4449 S Carpenter Rd Unit D2 · Ceres, CA 95358

$40,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 550 sqft · Manufactured · 52 Days on market

Built 1962 Fair condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Discover the charm of this lovely 2-bedroom, 1-bath mobile home nestled in a welcoming family park. The cozy living room flows into an adorable kitchen, perfect for everyday living. Step outside to your backyard deck, ideal for relaxing or enjoying a simple BBQ with loved ones. This tiny home offers a wonderful opportunity to embrace comfortable, charming living. I'm confident this could be the perfect place for you to start your next chapter. Reach out today, and let's make this delightful home yours!

Key facts

• Cozy living room
• Backyard deck
• Adorable kitchen

Tags

• BACKYARD DECK
• COZY LIVING ROOM
• ADORABLE KITCHEN

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Land lease amount mentioned separately ($775)
• Financial info: Land lease: No (land lease amount listed separately)
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Attached covered parking
• Utilities: Electric: Other; Sewer: Public sewer (also listed as other); Water: Public
• Home design: Manufactured in park; Single wide; Original condition; Built in 1962; Skirted with metal
• Construction: Tar/gravel roof; Metal roof; Other roof material; Biltmore make (mobile home)
• Exterior features: Storage shed(s); Additional storage area

Interior

• Kitchen: Free standing gas range; Microwave
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom with shower stall(s)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Synthetic countertops; Storage area; Living room with additional unspecified feature
• Laundry & utility: Washer included; Dryer included; Stacked washer/dryer configuration included; Other laundry feature

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $40k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $39k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 36.4% vs local median 3.8% in Ceres — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#923 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime D+, schools D-.
• Ceres Unified (suburban): math 15% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #303 of 517 in CA (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 69% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 67 active listings in the ZIP; 923 units permitted in Stanislaus County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $277 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Stanislaus County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($39k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $38,800 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 36.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 107.68%
• DSCR: 5.79
• GRM: 2.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 6.14×
• Total profit: $57,550
• Equity at exit: $5,964

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 12.84×
• Total profit: $132,633
• Equity at exit: $3,458

Cash invested: $11,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95358

• Active inventory: 67
• Price-to-rent: 2.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,622 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$210
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$50 /mo · $600/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$341
• Net cashflow: $1,005

Break-even live

Break-even rent $350

Max offer price $40,000

Occupancy floor 33%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,033	-5% $1,019	+0% $1,005	+5% $991	+10% $977
Rent	-10% $877	-5% $941	+0% $1,005	+5% $1,069	+10% $1,133
Rate	-1.0pp $1,025	-0.5pp $1,015	base $1,005	+0.5pp $995	+1.0pp $984

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,000
• Closing costs: $1,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $40,000 Active 52 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $40,000 Active 51 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $40,000 Active 50 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $40,000 Active 49 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $40,000 Active 47 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $40,000 Active 46 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $40,000 Active 44 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $40,000 Active 43 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $40,000 Active 42 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $40,000 Active 41 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $40,000 Active 38 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $40,000 Active 37 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $40,000 Active 36 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $40,000 Active 35 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $40,000 Active 34 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $40,000 Active 33 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 33 unhealthy d/yr today · 38 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,464
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,241
• − Property taxes: −$600
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,557
• − Management: −$1,557
• − Depreciation: −$1,164
• Taxable income: $12,146
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,915
• After-tax cash flow: $9,145/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This mobile home requires moderate renovations to improve its condition and increase its value. Focus on updating the kitchen and bathrooms, painting interior walls, and replacing carpet to attract buyers and renters.

Repairs flagged

• Major Kitchen cabinets — Old and outdated
• Major Appliances — Outdated and worn
• Major Countertops — Worn and outdated
• Minor Bathroom fixtures — Outdated but functional

Value-add opportunities

• Both Update kitchen cabinets and appliances — Improves both resale and rental value
• Both Replace countertops — Improves both resale and rental value
• Both Update bathroom fixtures — Improves both resale and rental value
• Both Paint interior walls — Improves both resale and rental value
• Both Replace carpet — Improves both resale and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen cabinets · Old and outdated	Major	$15,000–50,000
Appliances · Outdated and worn	Major	$15,000–50,000
Countertops · Worn and outdated	Major	$15,000–50,000
Bathroom fixtures · Outdated but functional	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 4 items		$45,500–153,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Update kitchen cabinets and appliances — Improves both resale and rental value ↑
• Both Replace countertops — Improves both resale and rental value ↑
• Both Update bathroom fixtures — Improves both resale and rental value ↑
• Both Paint interior walls — Improves both resale and rental value ↑
• Both Replace carpet — Improves both resale and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ceres Unified
• NCES district ID: 0608130
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 12.00%
• Median HH income: $48,178
• Composite: 27.96/100
• National rank: #6858
• State rank: #303 of 517 in CA

Livability — Ceres

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #923
• US rank: #24224

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 46,310
• Population (ZIP): 30,994

Population outlook (Stanislaus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 579,493 people
• By 2030: 598,000 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 630,930 · +8.9%
• By 2050: 658,300 · +13.6%
• By 2075: 712,363 · +22.9%
• By 2100: 719,805 · +24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 63% Two or more races 35% White 26% Asian 5% Black 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 61%
• Common ancestry: Russian 3% Iranian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada, South Korea, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 39% English-only · Spanish 53% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Stanislaus

• 2024 margin: R (+11.0) · D 43.2% · R 54.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: 1.7pp · 2024: -11.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.0 2020: D+0.8 2016: D+0.6 2012: D+0.7 2008: D+1.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -248.16%
• Current HPI: 341.6977
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B