2400 Appaloosa Rd · Lake Wales, FL 33898

$153,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · Manufactured public records · 36 Days on market

Built 1995 0.46 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.7/30.0
• DSCR +9.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 bedroom 2 bath home with large rooms throughout on almost 1/2 acre fenced lot. Split bedroom plan with large master bath with garden tub and separate shower. Walk in closet in master bedroom and 3rd bedroom. Large kitchen with breakfast bar and tons of cabinets. 2 storage sheds located on the property and large back yard.

Key facts

• Nicely done kitchen
• Spacious living area
• Split floor plan

Tags

• ALMOST A 1/2 ACRE LOT
• SPACIOUS LIVING AREA
• NICELY DONE KITCHEN
• SPLIT FLOOR PLAN
• INSIDE UTILITY ROOM
• SOLAR PANELS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Homestead exempt; Unfurnished
• HOA & community: Pets allowed; No association

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Carport with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer; Electricity connected; Propane available; Cable available; Fire hydrant on property
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; One story; Faces north
• Construction: Vinyl siding and frame construction; Metal roof; Crawlspace foundation; Completed condition
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Private mailbox; Chain link fencing; Shed(s); Mature landscaping with oak trees; Level, paved lot in county; Public maintained road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Solid surface counters; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Solid surface counters; Split bedroom floorplan; Walk-in closets; Blinds, drapes and rods
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Washer; Dryer; Electric water heater; Inside utility room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $154k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $416 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $154k).
• Recommended offer: $149k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#535 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lake Wales Senior High School (math 32% / reading 45%, grade F, #321 of 667 statewide, top 49%, 1,586 students, 64% FRL, charter) — zoned schools at 64% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 500 active listings in the ZIP; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($149k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $107k; 44% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $149,283 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.59%
• DSCR: 1.52
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.04×
• Total profit: $1,564
• Equity at exit: $22,947

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.82×
• Total profit: $35,465
• Equity at exit: $13,306

Cash invested: $43,092 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33898

• Home prices YoY: -15.1%
• Active inventory: 500
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,801 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$807
• Tax from tax record: −$135 /mo · $1,622/yr
• Insurance: −$64
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$378
• Net cashflow: $416

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,274

Max offer price $153,900

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $503	-5% $460	+0% $416	+5% $373	+10% $329
Rent	-10% $274	-5% $345	+0% $416	+5% $487	+10% $558
Rate	-1.0pp $494	-0.5pp $455	base $416	+0.5pp $376	+1.0pp $336

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,475
• Closing costs: $4,617
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-07
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-01
   price $153,900
3. 2026-04-15
   price $159,900
4. 2026-04-01
   listed $169,000 Active
5. 2021-05-20
   soldstatus $107,000
6. 2021-05-17
   soldstatus $107,000 Closed 325-char remark

   Show marketing remark (325 chars)

   3 bedroom 2 bath home with large rooms throughout on almost 1/2 acre fenced lot. Split bedroom plan with large master bath with garden tub and separate shower. Walk in closet in master bedroom and 3rd bedroom. Large kitchen with breakfast bar and tons of cabinets. 2 storage sheds located on the property and large back yard.

7. 2021-03-25
   status Pending 325-char remark

   Show marketing remark (325 chars)

   3 bedroom 2 bath home with large rooms throughout on almost 1/2 acre fenced lot. Split bedroom plan with large master bath with garden tub and separate shower. Walk in closet in master bedroom and 3rd bedroom. Large kitchen with breakfast bar and tons of cabinets. 2 storage sheds located on the property and large back yard.

8. 2021-03-20
   listed $115,000 Active 325-char remark

   Show marketing remark (325 chars)

   3 bedroom 2 bath home with large rooms throughout on almost 1/2 acre fenced lot. Split bedroom plan with large master bath with garden tub and separate shower. Walk in closet in master bedroom and 3rd bedroom. Large kitchen with breakfast bar and tons of cabinets. 2 storage sheds located on the property and large back yard.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,622 · $135/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,622 · $135/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 72% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,609
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,621
• − Property taxes: −$1,622
• − Insurance: −$770
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,729
• − Management: −$1,729
• − Depreciation: −$4,477
• Taxable income: $2,662
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$639
• After-tax cash flow: $4,356/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lake Wales

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #535
• US rank: #10036

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 30,351
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 18,527
• Household income: $57,224
• Rent vs Own: 12.6% rent · 87.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 148.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 10% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 17% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -60.62%
• Current HPI: 340.6056
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+33.8% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $153,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $159,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-01 Listed $169,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-05-20 Sold (Public Records) $107,000 Public Records
• 2021-05-17 Sold (MLS) $107,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-03-25 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-03-20 Listed $115,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+26.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,622 · +8.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.