2712 Grove Crest Dr · Rosenberg, TX 77469

$378,990

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,902 sqft · SingleFamily · 44 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 2-car garage $113/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.5/30.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• DSCR +0.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

New Construction Lennar Houston Home - The Larwood Floor Plan - Perfect for multigenerational households, this new two-story Next Gen® home features a private suite with its own entrance, living area, kitchenette, bedroom, bathroom and laundry. The main home is host to a spacious open plan near an inviting covered patio. A luxurious owner’s suite provides a serene retreat at the back of the home, complete with a full bathroom and walk-in closet. Two additional bedrooms and a flexible game room make up the second level. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• Kitchenette
• Full bathroom
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• PRIVATE SUITE
• OWN ENTRANCE
• LIVING AREA
• KITCHENETTE
• FULL BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET

🏗️ New construction. The $378,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $404,990.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $379k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-690 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $305k (19.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $281k (25.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $281k (25.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.2% vs local median 3.4% in Rosenberg — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#922 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Meyer El (math 25% / reading 22%, grade F, #3,247 of 4,322 statewide, top 76%, 704 students, 74% FRL); George J H (math 27% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,156 of 1,662 statewide, top 71%, 1,173 students, 81% FRL); B F Terry H S (math 34% / reading 41%, grade F, #888 of 1,632 statewide, top 55%, 1,739 students, 74% FRL) — zoned schools average 76% FRL vs 43% district-wide (34 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 30% at this address vs 52% district-wide (-22 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Lamar CISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.8%/yr); 1645 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 93d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($102k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($368k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $281,193 (25.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.31%
• DSCR: 0.67
• GRM: 12.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $404,990
• List price: $378,990
• Delta: -5.19%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2704 Grove Crest Dr	0.01mi	4/3.5	2,731 (-6%)	1mo	$360,840	$132	89
2515 Pine Bluff Dr	0.03mi	4/3.0	2,731 (-6%)	0mo	$374,990	$137	87
2627 Pine Bluff Dr	0.13mi	4/3.0	2,731 (-6%)	2mo	$426,990	$156	80
2707 Grove Crest Dr	0.02mi	4/3.0	3,198 (+10%)	1mo	$409,090	$128	79
2616 Pine Bluff Dr	0.37mi	4/3.5	2,795 (-4%)	2mo	$439,990	$157	75
2612 Pine Bluff Dr	0.27mi	4/3.5	2,666 (-8%)	2mo	$417,990	$157	72
2719 Grove Crest Dr	0.28mi	5/3.5 (+1)	2,726 (-6%)	2mo	$393,990	$145	70
2608 Pine Bluff Dr	0.02mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,517 (-13%)	2mo	$348,000	$138	65
2607 Pine Bluff Dr	0.04mi	5/4.5 (+1)	3,308 (+14%)	2mo	$419,990	$127	64
2624 Pine Bluff Dr	0.15mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,517 (-13%)	2mo	$404,990	$161	58
3711 Castle Rock Dr	0.54mi	5/4.5 (+1)	3,118 (+7%)	2mo	$450,000	$144	52
3719 Aspen Springs Dr	0.63mi	4/3.5	2,533 (-13%)	1mo	$315,000	$124	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -32.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.04×
• Total profit: $-117,725
• Equity at exit: $60,385

10-year hold

• IRR: -61.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.68×
• Total profit: $-190,523
• Equity at exit: $35,016

Cash invested: $113,397 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 30 active · 29 under contract
• Months of supply: 4.5 mo (22%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $375,495 ($141/sqft)
• Median days on market: 34 d
• This list price: 53% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -1.0% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77469

• Home prices YoY: -25.1%
• Rents YoY: -1.8%
• Active inventory: 1645
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,812 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,124
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$506 /mo · $6,075/yr
• Insurance: −$169
• HOA: −$113
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$591
• Net cashflow: $-690

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,686

Max offer price $305,092

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-410	-5% $-550	+0% $-690	+5% $-830	+10% $-970
Rent	-10% $-913	-5% $-801	+0% $-690	+5% $-579	+10% $-468
Rate	-1.0pp $-486	-0.5pp $-587	base $-690	+0.5pp $-795	+1.0pp $-902

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $101,248
• Closing costs: $12,150
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4504 Stonewall Ridge Dr Tara, TX	4.0	3.0	2393	$2,800	$1.17	4d	1	0.05mi
4516 Bartagrass Dr Richmond, TX	4.0	2.0	2160	$3,850	$1.78	93d	1	0.59mi
5120 Twin Summit Dr Richmond, TX	4.0	2.0	1932	$2,099	$1.09	62d	1	0.63mi
5018 Cottage Creek Ln Richmond, TX	3.0	2.0	2251	$2,011	$0.89	0d	1	0.73mi
3715 Rock Ledge Dr Richmond, TX	3.0	2.5	2398	$2,400	$1.00	59d	1	0.74mi
5228 Pine Pass Dr Richmond, TX	4.0	2.0	1932	$2,271	$1.18	93d	1	0.79mi
5624 Forest Cove Dr Richmond, TX	5.0	5.0	3126	$3,200	$1.02	93d	1	1.13mi
4212 Russet Elm Ln Richmond, TX	4.0	2.5	2452	$2,295	$0.94	93d	1	1.26mi

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community association: VanMor ProperitiesAssociation fee $1,350 annually

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyNew construction (under construction)Slab foundation
• Construction: Built in 2026Brick constructionComposition roof
• Exterior features: Back yard fenceSubdivision lot setting

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherElectric ovenElectric rangeGas ovenGas range
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 9
• Flooring: CarpetVinyl
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric and gas)Central air conditioning (electric and gas)
• Interior features: Breakfast barDouble vanityKitchen and family room combinedPrimary bedroom with private bathSeparate showerTub with shower
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookupGas dryer hookup

Listing history 34 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $378,990 Active 44 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   price $378,990 Active 42 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $383,990 Active 42 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $383,990 Active 41 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $383,990 Active 40 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $383,990 Active 39 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $383,990 Active 36 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $383,990 Active 34 DOM
9. 2026-07-28
   pricedays on market $383,990 Active 33 DOM
10. 2026-07-26
    days on market $363,991 Active 31 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $363,991 Active 29 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $363,991 Active 28 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $363,991 Active 27 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $363,991 Active 26 DOM
15. 2026-07-20
    days on market $363,991 Active 25 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $363,991 Active 23 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    pricedays on market $363,991 Active 22 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $373,991 Active 21 DOM
19. 2026-07-15
    pricedays on market $373,991 Active 20 DOM
20. 2026-07-14
    days on market $391,991 Active 19 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $391,991 Active 18 DOM
22. 2026-07-13
    days on market $391,991 Active 17 DOM
23. 2026-07-11
    days on market $391,991 Active 16 DOM
24. 2026-07-10
    days on market $391,991 Active 15 DOM
25. 2026-07-09
    remarks 680-char remark
26. 2026-07-09
    pricestatusdays on market $391,991 Active 14 DOM
27. 2026-05-18
    status Pending 651-char remark
28. 2026-05-14
    price $394,990 651-char remark
29. 2026-05-07
    price $379,990 651-char remark
30. 2026-05-05
    listed $374,990 Active 651-char remark
31. 2026-05-05
    historical
32. 2026-05-04
    price $374,990
33. 2026-04-29
    price $386,540
34. 2026-04-08
    listed $397,590 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 69% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,743
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,686
• − Property taxes: −$6,075
• − Insurance: −$2,025
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,699
• − Management: −$2,699
• − HOA: −$1,356
• − Depreciation: −$11,782
• Taxable loss: −$15,579
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,739
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,546/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This new two-story home is move-in ready with excellent condition and no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers a luxurious owner's suite and is perfect for multigenerational households. Upgrades in paint, landscaping, flooring, and HVAC would further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property. ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms and kitchen — Modern flooring improves aesthetics and adds value for both resale and rental. ↑
• Both Upgrading HVAC system — Modern HVAC system improves comfort and energy efficiency, attracting more buyers and renters. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 26/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Meyer El F TX #3,247/4,322 Nat'l #31,549/41,679 Middle George J H F TX #1,156/1,662 Nat'l #9,659/14,009 High Dr Thomas E Randle H S

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lamar CISD
• NCES district ID: 4826580
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $75,213
• Composite: 46.43/100
• National rank: #2452
• State rank: #116 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 62/100

Livability — Rosenberg

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #922
• US rank: #16414

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rosenberg, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 1,004,526 people
• City population: 115,151
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 69,826
• Household income: $102,125
• Rent vs Own: 20.6% rent · 79.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 9% of renters

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Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.76)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 29% White 27% Black 25% Two or more races 15% Asian 15%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 24% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 7% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.66%
• Current HPI: 234.9892
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.81%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community association: VanMor ProperitiesAssociation fee $1,350 annually

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyNew construction (under construction)Slab foundation
• Construction: Built in 2026Brick constructionComposition roof
• Exterior features: Back yard fenceSubdivision lot setting

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherElectric ovenElectric rangeGas ovenGas range
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 9
• Flooring: CarpetVinyl
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric and gas)Central air conditioning (electric and gas)
• Interior features: Breakfast barDouble vanityKitchen and family room combinedPrimary bedroom with private bathSeparate showerTub with shower
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookupGas dryer hookup

Price history

-0.7% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $394,990 HARMLS
• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $379,990 HARMLS
• 2026-05-05 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-05-05 Listed $374,990 HARMLS
• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $374,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $386,540 HARMLS
• 2026-04-08 Listed $397,590 HARMLS