1209 S Locust St · Town of Pecos, TX 79772

$199,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · Manufactured public records · 11 Days on market

Built 2013 0.26 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Move-in ready 2013 home with 2 beds, 2 baths and 960 sq ft on two lots. Features a 20x24 carport, large workshop/garage, and a 20x24 covered patio for seating or extra parking. Spacious metal-fenced yard with double gates for drive-through access. Low-maintenance and perfect for entertaining or parking trailers, RV, or other personal equipment. So many options with this property. Washer, dryer, stove, and refrigerator stay.

Key facts

• Metal-fenced yard
• Carport
• Covered patio

Tags

• CARPORT
• WORKSHOP
• COVERED PATIO
• METAL-FENCED YARD
• DOUBLE GATES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size approximately 0.264 acres

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces; 2 covered spaces; Carport; Detached parking
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Propane
• Home design: Manufactured home (single wide); Residential property; Entry on pillar/post/pier foundation
• Construction: Metal roof; Pillar/Post/Pier foundation
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Workshop on property; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Drapes; Smoke detector(s); Solar energy system
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $169 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $180k (10.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $180k (10.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Pecos-Barstow-Toyah ISD (town): math 28% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #652 of 826 in TX (top 79%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Crockett Middle (math 30% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,077 of 1,662 statewide, top 66%, 635 students, 77% FRL); Pecos H S (math 12% / reading 25%, grade F, #1,436 of 1,632 statewide, top 88%, 766 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools at 65% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 88 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 22 units permitted in Reeves County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.1%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Reeves County population projected at +45% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $180,000 (10.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.62%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.09% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-5,164
• Equity at exit: $47,400

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.44×
• Total profit: $24,584
• Equity at exit: $49,051

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79772

• Home prices YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 88
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,800 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$122 /mo · $1,461/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$378
• Net cashflow: $169

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,587

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
415 S Cherry St Unit B Pecos, TX	2.0	1.0	980	$1,800	$1.84	44d	1	0.87mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,900 Active 11 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,900 Active 10 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,900 Active 9 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,900 Active 8 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,900 Active 7 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,900 Active 6 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $199,900 Active 5 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $199,900 Active 2 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   remarks 427-char remark
10. 2026-06-08
    listed $199,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,461 · $122/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,658 · $305/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,197/yr (+$183/mo · 150.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$1,461
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,728
• − Management: −$1,728
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$1,329
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$319
• After-tax cash flow: $2,343/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pecos-Barstow-Toyah ISD
• NCES district ID: 4834550
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $41,982
• Composite: 24.61/100
• National rank: #7632
• State rank: #652 of 826 in TX

Livability — Town of Pecos

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Town of Pecos, TX
• City population: 12,547
• Population (ZIP): 12,547

Population outlook (Reeves County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 17,069 people
• By 2030: 18,407 · +7.8%
• By 2040: 21,342 · +25.0%
• By 2050: 24,701 · +44.7%
• By 2075: 32,688 · +91.5%
• By 2100: 36,117 · +111.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 85% Two or more races 22% White 12% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 78%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada
• Languages at home: 38% English-only · Spanish 62%

Political lean MEDSL · Reeves

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.9) · D 31.1% · R 68.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -42.2pp toward R · 2008: 5.2pp · 2024: -36.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.9 2020: R+23.3 2016: D+7.6 2012: D+16.2 2008: D+5.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.09%
• Current HPI: 147.9377
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-07 Listed $199,900 ODMLS
• 2018-07-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+29.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,461 · +2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.