4766 State Road 261 · Newburgh, IN 47630

$194,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,742 sqft · SingleFamily · 190 Days on market

Built 1920 Good condition 0.41 ac lot $112/sqft · 27% below area Est $269k · 27% under ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.9/30.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Rent growth +4.7/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* * SELLER IS OFFERING $5000 ALLOWANCE FOR BUYER'S CLOSING COSTS!! * * * Welcome to this freshly painted 3 Bedroom, 2 Bathroom home offering both comfort and convenience on an oversized lot with plenty of parking. Inside, you’ll find brand-new carpet, brand new appliances, fresh paint throughout, and all new doors and hardware for a clean, modern feel. The main level features a bright Family Room with a large brick fireplace, a separate Dining Room, and an updated Kitchen complete with stainless-steel appliances and new cabinetry and counter tops. An unfinished basement provides excellent storage space or potential for future expansion. Two Bedrooms, a full Bathroom and Laundry Room complete the main floor. Upstairs, step out onto the walkout balcony—perfect for morning coffee or relaxing in the evening. The home also includes an attached 1-car garage with extra workspace, ideal for hobbies, projects, or additional storage. With move-in-ready updates and generous indoor/outdoor space, this home offers comfort, flexibility, and room to grow! You will also enjoy the perfect location, with ideal proximity to restaurants, schools, churches, shopping and more!

Key facts

• Freshly painted
• Updated kitchen
• New cabinetry

Tags

• FRESHLY PAINTED
• BRAND NEW CARPET
• LARGE BRICK FIREPLACE
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• NEW CABINETRY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $195k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-13 ($-161/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $193k (1.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $169k (13.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $169k (13.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.9% in Newburgh — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#21 in IN, #1,922 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Warrick County School Corporation (suburban): math 54% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #24 of 301 in IN (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.7%/yr); 383 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 46% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 249 units permitted in Warrick County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Warrick County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 190 days — a 12% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $168,799 (13.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 190 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.29%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $268,553
• List price: $194,900
• Delta: -27.43%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3800 Canterbury Ct	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,734 (-0%)	5mo	$265,000	$153	73
4288 Pine Dr	0.34mi	3/1.5	1,710 (-2%)	8mo	$196,000	$115	72
7845 Owens Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,833 (+5%)	9mo	$280,000	$153	68
7788 Lincoln Ave	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,690 (-3%)	7mo	$306,500	$181	66
4444 State Road 261	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,698 (-2%)	8mo	$215,000	$127	64
7899 Owens Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,596 (-8%)	5mo	$225,000	$141	63
3799 Katalla Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,622 (-7%)	9mo	$275,000	$170	62
3766 Canterbury Ct	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,672 (-4%)	12mo	$272,500	$163	61
8122 Covington Ct	0.52mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,772 (+2%)	12mo	$229,000	$129	58
3512 Forestdale Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,784 (+2%)	12mo	$357,000	$200	52
7688 Meadow Ln	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,641 (-6%)	6mo	$252,000	$154	51
7699 Ridgemont Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,640 (-6%)	9mo	$239,500	$146	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-23,489
• Equity at exit: $29,060

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.35×
• Total profit: $19,152
• Equity at exit: $16,851

Cash invested: $54,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Indiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day pay-or-quit; landlord-favorable; preempted.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 47630

• Rents YoY: 8.7%
• Active inventory: 383
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,688 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,022
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$244 /mo · $2,924/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$354
• Net cashflow: $-13

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,705

Max offer price $192,961

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,725
• Closing costs: $5,847
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
107 Olde Newburgh Dr Newburgh, IN	2.0	2.5	1380	$1,375	$1.00	43d	1	0.27mi
114 Olde Newburgh Dr Newburgh, IN	3.0	2.5	1526	$1,500	$0.98	20d	1	0.29mi
8001 Alexandra Ln Newburgh, IN	3.0	1.5	1528	$1,395	$0.91	20d	1	0.86mi
4333 Bell Rd Newburgh, IN	2.0–3.0	2.0	1170	$1,549	$1.32	13d	3	0.92mi
8582 Lincoln Ave Newburgh, IN	2.0	2.0	1068	$1,344	$1.26	43d	1	1.01mi
8584 Lincoln Ave Newburgh, IN	3.0	2.0	1330	$1,549	$1.16	43d	1	1.01mi
2964 Enclave Ct Newburgh, IN	2.0	2.0	1250	$1,950	$1.56	20d	1	1.04mi
2974 Enclave Ct Newburgh, IN	2.0	2.0	1250	$2,200	$1.76	43d	1	1.05mi
5041 E Sherwood Dr Newburgh, IN	3.0	2.5	2077	$2,350	$1.13	13d	1	1.08mi
5200 E Timberwood Dr Newburgh, IN	4.0	3.0	1643	$2,200	$1.34	13d	1	1.24mi
6888 Lexington Dr Newburgh, IN	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,450	$0.97	43d	1	1.25mi
5033 IN-66 Newburgh, IN	3.0	2.5	1487	$2,100	$1.41	20d	1	1.27mi
8120 Cedar Point Dr Newburgh, IN	3.0	2.0	1281	$1,700	$1.33	43d	1	1.31mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $194,900 Active 190 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $194,900 Active 189 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $194,900 Active 188 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $194,900 Active 187 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $194,900 Active 185 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $194,900 Active 184 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $194,900 Active 182 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $194,900 Active 181 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $194,900 Active 180 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $194,900 Active 179 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $194,900 Active 174 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $194,900 Active 173 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $194,900 Active 172 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $194,900 Active 171 DOM
15. 2026-03-27
    price $194,900 1190-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1190 chars)

    * * SELLER IS OFFERING $5000 ALLOWANCE FOR BUYER'S CLOSING COSTS!! * * * Welcome to this freshly painted 3 Bedroom, 2 Bathroom home offering both comfort and convenience on an oversized lot with plenty of parking. Inside, you’ll find brand-new carpet, brand new appliances, fresh paint throughout, and all new doors and hardware for a clean, modern feel. The main level features a bright Family Room with a large brick fireplace, a separate Dining Room, and an updated Kitchen complete with stainless-steel appliances and new cabinetry and counter tops. An unfinished basement provides excellent storage space or potential for future expansion. Two Bedrooms, a full Bathroom and Laundry Room complete the main floor. Upstairs, step out onto the walkout balcony—perfect for morning coffee or relaxing in the evening. The home also includes an attached 1-car garage with extra workspace, ideal for hobbies, projects, or additional storage. With move-in-ready updates and generous indoor/outdoor space, this home offers comfort, flexibility, and room to grow! You will also enjoy the perfect location, with ideal proximity to restaurants, schools, churches, shopping and more!

16. 2025-12-17
    price $199,900 1190-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1190 chars)

    * * SELLER IS OFFERING $5000 ALLOWANCE FOR BUYER'S CLOSING COSTS!! * * * Welcome to this freshly painted 3 Bedroom, 2 Bathroom home offering both comfort and convenience on an oversized lot with plenty of parking. Inside, you’ll find brand-new carpet, brand new appliances, fresh paint throughout, and all new doors and hardware for a clean, modern feel. The main level features a bright Family Room with a large brick fireplace, a separate Dining Room, and an updated Kitchen complete with stainless-steel appliances and new cabinetry and counter tops. An unfinished basement provides excellent storage space or potential for future expansion. Two Bedrooms, a full Bathroom and Laundry Room complete the main floor. Upstairs, step out onto the walkout balcony—perfect for morning coffee or relaxing in the evening. The home also includes an attached 1-car garage with extra workspace, ideal for hobbies, projects, or additional storage. With move-in-ready updates and generous indoor/outdoor space, this home offers comfort, flexibility, and room to grow! You will also enjoy the perfect location, with ideal proximity to restaurants, schools, churches, shopping and more!

17. 2025-12-10
    listed $209,900 Active 1190-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1190 chars)

    * * SELLER IS OFFERING $5000 ALLOWANCE FOR BUYER'S CLOSING COSTS!! * * * Welcome to this freshly painted 3 Bedroom, 2 Bathroom home offering both comfort and convenience on an oversized lot with plenty of parking. Inside, you’ll find brand-new carpet, brand new appliances, fresh paint throughout, and all new doors and hardware for a clean, modern feel. The main level features a bright Family Room with a large brick fireplace, a separate Dining Room, and an updated Kitchen complete with stainless-steel appliances and new cabinetry and counter tops. An unfinished basement provides excellent storage space or potential for future expansion. Two Bedrooms, a full Bathroom and Laundry Room complete the main floor. Upstairs, step out onto the walkout balcony—perfect for morning coffee or relaxing in the evening. The home also includes an attached 1-car garage with extra workspace, ideal for hobbies, projects, or additional storage. With move-in-ready updates and generous indoor/outdoor space, this home offers comfort, flexibility, and room to grow! You will also enjoy the perfect location, with ideal proximity to restaurants, schools, churches, shopping and more!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,256
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,917
• − Property taxes: −$2,924
• − Insurance: −$974
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,620
• − Management: −$1,620
• − Depreciation: −$5,670
• Taxable loss: −$3,470
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$833
• After-tax cash flow: $672/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This freshly painted and updated home offers a good condition with minimal repairs needed. It's move-in ready with a good curb appeal and potential for further value increases through minor cosmetic improvements.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Improves property's visual appeal and marketability.
• Both New flooring in unfinished basement — Creates a more finished and usable space, increasing both resale and rental value.
• Both New lighting fixtures throughout — Improves energy efficiency and enhances the home's ambiance.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Improves property's visual appeal and marketability. ↑
• Both New flooring in unfinished basement — Creates a more finished and usable space, increasing both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both New lighting fixtures throughout — Improves energy efficiency and enhances the home's ambiance. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Warrick County School Corporation
• NCES district ID: 1812390
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $62,801
• Composite: 49.38/100
• National rank: #2014
• State rank: #24 of 301 in IN

Livability — Newburgh

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #21
• US rank: #1922

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Warrick County · 39,818 people
• City population: 39,818
• Metro: Evansville, IN-KY
• Population (ZIP): 39,818
• Household income: $94,162
• Rent vs Own: 19.7% rent · 80.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 770.0

Population outlook (Warrick County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 66,569 people
• By 2030: 68,404 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 71,131 · +6.9%
• By 2050: 72,743 · +9.3%
• By 2075: 76,088 · +14.3%
• By 2100: 72,261 · +8.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 5% Black 3% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Warrick

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+30.2) · D 34.1% · R 64.3% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.4pp toward R · 2008: -12.8pp · 2024: -30.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+30.2 2020: R+27.8 2016: R+33.9 2012: R+26.6 2008: R+12.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -187.44%
• Current HPI: 185.7643
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.69%
• Metro: Evansville, IN-KY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• F500 in state: 18

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$37B
▸Healthcare	1	$177B
▸Pharmaceuticals	1	$45B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$18B
▸Agriculture	1	$17B
▸Packaging	1	$12B

Price history

-7.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $194,900 IRMLS
• 2025-12-17 Price Changed $199,900 IRMLS
• 2025-12-10 Listed $209,900 IRMLS