45 Tivoli Gdns · Tivoli, NY 12583

$199,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 562 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 242 Days on market

Built 1988 436 sqft lot $325/mo HOA · 15% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.1/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Enjoy low-maintenance, easy living in this light-filled one bedroom, 2nd floor end unit located in the quiet Tivoli Gardens community. This one floor condo offers an open kitchen/dining and living room, a balcony off the bedroom and one bath. Laundry in the bathroom closet with a stackable Bosch washer and dryer. One detached, covered garage with room for storage. Walking distance to Tivoli Village, library, post office, restaurants and shops. Take a short drive to Kaatsbaan, the Hudson River waterfront, Clermont State park, Olana State Historic Site, Bard College, Fisher Center, Villages of Red Hook, Germantown, Rhinebeck and Amtrak train station in Rhinecliff.

Key facts

• Clermont state park
• Bard college
• Garage

Tags

• BALCONY OFF THE BEDROOM
• SHORT DRIVE TO KAATSBAAN
• HUDSON RIVER WATERFRONT
• CLERMONT STATE PARK
• OLANA STATE HISTORIC SITE
• BARD COLLEGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $29 ($345/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $199k).
• Recommended offer: $175k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#829 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: commute C-, crime D+, schools F.
• Red Hook Central School District (town): math 58% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #245 of 590 in NY (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 15 active listings in the ZIP; 620 units permitted in Dutchess County in 2024 (242 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Dutchess County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 242 days — a 12% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $42k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $100k; list at $199k implies a 99% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $175,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 242 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.62%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.98×
• Total profit: $110,415
• Equity at exit: $179,275

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.9%
• Equity multiple: 6.82×
• Total profit: $324,116
• Equity at exit: $386,613

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12583

• Home prices YoY: 25.9%
• Active inventory: 15
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,128 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$200 /mo · $2,406/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$325
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$447
• Net cashflow: $29

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,091

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 94%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $325 · $3,900/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-10
   days on market $199,000 Active 242 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,000 Active 241 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,000 Active 240 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $199,000 Active 239 DOM
5. 2026-06-05
   days on market $199,000 Active 236 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $199,000 Active 235 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $199,000 Active 234 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $199,000 Active 233 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $199,000 Active 232 DOM
10. 2026-05-30
    days on market $199,000 Active 231 DOM
11. 2026-05-06
    price $199,000 671-char remark

    Show marketing remark (671 chars)

    Enjoy low-maintenance, easy living in this light-filled one bedroom, 2nd floor end unit located in the quiet Tivoli Gardens community. This one floor condo offers an open kitchen/dining and living room, a balcony off the bedroom and one bath. Laundry in the bathroom closet with a stackable Bosch washer and dryer. One detached, covered garage with room for storage. Walking distance to Tivoli Village, library, post office, restaurants and shops. Take a short drive to Kaatsbaan, the Hudson River waterfront, Clermont State park, Olana State Historic Site, Bard College, Fisher Center, Villages of Red Hook, Germantown, Rhinebeck and Amtrak train station in Rhinecliff.

12. 2026-04-10
    price $210,000 671-char remark

    Show marketing remark (671 chars)

    Enjoy low-maintenance, easy living in this light-filled one bedroom, 2nd floor end unit located in the quiet Tivoli Gardens community. This one floor condo offers an open kitchen/dining and living room, a balcony off the bedroom and one bath. Laundry in the bathroom closet with a stackable Bosch washer and dryer. One detached, covered garage with room for storage. Walking distance to Tivoli Village, library, post office, restaurants and shops. Take a short drive to Kaatsbaan, the Hudson River waterfront, Clermont State park, Olana State Historic Site, Bard College, Fisher Center, Villages of Red Hook, Germantown, Rhinebeck and Amtrak train station in Rhinecliff.

13. 2026-01-04
    price $215,000 671-char remark

    Show marketing remark (671 chars)

    Enjoy low-maintenance, easy living in this light-filled one bedroom, 2nd floor end unit located in the quiet Tivoli Gardens community. This one floor condo offers an open kitchen/dining and living room, a balcony off the bedroom and one bath. Laundry in the bathroom closet with a stackable Bosch washer and dryer. One detached, covered garage with room for storage. Walking distance to Tivoli Village, library, post office, restaurants and shops. Take a short drive to Kaatsbaan, the Hudson River waterfront, Clermont State park, Olana State Historic Site, Bard College, Fisher Center, Villages of Red Hook, Germantown, Rhinebeck and Amtrak train station in Rhinecliff.

14. 2025-10-11
    historical $1,800
15. 2025-10-10
    listed $241,000 Active 671-char remark

    Show marketing remark (671 chars)

    Enjoy low-maintenance, easy living in this light-filled one bedroom, 2nd floor end unit located in the quiet Tivoli Gardens community. This one floor condo offers an open kitchen/dining and living room, a balcony off the bedroom and one bath. Laundry in the bathroom closet with a stackable Bosch washer and dryer. One detached, covered garage with room for storage. Walking distance to Tivoli Village, library, post office, restaurants and shops. Take a short drive to Kaatsbaan, the Hudson River waterfront, Clermont State park, Olana State Historic Site, Bard College, Fisher Center, Villages of Red Hook, Germantown, Rhinebeck and Amtrak train station in Rhinecliff.

16. 2025-09-23
    listed $1,800
17. 2015-01-12
    soldstatus $100,000
18. 1997-06-19
    soldstatus $35,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,406 · $200/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,884 · $240/mo
• Expected delta: +$479/yr (+$40/mo · 19.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 10% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,530
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$2,406
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,042
• − Management: −$2,042
• − HOA: −$3,900
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$2,791
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$670
• After-tax cash flow: $1,015/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Red Hook Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3624240
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $69,040
• Composite: 50.84/100
• National rank: #1801
• State rank: #245 of 590 in NY

Livability — Tivoli

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #829
• US rank: #16069

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C- Cost of living D- Crime D+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tivoli, NY
• Population (ZIP): 1,927

Population outlook (Dutchess County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 291,768 people
• By 2030: 287,131 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 274,881 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 259,971 · -10.9%
• By 2075: 235,366 · -19.3%
• By 2100: 208,786 · -28.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 4% Scotch-Irish 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, South Korea, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dutchess

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.4) · D 52.7% · R 47.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.2pp toward R · 2008: 8.6pp · 2024: 5.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.4 2020: D+9.6 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+6.6 2008: D+8.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 92.35%
• Current HPI: 448.7788
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+468.6% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $199,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $210,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-04 Price Changed $215,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-11 Rental Removed $1,800 ONEKEY
• 2025-10-10 Listed $241,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-23 Listed for Rent $1,800 ONEKEY
• 2015-01-12 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records
• 1997-06-19 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,406 · +5.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.