16622 N 1st Dr · Phoenix, AZ 85023

$65,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Manufactured · 66 Days on market

Built 2004 Good condition Est $74k · 12% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +12.9/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Rent growth +1.7/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This manufactured home. Offering a 1,000 square feet of living space, this TWO-bedroom, TWO-bathroom floor plan is move-in ready with brand-new carpeting throughout. Spacious kitchen with plenty of storge through out. Washer and Dryer inside the home. A major highlight is the brand-new AC unit. The exterior features a covered deck with misters, providing a private area to relax in the shade. Residents of Central Park Village enjoy a resort-style lifestyle with access to a 9-hole golf course, heated pool, spa, and an active clubhouse. This home combines a prime, low-traffic location with key modern upgrades. The home is situated on a quiet cul-de-sac lot within the highly desirable Central

Key facts

• Quiet cul-de-sac lot
• Brand-new ac unit
• Heated pool

Tags

• QUIET CUL-DE-SAC LOT
• BRAND-NEW AC UNIT
• SPACIOUS COVERED DECK
• HEATED POOL

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property building area source: Assessor
• HOA & community: Land lease (monthly); Land lease fee applies monthly; Association fees include water, sewer, and trash; Community pool and heated spa; Community laundry and media room; Fitness center; Golf access; Biking/walking paths; Near bus stop

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered parking spaces; 2 carport spaces
• Utilities: City water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured/Mobile home; Leasehold ownership; Asphalt road access
• Construction: Wood siding and wood frame construction; Painted exterior; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Shed(s); East/West exposure; Sprinklers front and rear with auto timers; Cul-de-sac lot; Gravel/stone front and back

Interior

• Kitchen: Laminate counters; Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Disposal
• Bedrooms: 2 possible bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: High-speed internet available; Eat-in kitchen; Vaulted ceilings; 3/4 bath in primary bedroom; Skylight(s)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $65k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $796 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $65k).
• Recommended offer: $61k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 21.0% vs local median 3.3% in Phoenix — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AZ, #3,924 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F.
• Glendale Union High School District (4285) (urban): math 23% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #130 of 249 in AZ (top 52%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Lookout Mountain School (math 48% / reading 62%, grade C, #202 of 1,109 statewide, top 19%, 881 students, 24% FRL); Mountain Sky Middle School (math 30% / reading 28%, grade F, #90 of 218 statewide, top 42%, 713 students, 55% FRL); Thunderbird High School (math 28% / reading 35%, grade F, #109 of 381 statewide, top 29%, 1,540 students, 43% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.4%/yr); 142 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $449 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($61k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 5→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $61,100 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.43% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 52.50%
• DSCR: 3.34
• GRM: 3.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $73,920
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16821 N 2nd Dr #282	0.16mi	2/2.0	1,056 (0%)	15mo	$73,500	$70	80
16622 N 2nd Dr #182	0.10mi	2/2.0	960 (-9%)	7mo	$70,000	$73	74
205 W Bell Rd #293	0.10mi	2/2.0	1,200 (+14%)	1mo	$35,000	$29	72
16618 N 1st Dr #114	0.02mi	2/2.0	1,152 (+9%)	23mo	$45,000	$39	65
17821 N 1st St	0.71mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,169 (+11%)	16mo	$250,000	$214	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 47.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.96×
• Total profit: $35,584
• Equity at exit: $9,692

10-year hold

• IRR: 51.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.31×
• Total profit: $78,530
• Equity at exit: $5,620

Cash invested: $18,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85023

• Rents YoY: -3.4%
• Active inventory: 142
• Price-to-rent: 3.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,577 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$341
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$81 /mo · $975/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$331
• Net cashflow: $796

Break-even live

Break-even rent $569

Max offer price $65,000

Occupancy floor 44%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $841	-5% $819	+0% $796	+5% $774	+10% $751
Rent	-10% $672	-5% $734	+0% $796	+5% $859	+10% $921
Rate	-1.0pp $829	-0.5pp $813	base $796	+0.5pp $779	+1.0pp $762

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,250
• Closing costs: $1,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16609 N 1st Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	910	$1,350	$1.48	0d	1	0.10mi
11 E Bell Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	950	$1,705	$1.79	0d	11	0.18mi
110 E Greenway Pkwy Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	968	$1,640	$1.69	0d	8	0.21mi
110 W Bell Rd Unit 1 Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	739	$1,299	$1.76	25d	1	0.21mi
110 W Bell Rd Unit 12 Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	856	$1,399	$1.63	25d	1	0.21mi
110 W Bell Rd Unit 2 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	980	$1,649	$1.68	25d	1	0.21mi
110 W Bell Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	845	$1,499	$1.77	9d	1	0.24mi
220 W Bell Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1082	$1,564	$1.45	3d	32	0.25mi
10 E Bell Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	658	$1,427	$2.17	0d	35	0.30mi
118 E Anderson Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1272	$1,950	$1.53	25d	1	0.40mi
17420 N 2nd Ave Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1312	$2,000	$1.52	23d	1	0.47mi
229 E Anderson Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1256	$2,100	$1.67	9d	1	0.48mi
16220 N 7th St Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	885	$1,708	$1.93	0d	31	0.48mi
314 E Hartford Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1320	$2,195	$1.66	25d	1	0.52mi
17031 N 11th Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	771	$1,437	$1.86	0d	23	0.62mi
17646 N 6th Ave Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1286	$2,200	$1.71	5d	1	0.72mi
17249 N 7th St Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1082	$1,538	$1.42	0d	50	0.81mi
1118 W Helena Dr Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	960	$2,200	$2.29	45d	1	0.86mi
17625 N 7th St Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	925	$1,369	$1.48	0d	6	0.91mi
18217 N 2nd Pl Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	833	$1,300	$1.56	18d	1	0.97mi
815 E Grovers Ave Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	1469	$2,800	$1.91	6d	2	1.04mi
1100 E Bell Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	987	$1,824	$1.85	0d	22	1.09mi
17228 N 16th Dr #4 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	980	$1,500	$1.53	22d	1	1.11mi
726 E Villa Rita Dr Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1088	$2,000	$1.84	12d	1	1.12mi
726 E Villa Rita Dr Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1088	$2,000	$1.84	20d	1	1.12mi
17017 N 12th St Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	1069	$1,547	$1.45	0d	9	1.14mi
17617 N 9th St Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	956	$1,513	$1.58	0d	39	1.14mi
16875 N 12th St Unit 17 Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1323	$2,200	$1.66	25d	1	1.23mi
16601 N 12th St Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1242	$1,697	$1.37	0d	20	1.23mi
1305 W Villa Maria Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1401	$2,300	$1.64	19d	1	1.23mi
17239 N 19th Ave Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	801	$1,371	$1.71	0d	34	1.28mi
1130 E Grovers Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	934	$1,336	$1.43	0d	10	1.29mi
17617 N 17th Ln Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1353	$2,100	$1.55	5d	1	1.30mi
1633 W Charleston Ave Phoenix, AZ	3.0	1.5	1441	$1,766	$1.23	0d	1	1.32mi
17425 N 19th Ave Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	776	$1,327	$1.71	0d	40	1.33mi
16825 N 14th St Phoenix, AZ	2.0–4.0	2.5–3.0	1465	$1,675	$1.14	4d	2	1.36mi
16825 N 14th St Phoenix, AZ	2.0–4.0	2.5–3.0	1465	$1,675	$1.14	25d	2	1.36mi
1126 E Charleston Ave Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1214	$2,450	$2.02	5d	1	1.37mi
1032 E Villa Maria Dr Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1097	$1,850	$1.69	21d	1	1.39mi
1032 E Villa Maria Dr Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1097	$1,850	$1.69	9d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $65,000 Active 66 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $65,000 Active 63 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $65,000 Active 62 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $65,000 Active 61 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $65,000 Active 60 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $65,000 Active 58 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $65,000 Active 54 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $65,000 Active 53 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $65,000 Active 52 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $65,000 Active 49 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $65,000 Active 48 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $65,000 Active 47 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $65,000 Active 46 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $65,000 Active 45 DOM
15. 2026-04-16
    listed $65,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 5 d/yr ≥110°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,918
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,641
• − Property taxes: −$975
• − Insurance: −$325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,513
• − Management: −$1,513
• − Depreciation: −$1,891
• Taxable income: $9,059
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,174
• After-tax cash flow: $7,381/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This move-in ready manufactured home in a desirable community offers a good condition with minor updates needed for a fresh look and improved curb appeal.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Kitchen cabinets — Aesthetic update needed
• Minor Bathroom paint — Fresh paint would improve appearance

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint kitchen cabinets — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal
• Resale Paint bathroom vanity — Fresh paint improves bathroom appearance
• Resale Replace kitchen countertops — Modern countertops would elevate kitchen aesthetics
• Resale Replace bathroom vanity — Modern vanity would improve bathroom functionality and appearance

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen cabinets · Aesthetic update needed	Minor	$500–3,000
Bathroom paint · Fresh paint would improve appearance	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$1,000–6,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint kitchen cabinets — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal ↑
• Resale Paint bathroom vanity — Fresh paint improves bathroom appearance ↑
• Resale Replace kitchen countertops — Modern countertops would elevate kitchen aesthetics ↑
• Resale Replace bathroom vanity — Modern vanity would improve bathroom functionality and appearance ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Glendale Union High School District (4285)
• NCES district ID: 0403450
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -38.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -19.00%
• Median HH income: $40,846
• Composite: 22.81/100
• National rank: #8020
• State rank: #130 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Phoenix

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #3924

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Phoenix, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 1,500,198
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 35,034
• Household income: $77,369
• Rent vs Own: 40.4% rent · 59.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1539.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 11% Black 7% Asian 6% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -348.79%
• Current HPI: 311.8587
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.35%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Listed $65,000 ARMLS