3924 Willard Ave · Birmingham, AL 35221

$39,900

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,610 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1952 0.48 ac lot ↓ 43% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.9/10.0

Listing remarks

ENJOY YOUR OWN PRIVATE ISLAND. FOUR LOTS ALL FENCED, LOTS OF FRUIT TREES, PEAR, PLUM, PEACH AND PECAN TREES. TWO BEDROOMS, LIVING / DINING AND FULL BATH ALL ON MAIN LEVEL. THE KITCHEN AND DEN ARE BOTH DOWN STAIRS PERFECT SPOT FOR ENTERTAINING. THERE IS AN EATING AREA JUST OFF THE KITCHEN. CARPORT JUST STEPS FROM THE DOOR. OWNER IS READY TO SELL. BRING ALL OFFERS. HOME IS BEING SOLD AS-IS.

Key facts

• 0.48 acre lot
• Parking
• Built 1952

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $622 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).
• Cap rate 25.0% vs local median 6.2% in Birmingham — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#78 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, crime F, employment F.
• Birmingham City (urban): math 4% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #116 of 129 in AL (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 82% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Wenonah High School (math 2% / reading 2%, grade F, #291 of 305 statewide, top 100%, 656 students, 85% FRL) — zoned schools at 85% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 26 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,114 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (556 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.3%/yr); year-one equity from $276 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $526 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-1.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.6% of price; built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $39,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 25.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 66.84%
• DSCR: 3.97
• GRM: 2.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $82,110
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3609 Doby Ave SW	0.20mi	4/1.0	1,528 (-5%)	13mo	$42,901	$28	72
4925 Park Ave SW	0.63mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,600 (-1%)	15mo	$43,500	$27	52
4609 Grasselli Blvd SW	0.48mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,673 (+4%)	19mo	$78,000	$47	46
4011 Walnut Ave SW	0.48mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,372 (-15%)	10mo	$80,000	$58	39
929 49th St	0.64mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,442 (-10%)	10mo	$101,000	$70	38
3040 Wenonah Park Pl SW	0.59mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,778 (+10%)	12mo	$90,000	$51	36
4533 Jefferson Ave	0.56mi	4/2.0	1,792 (+11%)	20mo	$45,000	$25	34
3013 SW Wenonah Park Pl	0.67mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,688 (+5%)	22mo	$210,000	$124	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.32% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 67.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.23×
• Total profit: $36,122
• Equity at exit: $9,026

10-year hold

• IRR: 70.6%
• Equity multiple: 8.65×
• Total profit: $85,410
• Equity at exit: $8,972

Cash invested: $11,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35221

• Home prices YoY: -1.1%
• Active inventory: 26
• Price-to-rent: 2.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,225 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$209
• Tax from tax record: −$120 /mo · $1,434/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$257
• Net cashflow: $622

Break-even live

Break-even rent $437

Max offer price $39,900

Occupancy floor 44%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,975
• Closing costs: $1,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3640 Wenonah Rd SW Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,195	$1.09	23d	1	0.25mi
3640 Wenonah Rd SW Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,195	$1.09	12d	1	0.25mi
3720 Howard Ave SW Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1092	$1,200	$1.10	23d	1	0.26mi
3515 Carver Ave SW Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1580	$1,100	$0.70	3d	1	0.31mi
3515 Carver Ave SW Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1584	$1,075	$0.68	23d	1	0.31mi
3225 Wenonah Rd SW Birmingham, AL	4.0	3.0	2154	$1,550	$0.72	1d	1	0.57mi
3729 Pine Ave SW Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1067	$1,100	$1.03	21d	1	0.57mi
3020 Wenonah Park Pl SW Birmingham, AL	4.0	2.5	2200	$1,999	$0.91	1d	1	0.62mi
3728 Hickory Ave SW Birmingham, AL	5.0	2.0	1869	$1,450	$0.78	1d	1	0.85mi
3533 Jefferson Ave SW Birmingham, AL	5.0	2.5	1911	$1,500	$0.78	1d	1	1.02mi
3400 Walnut Ave SW Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1133	$1,200	$1.06	44d	1	1.03mi
3332 Walnut Ave SW Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1339	$750	$0.56	19d	1	1.10mi
2850 Venice Rd Birmingham, AL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1190	$1,957	$1.64	1d	18	1.17mi
3417 Park Ave SW Birmingham, AL	4.0	1.0	1402	$900	$0.64	44d	1	1.17mi
2548 28th St SW Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1762	$1,000	$0.57	2d	1	1.29mi
1441 Creel St Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1319	$1,275	$0.97	3d	1	1.30mi
537 Grant St Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1444	$1,200	$0.83	23d	1	1.33mi
1433 Rayfield Dr Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1064	$950	$0.89	44d	1	1.40mi
5624 Cairo Ave Birmingham, AL	4.0	2.0	1386	$1,200	$0.87	44d	1	1.41mi
408 Midway St Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1301	$1,075	$0.83	19d	1	1.46mi
1112 S Gale Dr Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.5	1053	$1,175	$1.12	44d	1	1.48mi
1412 Woodward Rd Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1220	$1,203	$0.99	16d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2022-05-12
   status Pending
2. 2022-05-09
   status Active
3. 2021-10-28
   historical
4. 2021-10-07
   listed $39,900 Active
5. 2019-11-04
   price $62,500
6. 2019-09-09
   price $69,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,434 · $120/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,434 · $120/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,699
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,235
• − Property taxes: −$1,434
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,176
• − Management: −$1,176
• − Depreciation: −$1,161
• Taxable income: $7,317
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,756
• After-tax cash flow: $5,711/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Birmingham City
• NCES district ID: 0100390
• Math proficiency: 4% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $31,988
• Composite: 9.49/100
• National rank: #9850
• State rank: #116 of 129 in AL

Livability — Birmingham

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #78
• US rank: #10412

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Birmingham, AL
• City population: 210,422
• Population (ZIP): 3,127

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 669,185 people
• By 2030: 669,694 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 661,388 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 643,086 · -3.9%
• By 2075: 577,267 · -13.7%
• By 2100: 474,758 · -29.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 89% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% White 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+10.4) · D 54.6% · R 44.2% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.4pp toward D · 2008: 5.1pp · 2024: 10.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.4 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+7.2 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+5.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.32%
• Current HPI: 121.0566
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

-42.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2022-05-12 Pending — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2022-05-09 Relisted — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2021-10-28 Delisted — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2021-10-07 Listed $39,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2019-11-04 Price Changed $62,500 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2019-09-09 Price Changed $69,900 Greater Alabama MLS

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,434 · +6.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.