2801 N Paris Ave · Lubbock, TX 79403

$99,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,505 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 72 Days on market

Built 1934 0.33 ac lot ↓ 19% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.4/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This home has great bones and is full of potential and ready for your personal touch~ With its layout, it is a great opportunity for first time home buyers or investors! Sitting on an oversized lot, it has an awesome round top (approx 30 x 30-40 ft) shop in the back, with electricity, perfect for someone needing to have a place for working on various projects. There is also a great storage/workshop space in front of carport. This home has 2 good sized bedrooms, with a bonus flex space, 2 full baths, dining area open to living room, utility room off of kitchen. Whether you are looking for a home for yourself or a rental property, this home has great possibilities!

Key facts

• 0.33 acre lot
• Parking
• Built 1934

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $353 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $94k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, crime F.
• Lubbock ISD (urban): math 36% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #481 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 165 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 64% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($48k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.5% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($94k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1934 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $93,906 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1934 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.40% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.15%
• DSCR: 1.67
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.52% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.15×
• Total profit: $4,320
• Equity at exit: $14,895

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.89×
• Total profit: $24,811
• Equity at exit: $8,638

Cash invested: $27,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79403

• Home prices YoY: -9.0%
• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 165
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,394 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$183 /mo · $2,194/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$293
• Net cashflow: $353

Break-even live

Break-even rent $947

Max offer price $99,900

Occupancy floor 70%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $410	-5% $382	+0% $353	+5% $325	+10% $297
Rent	-10% $243	-5% $298	+0% $353	+5% $408	+10% $463
Rate	-1.0pp $404	-0.5pp $379	base $353	+0.5pp $327	+1.0pp $301

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,975
• Closing costs: $2,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2608 N Avenue P Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,399	$1.12	14d	1	0.16mi
2509 N Avenue O Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1323	$1,349	$1.02	44d	1	0.19mi
2502 N Avenue P Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1323	$1,365	$1.03	14d	1	0.23mi
2420 North Avenue P Unit P Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1323	$1,399	$1.06	44d	1	0.24mi
2418 North Avenue P Unit P Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1323	$1,450	$1.10	44d	1	0.25mi
2425 N Avenue N Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1323	$1,450	$1.10	14d	1	0.28mi
2402 N Avenue O Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1323	$1,299	$0.98	44d	1	0.33mi
2119 North Avenue K Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,450	$1.00	44d	1	0.47mi
2108 N Avenue L Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1355	$1,299	$0.96	44d	1	0.51mi
2109 North Avenue K Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,299	$0.96	44d	1	0.51mi
2109 North Avenue K Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,299	$0.96	22d	1	0.51mi
2114 North Avenue K Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1187	$1,350	$1.14	44d	1	0.52mi
2123 N Jayton Ave Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1355	$1,175	$0.87	44d	1	0.52mi
2117 N Jayton Ave Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1187	$1,325	$1.12	44d	1	0.54mi
2122 N Jayton Ave Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1187	$1,500	$1.26	14d	1	0.55mi
2118 N Jayton Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1187	$1,325	$1.12	22d	1	0.57mi
2118 N Jayton Ave Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,325	$0.98	44d	1	0.57mi
2112 N Jayton Ave Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1187	$1,325	$1.12	22d	1	0.59mi
2102 N Jayton Ave Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,450	$1.07	44d	1	0.62mi
2142 N Texas Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1646	$1,499	$0.91	45d	1	0.63mi
2125 N Texas Ave Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,299	$0.96	44d	1	0.65mi
2101 N Texas Ave Unit 2-B Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1187	$1,295	$1.09	14d	1	0.68mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,900 Active 72 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,900 Active 71 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,900 Active 70 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,900 Active 69 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $99,900 Active 67 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,900 Active 66 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $99,900 Active 64 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,900 Active 63 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,900 Active 62 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $99,900 Active 61 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $99,900 Active 58 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,900 Active 57 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    price $99,900 Active 56 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $105,000 Active 56 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $105,000 Active 55 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $105,000 Active 54 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $105,000 Active 53 DOM
18. 2026-05-18
    price $105,000 672-char remark

    Show marketing remark (672 chars)

    This home has great bones and is full of potential and ready for your personal touch~ With its layout, it is a great opportunity for first time home buyers or investors! Sitting on an oversized lot, it has an awesome round top (approx 30 x 30-40 ft) shop in the back, with electricity, perfect for someone needing to have a place for working on various projects. There is also a great storage/workshop space in front of carport. This home has 2 good sized bedrooms, with a bonus flex space, 2 full baths, dining area open to living room, utility room off of kitchen. Whether you are looking for a home for yourself or a rental property, this home has great possibilities!

19. 2026-04-20
    price $115,000 672-char remark

    Show marketing remark (672 chars)

    This home has great bones and is full of potential and ready for your personal touch~ With its layout, it is a great opportunity for first time home buyers or investors! Sitting on an oversized lot, it has an awesome round top (approx 30 x 30-40 ft) shop in the back, with electricity, perfect for someone needing to have a place for working on various projects. There is also a great storage/workshop space in front of carport. This home has 2 good sized bedrooms, with a bonus flex space, 2 full baths, dining area open to living room, utility room off of kitchen. Whether you are looking for a home for yourself or a rental property, this home has great possibilities!

20. 2026-04-08
    listed $129,000 Active 672-char remark

    Show marketing remark (672 chars)

    This home has great bones and is full of potential and ready for your personal touch~ With its layout, it is a great opportunity for first time home buyers or investors! Sitting on an oversized lot, it has an awesome round top (approx 30 x 30-40 ft) shop in the back, with electricity, perfect for someone needing to have a place for working on various projects. There is also a great storage/workshop space in front of carport. This home has 2 good sized bedrooms, with a bonus flex space, 2 full baths, dining area open to living room, utility room off of kitchen. Whether you are looking for a home for yourself or a rental property, this home has great possibilities!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,194 · $183/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,194 · $183/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,734
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,596
• − Property taxes: −$2,194
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,339
• − Management: −$1,339
• − Depreciation: −$2,906
• Taxable income: $2,860
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$686
• After-tax cash flow: $3,552/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lubbock ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828500
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $39,820
• Composite: 31.44/100
• National rank: #5984
• State rank: #481 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lubbock

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1749

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lubbock, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 283,030
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 16,089
• Household income: $47,907
• Rent vs Own: 39.7% rent · 60.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 612.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 26% Black 23% Two or more races 16% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 25%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -17.69%
• Current HPI: 178.9297
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.52%
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-18.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $105,000 LARMLS
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $115,000 LARMLS
• 2026-04-08 Listed $129,000 LARMLS

Property tax history

+5.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,194 · +7.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.