2640 Alvarado Ln N · Plymouth, MN 55447

$489,900

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,551 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1978 0.40 ac lot $192/sqft · 9% below area Est $746k · 34% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.2/30.0
• Schools +6.9/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Wonderful 4 bedroom, 3 bath home on a cul-de-sac in Wayzata Schools. Hardwood floors in kitchen, dining room and main floor. Very large rooms. 3 bedrooms & 2 baths on one floor. Living room & family room have fireplaces. Living room walks out to a great deck and family room walks out to a patio. Sauna in lower level. Yes it needs some up-dating but its clean and ready to move right in.

Key facts

• Fireplaces
• Great deck
• Sauna

Tags

• CUL-DE-SAC
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• FIREPLACES
• GREAT DECK
• PATIO
• SAUNA

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 3-car garage with garage door opener; Asphalt driveway
• Utilities: City water connected; City sewer connected; Natural gas
• Home design: Residential property; Split-entry (bi-level) design; Multiple levels
• Construction: Block construction; Block foundation; Built with stucco exterior
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio; Stucco exterior; City street frontage; Lot approximately 0.4 acres (dimensions: 171x119x207x49)

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen with center island; Cooktop; Range; Wall oven; Microwave; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Refrigerator; Trash compactor; Indoor grill; Wine cooler
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms; Primary bedroom on main floor; Upper-level bedrooms (multiple); Lower-level bedroom
• Flooring: Hardwood floors; Tile floors
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One three-quarter bathroom; 3/4 primary bath; 3/4 basement bath; Main floor full bath
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Hardwood floors; Tile floors; Vaulted ceilings; Natural woodwork; Intercom system; Wet bar; Walk-in closet; Sauna; In-ground sprinkler; Main floor primary bedroom; Finished basement (block)
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Washer/Dryer hookup; Gas water heater; Water softener (owned)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $490k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-674 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $371k (24.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $326k (33.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $326k (33.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 3.1% in Plymouth — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#17 in MN, #517 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, commute A+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F.
• Wayzata Public School District (urban): math 75% / reading 78% proficiency, ranked #2 of 301 in MN (top 1%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 11% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 120 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 4,651 units permitted in Hennepin County in 2024 (2,443 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hennepin County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $106k; list at $490k implies a 361% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $326,180 (33.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.64%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.90%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 12.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $745,903
• List price: $489,900
• Delta: -34.32%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
17910 28th Ave N	0.66mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,309 (-10%)	19mo	$450,000	$195	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.15% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.06×
• Total profit: $-128,335
• Equity at exit: $73,046

10-year hold

• IRR: -36.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.39×
• Total profit: $-190,769
• Equity at exit: $42,358

Cash invested: $137,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55447

• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 120
• Price-to-rent: 12.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,262 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,569
• Tax from tax record: −$478 /mo · $5,736/yr
• Insurance: −$204
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$685
• Net cashflow: $-674

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,116

Max offer price $370,760

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-397	-5% $-536	+0% $-674	+5% $-813	+10% $-952
Rent	-10% $-932	-5% $-803	+0% $-674	+5% $-546	+10% $-417
Rate	-1.0pp $-428	-0.5pp $-550	base $-674	+0.5pp $-801	+1.0pp $-931

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $122,475
• Closing costs: $14,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18995 31st Pl N Minneapolis, MN	4.0	4.0	3535	$3,900	$1.10	44d	1	0.56mi
17420 County Road 24 Minneapolis, MN	4.0	2.5	2200	$3,500	$1.59	0d	1	1.09mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-17
   historical Contingent - Inspection 402-char remark
2. 2026-05-14
   listed $489,900 Active 402-char remark
3. 1978-02-01
   soldstatus $106,275

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,736 · $478/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,736 · $478/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,142
• − Mortgage interest: −$27,442
• − Property taxes: −$5,736
• − Insurance: −$2,450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,131
• − Management: −$3,131
• − Depreciation: −$14,252
• Taxable loss: −$17,001
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,080
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,013/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wayzata Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2742160
• Math proficiency: 75% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 78% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $91,783
• Composite: 68.75/100
• National rank: #336
• State rank: #2 of 301 in MN

Livability — Plymouth

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #17
• US rank: #517

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Plymouth, MN
• County: Hennepin County · 1,150,272 people
• City population: 79,816
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 20,931
• Household income: $133,555
• Rent vs Own: 23.0% rent · 77.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 265.0

Population outlook (Hennepin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,405,227 people
• By 2030: 1,492,650 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 1,660,157 · +18.1%
• By 2050: 1,823,498 · +29.8%
• By 2075: 2,221,283 · +58.1%
• By 2100: 2,509,976 · +78.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Two or more races 6% Asian 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 14% Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Hennepin

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+42.6) · D 70.2% · R 27.5% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.0pp toward D · 2008: 28.6pp · 2024: 42.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+42.6 2020: D+43.2 2016: D+35.3 2012: D+27.1 2008: D+28.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -380.57%
• Current HPI: 229.7126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.15%
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+361.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-17 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-14 Listed $489,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1978-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $106,275 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,736 · +13.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.