3109 Walnut St · Amarillo, TX 79107

$85,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 928 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1997 ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.1/30.0
• DSCR +8.2/10.0
• 1% rule +7.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Built in 1997 with central heat and air. The house is move-in ready as it sits but could use new carpet and a few other minor cosmetic updates. Could make a great rental or affordable starter home. Call or message me if you& apos; d like more information or to take a look.

Key facts

• Built 1997

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $189 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#624 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, schools D, crime F.
• Amarillo ISD (urban): math 44% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #336 of 826 in TX (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 120 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,214 units permitted in Potter County in 2024 (650 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($41k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $85,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.52%
• DSCR: 1.42
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.93×
• Total profit: $-1,679
• Equity at exit: $12,674

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.60×
• Total profit: $14,307
• Equity at exit: $7,349

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79107

• Home prices YoY: -20.9%
• Active inventory: 120
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,094 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$194 /mo · $2,331/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$230
• Net cashflow: $189

Break-even live

Break-even rent $855

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2800 Redwood St Amarillo, TX	3.0	1.0	926	$1,350	$1.46	43d	1	0.24mi
509 Jason Ave Amarillo, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	931	$962	$1.03	12d	1	0.34mi
2904 N Mirror St Amarillo, TX	2.0	1.0	608	$1,050	$1.73	20d	1	0.37mi
4005 Hilltop Dr Apt C Amarillo, TX	2.0	1.0	784	$850	$1.08	20d	1	0.52mi
4005 Hilltop Dr Apt D Amarillo, TX	3.0	2.0	924	$1,250	$1.35	20d	1	0.52mi
1819 Darden St Amarillo, TX	3.0	1.0	1114	$1,095	$0.98	43d	1	1.27mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-03-26
   soldstatus
2. 2026-03-12
   soldstatus
3. 2025-05-29
   price $98,000
4. 2025-05-19
   price $100,000
5. 2025-04-30
   price $105,000
6. 2025-04-09
   price $110,000
7. 2021-04-08
   soldstatus
8. 2007-04-11
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,331 · $194/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,331 · $194/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,127
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$2,331
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,050
• − Management: −$1,050
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $1,037
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$249
• After-tax cash flow: $2,017/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Amarillo ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808130
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $43,478
• Composite: 35.96/100
• National rank: #4798
• State rank: #336 of 826 in TX

Livability — Amarillo

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #624
• US rank: #11876

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Amarillo, TX
• County: Potter County · 72,216 people
• City population: 185,802
• Metro: Amarillo, TX
• Population (ZIP): 36,662
• Household income: $40,671
• Rent vs Own: 44.0% rent · 56.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1019.0

Population outlook (Potter County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 121,296 people
• By 2030: 120,883 · -0.3%
• By 2040: 119,668 · -1.3%
• By 2050: 117,788 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 110,250 · -9.1%
• By 2100: 92,923 · -23.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 45% Black 25% Two or more races 17% White 16% Asian 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 41%
• Common ancestry: Ukrainian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 27% · Canada, Philippines, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 50% English-only · Spanish 35% Other Asian/Pacific 7% Vietnamese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Potter

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+44.4) · D 27.3% · R 71.7% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.0pp toward R · 2008: -39.4pp · 2024: -44.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+44.4 2020: R+38.7 2016: R+41.9 2012: R+44.6 2008: R+39.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -57.01%
• Current HPI: 215.7976
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Amarillo, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-10.9% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2026-03-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-05-29 Price Changed $98,000 AARMLS
• 2025-05-19 Price Changed $100,000 AARMLS
• 2025-04-30 Price Changed $105,000 AARMLS
• 2025-04-09 Price Changed $110,000 AARMLS
• 2021-04-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2007-04-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,331 · -4.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.