512 Park Ave · Goodhue, MN 55027

$67,600

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,004 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 43 Days on market

Built 1900 10,454 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This property is being sold as-is. There was a fire in the property. We have no information if the heat or air conditioning work.

Key facts

• 0.24 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1900

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $68k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $428 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $68k).
• Recommended offer: $66k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#100 in MN, #2,280 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Goodhue Public School District (rural): math 44% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #128 of 301 in MN (top 42%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 12 active listings in the ZIP; 86 units permitted in Goodhue County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($467 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Goodhue County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($66k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $65,572 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.76% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.15%
• DSCR: 2.21
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 44.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.39×
• Total profit: $64,136
• Equity at exit: $60,899

10-year hold

• IRR: 38.9%
• Equity multiple: 9.85×
• Total profit: $167,511
• Equity at exit: $131,332

Cash invested: $18,928 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55027

• Home prices YoY: 7.5%
• Active inventory: 12
• Price-to-rent: 4.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,189 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$355
• Tax from tax record: −$128 /mo · $1,540/yr
• Insurance: −$28
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$250
• Net cashflow: $428

Break-even live

Break-even rent $647

Max offer price $67,600

Occupancy floor 59%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $467	-5% $447	+0% $428	+5% $409	+10% $390
Rent	-10% $334	-5% $381	+0% $428	+5% $475	+10% $522
Rate	-1.0pp $462	-0.5pp $445	base $428	+0.5pp $411	+1.0pp $393

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,900
• Closing costs: $2,028
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-13
   listed $67,600 Active 129-char remark

   Show marketing remark (129 chars)

   This property is being sold as-is. There was a fire in the property. We have no information if the heat or air conditioning work.

2. 2025-11-24
   listed $67,600 Active
3. 2003-05-06
   soldstatus $89,600
4. 1999-04-30
   soldstatus $58,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,540 · $128/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,540 · $128/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,267
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,787
• − Property taxes: −$1,540
• − Insurance: −$338
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,141
• − Management: −$1,141
• − Depreciation: −$1,967
• Taxable income: $4,353
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,045
• After-tax cash flow: $4,094/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Goodhue Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2712900
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $67,435
• Composite: 42.36/100
• National rank: #3245
• State rank: #128 of 301 in MN

Livability — Goodhue

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #100
• US rank: #2280

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Goodhue, MN
• Population (ZIP): 2,948

Population outlook (Goodhue County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,532 people
• By 2030: 46,185 · -0.7%
• By 2040: 44,531 · -4.3%
• By 2050: 41,532 · -10.7%
• By 2075: 33,745 · -27.5%
• By 2100: 23,716 · -49.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 18% Lithuanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Goodhue

• 2024 margin: R (+16.4) · D 40.8% · R 57.3% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.1pp toward R · 2008: -1.4pp · 2024: -16.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.4 2020: R+14.8 2016: R+18.0 2012: R+3.0 2008: R+1.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 21.34%
• Current HPI: 305.02
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+16.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Listed $67,600 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-24 Listed $67,600 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-05-06 Sold (Public Records) $89,600 Public Records
• 1999-04-30 Sold (Public Records) $58,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,540 · -23.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.