331 Pettus St · South Hill, VA 23970

$163,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 36 Days on market

Built 1995 1.26 ac lot $141/sqft · 23% below area Est $214k · 24% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

HUD Case #541-792923 IN (Insured Escrow) Located just 2 miles off of I85, this ranch home sets on a mostly wooded 1.26 acre lot. Welcomed by a full country front porch, enter into an open and light filled living room and dining area. The side entrance off the driveway into the laundry room and galley kitchen is perfect for bringing home the shopping.

Key facts

• Side entrance
• Ranch home
• Open living room

Tags

• RANCH HOME
• MOSTLY WOODED LOT
• COUNTRY FRONT PORCH
• OPEN LIVING ROOM
• LIGHT FILLED DINING AREA
• SIDE ENTRANCE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $163k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $219 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $150k (7.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $150k (7.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 4.6% in South Hill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#102 in VA, #3,220 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, commute F.
• Mecklenburg County Public School District (rural): math 57% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #49 of 131 in VA (top 37%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 58 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 153 units permitted in Mecklenburg County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mecklenburg County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,338 (7.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 8% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.77%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $213,981
• List price: $163,000
• Delta: -23.82%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1213 Pace Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,232 (+7%)	6mo	$240,000	$195	75
101 Redbud Ln	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,232 (+7%)	0mo	$239,000	$194	55
1218 Valley Rd	0.30mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,242 (+8%)	18mo	$225,000	$181	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-12,516
• Equity at exit: $24,304

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.15×
• Total profit: $6,789
• Equity at exit: $14,093

Cash invested: $45,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23970

• Home prices YoY: -16.6%
• Active inventory: 58
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,503 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$855
• Tax from tax record: −$46 /mo · $547/yr
• Insurance: −$68
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$316
• Net cashflow: $219

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,226

Max offer price $163,000

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $312	-5% $265	+0% $219	+5% $173	+10% $127
Rent	-10% $101	-5% $160	+0% $219	+5% $279	+10% $338
Rate	-1.0pp $301	-0.5pp $261	base $219	+0.5pp $177	+1.0pp $134

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,750
• Closing costs: $4,890
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
881 Powell Dr Unit 5-867 South Hill, VA	2.0	1.0	839	$953	$1.14	15d	1	0.93mi

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-04-20
   listed $163,000 Active 352-char remark

   Show marketing remark (352 chars)

   HUD Case #541-792923 IN (Insured Escrow) Located just 2 miles off of I85, this ranch home sets on a mostly wooded 1.26 acre lot. Welcomed by a full country front porch, enter into an open and light filled living room and dining area. The side entrance off the driveway into the laundry room and galley kitchen is perfect for bringing home the shopping.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $547 · $46/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,337 · $111/mo
• Expected delta: +$789/yr (+$66/mo · 144.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,041
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,131
• − Property taxes: −$547
• − Insurance: −$815
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,443
• − Management: −$1,443
• − Depreciation: −$4,742
• Taxable loss: −$80
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$19
• After-tax cash flow: $2,652/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mecklenburg County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102460
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -29.00%
• Reading proficiency: 72% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $37,491
• Composite: 53.55/100
• National rank: #1446
• State rank: #49 of 131 in VA

Livability — South Hill

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #102
• US rank: #3220

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: South Hill, VA
• County: Mecklenburg County · 8,109 people
• City population: 8,109
• Metro: nan
• Population (ZIP): 8,109
• Household income: $65,170
• Rent vs Own: 40.6% rent · 59.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 129.0

Population outlook (Mecklenburg County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,332 people
• By 2030: 26,742 · -5.6%
• By 2040: 23,502 · -17.0%
• By 2050: 20,851 · -26.4%
• By 2075: 17,525 · -38.1%
• By 2100: 14,524 · -48.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Black 37% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Italian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Mecklenburg

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.8) · D 39.4% · R 60.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.2pp toward R · 2008: -4.6pp · 2024: -20.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.8 2020: R+15.2 2016: R+11.3 2012: R+7.2 2008: R+4.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -37.95%
• Current HPI: 190.7286
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: nan
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Listed $163,000 CVRMLS

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $547 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.