4401 Steinbeck Way · Ave Maria, FL 34142

$415,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,558 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 77 Days on market

Built 2007 7,840 sqft lot $180/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 4401 Steinbeck Ave in the beautiful community of Ave Maria! This well-maintained home offers a perfect blend of comfort, style, and convenience. Featuring an open and inviting floor plan, the home is filled with natural light and thoughtfully designed living spaces that make everyday living and entertaining a pleasure. The spacious kitchen serves as the heart of the home, offering ample cabinetry, modern appliances, and a generous counter space that flows seamlessly into the dining and living areas. The primary suite provides a relaxing retreat with a well-appointed bathroom and plenty of closet space, while the additional bedrooms are ideal for family, guests, or a home office.

Key facts

• 7,840 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Pool

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot is a corner unit on a lot of about 0.18 acres with lake view and lake frontage; irrigation is central; Property located in the Ave Maria development
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA (quarterly fees); HOA fee approximately $337 quarterly; Master HOA fee approximately $203 quarterly; Professional management; Community amenities include basketball, bike/jog path, community park, dog park, exercise room, pickleball, play area, restaurant, shopping, sidewalks, streetlights, and tennis court; Non-gated community; Total annual recurring fees approximately $2,160

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Paved driveway
• Utilities: Central water; Central sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Single family residential; 1 story (ranch); Rear exposure to the east
• Construction: Concrete block construction; Tile roof; Built in 2007
• Exterior features: Stucco exterior; Fence; Patio; Screened, below-ground private pool; Single hung windows; Manual storm shutters

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop (electric); Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Refrigerator/Freezer; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Master bath with dual sinks and separate tub and shower
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heat; Central electric cooling; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Foyer; Pantry; Split bedroom floor plan; Screened lanai/porch
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry in residence

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $415k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-220 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $376k (9.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $353k (14.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $353k (14.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Estates Elementary School (math 70% / reading 67%, grade B+, #409 of 2,144 statewide, top 20%, 862 students, 53% FRL); Corkscrew Middle School (math 68% / reading 59%, grade B+, #109 of 571 statewide, top 19%, 958 students, 43% FRL); Palmetto Ridge High School (math 43% / reading 51%, grade D-, #207 of 667 statewide, top 32%, 2,347 students, 38% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 453 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,533/mo this rent would consume 68% of the median local household income ($62k/yr) (locally 1093% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.1%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 77 days — a 6% lower offer ($390k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 10 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $353,298 (14.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 77 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
8. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
9. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.66%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.27%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.05% appreciation · 2.95% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-46,194
• Equity at exit: $99,216

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-25,541
• Equity at exit: $103,369

Cash invested: $116,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34142

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 453
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,533 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,176
• Tax from tax record: −$482 /mo · $5,781/yr
• Insurance: −$173
• HOA: −$180
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$742
• Net cashflow: $-220

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,811

Max offer price $376,148

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $15	-5% $-102	+0% $-220	+5% $-337	+10% $-455
Rent	-10% $-499	-5% $-359	+0% $-220	+5% $-80	+10% $59
Rate	-1.0pp $-11	-0.5pp $-114	base $-220	+0.5pp $-327	+1.0pp $-437

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $103,750
• Closing costs: $12,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 25 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4546 Battlecreek Way Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	2104	$3,900	$1.85	25d	1	0.32mi
4390 Battlecreek Way Ave Maria, FL	4.0	2.5	2060	$3,295	$1.60	25d	1	0.44mi
5068 Annunciation Cir #4201 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1266	$3,400	$2.69	25d	1	0.56mi
5076 Annunciation Cir #2206 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1206	$3,100	$2.57	25d	1	0.63mi
5076 Annunciation Cir #2305 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1166	$2,800	$2.40	25d	1	0.63mi
5080 Annunciation Cir #1306 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1700	$4,500	$2.65	25d	1	0.67mi
5032 Arancia Ln Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1525	$2,595	$1.70	15d	1	0.74mi
5265 Messina St Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	1929	$4,995	$2.59	25d	1	1.04mi
4881 Gambero Way Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	2037	$2,800	$1.37	12d	1	1.06mi
4925 Gambero Way Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1525	$4,000	$2.62	25d	1	1.15mi
4957 Gambero Way Unit 4957 Ave Maria, FL	4.0	3.0	1500	$3,400	$2.27	13d	1	1.21mi
5374 Ferris Ave Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	1933	$2,350	$1.22	25d	1	1.29mi
5089 Penella Ave Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	2028	$2,300	$1.13	15d	1	1.30mi
5322 Nevola Ave Ave Maria, FL	3.0	3.0	1918	$2,700	$1.41	15d	1	1.30mi
5187 Nevola Ave Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	1680	$2,700	$1.61	23d	1	1.35mi
5360 Brin Way Ave Maria, FL	4.0	2.5	1088	$2,495	$2.29	25d	1	1.40mi
5376 Fancourt Links Way Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.5	1850	$6,850	$3.70	23d	1	1.40mi
5538 Useppa Dr Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.5	1850	$10,995	$5.94	25d	1	1.40mi
5474 Cassidy Ln Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	2032	$2,650	$1.30	25d	1	1.41mi
5435 Pikewood Ct Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.5	1850	$3,695	$2.00	23d	1	1.46mi
5522 Hampton Links Ct Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.5	1850	$3,995	$2.16	25d	1	1.46mi
5309 Beckton Rd Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	2051	$2,395	$1.17	25d	1	1.49mi
5412 Fancourt Links Way Ave Maria, FL	4.0	3.0	2247	$8,000	$3.56	23d	1	1.49mi
5574 Cassidy Ln Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1630	$2,250	$1.38	23d	1	1.50mi
5545 Hampton Links Ct Ave Maria, FL	4.0	3.0	2247	$8,500	$3.78	25d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $180 · $2,160/yr

Listing history 33 events

1. 2026-03-11
   listed $415,000 Active
2. 2026-03-03
   historical
3. 2025-11-13
   listed $435,000 Active
4. 2025-09-25
   historical
5. 2025-04-07
   listed $475,000 Active
6. 2023-03-01
   soldstatus $425,000
7. 2023-02-24
   soldstatus $425,000 Sold
8. 2022-12-27
   status Pending With Contingencies
9. 2022-12-01
   price $434,990
10. 2022-10-19
    listed $439,990 Active
11. 2019-10-11
    soldstatus $259,000
12. 2019-10-04
    soldstatus $259,000 Sold
13. 2019-09-17
    status Pending With Contingencies
14. 2019-07-29
    price $264,900
15. 2019-06-12
    listed $269,900 Active
16. 2017-05-01
    soldstatus $247,000
17. 2017-04-26
    soldstatus $247,000 Sold
18. 2017-03-15
    status Pending With Contingencies
19. 2017-03-09
    price $249,900
20. 2017-02-28
    listed $259,000 Active
21. 2015-12-01
    soldstatus $231,500
22. 2015-11-20
    price $231,500
23. 2015-11-19
    soldstatus $231,500 Sold
24. 2015-10-06
    historical
25. 2015-10-06
    price $239,900
26. 2015-09-09
    listed $239,900 Active
27. 2013-11-14
    soldstatus $177,100
28. 2011-11-17
    soldstatus $146,000
29. 2011-11-17
    soldstatus $146,000
30. 2011-09-09
    listed $154,900
31. 2011-09-08
    listed $154,900
32. 2010-05-05
    historical
33. 2009-09-25
    listed $164,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,781 · $482/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,781 · $482/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $42,396
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,246
• − Property taxes: −$5,781
• − Insurance: −$2,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,392
• − Management: −$3,392
• − HOA: −$2,160
• − Depreciation: −$12,073
• Taxable loss: −$9,723
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,333
• After-tax cash flow: $-306/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Collier
• NCES district ID: 1200330
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,275
• Composite: 50.23/100
• National rank: #1892
• State rank: #16 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ave Maria

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ave Maria, FL
• County: Collier County · 396,295 people
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• Population (ZIP): 35,149
• Household income: $62,333
• Rent vs Own: 48.7% rent · 51.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1093.0

Population outlook (Collier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,858 people
• By 2030: 450,054 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 502,232 · +19.3%
• By 2050: 544,932 · +29.5%
• By 2075: 627,203 · +49.0%
• By 2100: 659,015 · +56.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 63% Two or more races 39% Black 19% White 16% Native American 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 43% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 8% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 32% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 34% English-only · Spanish 53% French/Haitian/Cajun 12%

Political lean MEDSL · Collier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.1) · D 33.1% · R 66.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.5pp · 2024: -33.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.1 2020: R+24.7 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+30.1 2008: R+22.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.05%
• Current HPI: 226.9105
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.95%
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+151.7% since first listed

33 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-11 Listed $415,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2026-03-03 Listing Removed — NAPLESMLS
• 2025-11-13 Listed $435,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2025-09-25 Listing Removed — NAPLESMLS
• 2025-04-07 Listed $475,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2023-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $425,000 Public Records
• 2023-02-24 Sold (MLS) $425,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2022-12-27 Pending — NAPLESMLS
• 2022-12-01 Price Changed $434,990 NAPLESMLS
• 2022-10-19 Listed $439,990 NAPLESMLS
• 2019-10-11 Sold (Public Records) $259,000 Public Records
• 2019-10-04 Sold (MLS) $259,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2019-09-17 Pending — NAPLESMLS
• 2019-07-29 Price Changed $264,900 NAPLESMLS
• 2019-06-12 Listed $269,900 NAPLESMLS
• 2017-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $247,000 Public Records
• 2017-04-26 Sold (MLS) $247,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2017-03-15 Pending — NAPLESMLS
• 2017-03-09 Price Changed $249,900 NAPLESMLS
• 2017-02-28 Listed $259,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2015-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $231,500 Public Records
• 2015-11-20 Price Changed $231,500 NAPLESMLS
• 2015-11-19 Sold (MLS) $231,500 NAPLESMLS
• 2015-10-06 Price Changed $239,900 NAPLESMLS
• 2015-10-06 Listing Removed — NAPLESMLS
• 2015-09-09 Listed $239,900 NAPLESMLS
• 2013-11-14 Sold (Public Records) $177,100 Public Records
• 2011-11-17 Sold (MLS) $146,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2011-11-17 Sold (MLS) $146,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-09-09 Listed $154,900 NAPLESMLS
• 2011-09-08 Listed $154,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-05-05 Listing Removed — NAPLESMLS
• 2009-09-25 Listed $164,900 NAPLESMLS

Property tax history

+9.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,781 · +3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.