2355 Atwater Blvd #3 · Atwater, CA 95301

$29,950

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 504 sqft · Manufactured · 185 Days on market

Built 1971 Est $38k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming 1971 Bel Air mobile home, beautifully updated and located in the desirable Camellia Estates. This cozy 1-bedroom, 1-bathroom home features a kitchen with brand-new stainless-steel appliances, perfect for cooking and entertaining. Recent updates throughout give the home a fresh, modern feel while maintaining its classic character. Enjoy affordable living with a low $595 monthly space rent in a well-maintained community.

Key facts

• Parking
• Built 1971
• Listed 185 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in Merced County (postal code 95301); Directions: From 99 take the Atwater Blvd exit, turn onto Sierra Vista then left on Olive to enter park from the back. Park is on the left.
• Financial info: Land lease amount listed as $595
• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Not a senior community; Land lease indicated as No (land lease amount listed separately)

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service described as other; Utilities described as other
• Home design: Manufactured home located in a park; Single-wide; Built in 1971; Address: 2355 Atwater Blvd #3, Atwater, CA 95301
• Construction: Aluminum/metal skirting; Manufactured (Bel Air)
• Exterior features: Metal roof; No notable lot features listed

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing gas range; Free-standing refrigerator; Range hood
• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom
• Flooring: Carpet; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom with tub/shower combination
• Heating & cooling: Wall heating/cooling units; Window cooling units; No central cooling
• Interior features: Synthetic countertops; Living room with unspecified features; Dining area with unspecified features; Pets allowed with limits on number and size
• Laundry & utility: No laundry hookups inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $30k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $623 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $30k).
• Recommended offer: $26k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 31.3% vs local median 2.8% in Atwater — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#295 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, amenities B; Watch: employment D+, schools D, crime F.
• Merced Union High (urban): math 20% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #301 of 517 in CA (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 116 active listings in the ZIP; 459 units permitted in Merced County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $208 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $898 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Merced County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 185 days — a 12% lower offer ($26k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $26,356 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 185 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.51% ✓
• Cap rate: 31.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 89.15%
• DSCR: 4.97
• GRM: 2.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $38,304
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2355 Atwater Blvd #3	0.00mi	1/1.0	504 (0%)	0mo	$27,500	$55	100
2355 Atwater Blvd #4	0.09mi	2/1.0 (+1)	502 (-0%)	2mo	$37,950	$76	89
2355 Atwater Blvd #18	0.10mi	2/1.0 (+1)	500 (-1%)	1mo	$38,000	$76	88
2355 Atwater Blvd #6	0.09mi	2/1.0 (+1)	550 (+9%)	21mo	$37,950	$69	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 89.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.15×
• Total profit: $34,843
• Equity at exit: $4,466

10-year hold

• IRR: 92.8%
• Equity multiple: 10.72×
• Total profit: $81,500
• Equity at exit: $2,590

Cash invested: $8,386 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95301

• Active inventory: 116
• Price-to-rent: 2.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,051 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$157
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$37 /mo · $449/yr
• Insurance: −$12
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$221
• Net cashflow: $623

Break-even live

Break-even rent $262

Max offer price $29,950

Occupancy floor 36%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $644	-5% $633	+0% $623	+5% $613	+10% $602
Rent	-10% $540	-5% $582	+0% $623	+5% $665	+10% $706
Rate	-1.0pp $638	-0.5pp $631	base $623	+0.5pp $615	+1.0pp $607

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $7,488
• Closing costs: $898
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,608
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,678
• − Property taxes: −$449
• − Insurance: −$150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,009
• − Management: −$1,009
• − Depreciation: −$871
• Taxable income: $7,442
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,786
• After-tax cash flow: $5,690/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Merced Union High
• NCES district ID: 0624660
• Math proficiency: 20% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,977
• Composite: 28.11/100
• National rank: #6823
• State rank: #301 of 517 in CA

Livability — Atwater

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #295
• US rank: #9893

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Atwater, CA
• County: Merced County · 205,386 people
• City population: 43,009
• Metro: Merced, CA
• Population (ZIP): 43,009
• Household income: $68,349
• Rent vs Own: 43.4% rent · 56.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1477.0

Population outlook (Merced County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 285,501 people
• By 2030: 293,437 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 308,808 · +8.2%
• By 2050: 321,011 · +12.4%
• By 2075: 338,497 · +18.6%
• By 2100: 330,493 · +15.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 53% White 33% Two or more races 11% Asian 6% Black 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 50%
• Common ancestry: Russian 7% Slovak 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada
• Languages at home: 56% English-only · Spanish 37% Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Merced

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.5% · R 50.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: 8.3pp · 2024: -4.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.4 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+7.9 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+8.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -365.43%
• Current HPI: 281.52
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Merced, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B