	1mo	$296,040	$162	60
7907 Elowen Grove Dr	0.62mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,826 (-3%)	1mo	$295,540	$162	59
7706 Tully Ave	0.37mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,600 (-15%)	2mo	$300,000	$188	51
10309 Vinca Minor Ln	0.58mi	4/2.5	2,121 (+13%)	2mo	$306,290	$144	48
7203 Gore Dr	0.37mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,609 (-14%)	2mo	$159,000	$99	48
7905 Elowen Grove Dr	0.61mi	4/2.5	2,121 (+13%)	1mo	$306,040	$144	47
7450 Ida Wells Forest Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,645 (-12%)	2mo	$220,000	$134	45
7917 Elowen Grove Dr	0.66mi	4/2.5	2,121 (+13%)	1mo	$309,290	$146	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.65% appreciation · 0.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.03×
• Total profit: $96,423
• Equity at exit: $136,727

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.32×
• Total profit: $253,187
• Equity at exit: $278,961

Cash invested: $47,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77016

• Home prices YoY: 2.8%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 372
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,970 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$214 /mo · $2,572/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$414
• Net cashflow: $380

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,489

Max offer price $170,000

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,500
• Closing costs: $5,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 26 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7325 Boggess Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1568	$1,850	$1.18	44d	1	0.15mi
7325 Boggess Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1568	$1,850	$1.18	17d	1	0.15mi
7314 Saunders Rd Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1339	$1,723	$1.29	14d	1	0.32mi
10314 Woodwick St Unit 1283919P Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1496	$3,782	$2.53	8d	1	0.33mi
7726 Spinet St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1456	$2,375	$1.63	8d	1	0.38mi
7426 Bigwood St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1997	$1,850	$0.93	14d	1	0.41mi
10474 Red Orchid Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1553	$1,875	$1.21	24d	1	0.52mi
10750 Nyla Spring St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,975	$1.32	19d	1	0.59mi
10221 Bretton Dr Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1350	$1,700	$1.26	24d	1	0.69mi
10708 Lavender Cotton Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1406	$2,150	$1.53	44d	1	0.75mi
8003 Alpine Bearberry Dr Houston, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1696	$2,520	$1.49	8d	1	0.82mi
8102 Rhobell St Unit A Houston, TX	4.0	3.5	1567	$1,750	$1.12	44d	1	0.95mi
9410 Firnat St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,900	$1.27	44d	1	1.01mi
10329 Wicklowe St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,400	$1.11	21d	1	1.02mi
9326 Firnat St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1902	$1,900	$1.00	44d	1	1.06mi
9328 Firnat St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1902	$1,900	$1.00	44d	1	1.06mi
9324 Firnat St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1600	$1,900	$1.19	22d	1	1.06mi
9320 Firnat St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1900	$1,850	$0.97	7d	1	1.06mi
8214 Parker Rd Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1608	$1,560	$0.97	8d	1	1.07mi
6823 Hanley Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1303	$1,610	$1.24	5d	1	1.09mi
9314 Sundown Dr Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1608	$1,695	$1.05	15d	1	1.13mi
8314 Madera Rd Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1608	$1,495	$0.93	24d	1	1.24mi
8235 Locksley Rd Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1608	$1,525	$0.95	8d	1	1.27mi
7223 Valmont Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1546	$1,595	$1.03	44d	1	1.33mi
8006 Lynette St Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1400	$1,475	$1.05	24d	1	1.36mi
11235 Lemond Dr Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1368	$1,450	$1.06	22d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $170,000 Active 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $170,000 Active 33 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $170,000 Active 32 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $170,000 Active 31 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $170,000 Active 29 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $185,000 Active 25 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $185,000 Active 24 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $185,000 Active 23 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $185,000 Active 20 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $185,000 Active 17 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $185,000 Active 16 DOM
12. 2026-05-15
    listed $185,000 Active
13. 2026-05-14
    historical $185,000
14. 2026-02-01
    historical $1,500
15. 2026-01-07
    listed $1,500
16. 2026-01-07
    historical $1,500
17. 2025-11-13
    listed $1,500
18. 2025-11-12
    historical $1,500
19. 2025-11-08
    price $1,500
20. 2025-11-01
    price $1,750
21. 2025-09-26
    listed $1,800
22. 2025-09-25
    historical $1,800
23. 2025-09-23
    listed $1,800
24. 2022-02-24
    soldstatus
25. 2021-05-20
    soldstatus
26. 1991-04-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,572 · $214/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,111 · $259/mo
• Expected delta: +$539/yr (+$45/mo · 20.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,643
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,523
• − Property taxes: −$2,572
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,891
• − Management: −$1,891
• − Depreciation: −$4,945
• Taxable income: $1,970
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$473
• After-tax cash flow: $4,085/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 29,841
• Household income: $47,677
• Rent vs Own: 38.8% rent · 61.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1297.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (56%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 56% Hispanic / Latino 42% Two or more races 28%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 37%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.65%
• Current HPI: 315.6765
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.44%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+9344.4% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Price Changed $170,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-15 Listed $185,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-14 Coming Soon $185,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-01 Rental Removed $1,500 HARMLS
• 2026-01-07 Listed for Rent $1,500 HARMLS
• 2026-01-07 Rental Removed $1,500 APPFOLIO
• 2025-11-13 Listed for Rent $1,500 APPFOLIO
• 2025-11-12 Rental Removed $1,500 HARMLS
• 2025-11-08 Price Changed $1,500 HARMLS
• 2025-11-01 Price Changed $1,750 HARMLS
• 2025-09-26 Listed for Rent $1,800 HARMLS
• 2025-09-25 Rental Removed $1,800 APPFOLIO
• 2025-09-23 Listed for Rent $1,800 APPFOLIO
• 2022-02-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-05-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1991-04-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,572 · +12.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.