309 S 21st Ave · Hattiesburg, MS 39401

$169,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,764 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 13 Days on market

Built 1960 0.26 ac lot Est $187k · 10% under ↓ 39% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.3/30.0
• ARV discount +11.8/15.0
• DSCR +6.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

OH THAT SOUTHERN CHARM! A white picket fence welcomes you into the yard, then a wide front porch welcomes you into the home. Updated, with wood flooring throughout, spacious living room, formal dining, modern kitchen with stainless steel appliances, den with access to 2 brick patios and an upstairs screened porch. You will love this quiet, established and very popular neighborhood!

Key facts

• Alley access
• Sunroom
• Hardwood floors

Tags

• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• SUNROOM
• ALLEY ACCESS
• PARKHAVEN NEIGHBORHOOD

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; No garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Two levels; Raised foundation; Wood siding
• Construction: Wood siding construction; Raised foundation
• Exterior features: Porch; Front porch; Patio; Fenced yard; No additional exterior features listed

Interior

• Flooring: Wood flooring; Ceramic tile flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump (cooling present)
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; High ceilings

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $169k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $247 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $166k (1.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $166k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 4.0% in Hattiesburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#5 in MS, #2,046 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, crime D+, employment F.
• Hattiesburg Public School District (urban): math 25% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #81 of 130 in MS (top 62%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 88% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.6%/yr); 261 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 121 units permitted in Forrest County in 2024 (30 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,665/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($41k/yr) (locally 2534% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Forrest County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.6% rent growth), your $47k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $166,459 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.25%
• DSCR: 1.28
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $186,984
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2201 Mcinnis St	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,775 (+1%)	8mo	$215,000	$121	59
219 N 23rd Ave	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,652 (-6%)	15mo	$175,000	$106	52
1407 Concart St	0.73mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,520 (-14%)	18mo	$149,000	$98	19

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.56% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.88×
• Total profit: $-5,545
• Equity at exit: $25,198

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.90×
• Total profit: $42,510
• Equity at exit: $14,612

Cash invested: $47,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39401

• Rents YoY: 6.6%
• Active inventory: 261
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,665 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$886
• Tax from tax record: −$112 /mo · $1,342/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$350
• Net cashflow: $247

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,353

Max offer price $169,000

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $342	-5% $294	+0% $247	+5% $199	+10% $151
Rent	-10% $115	-5% $181	+0% $247	+5% $312	+10% $378
Rate	-1.0pp $332	-0.5pp $289	base $247	+0.5pp $203	+1.0pp $158

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,250
• Closing costs: $5,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
307 S 23rd Ave Hattiesburg, MS	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,595	$1.23	44d	1	0.15mi
107 Kimball Ave Hattiesburg, MS	3.0	1.0	1500	$1,375	$0.92	21d	1	0.37mi
804 Pineview Dr Hattiesburg, MS	4.0	2.0	1880	$3,000	$1.60	21d	1	0.50mi
313 S 11th Ave Hattiesburg, MS	3.0	2.0	1596	$1,850	$1.16	21d	1	0.94mi
2304 W 7th St Hattiesburg, MS	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1175	$1,065	$0.91	21d	1	0.97mi
3414 W 7th St Hattiesburg, MS	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1075	$1,332	$1.24	44d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-04-29
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-13
   listed $169,000 Active
3. 2023-02-23
   soldstatus 384-char remark

   Show marketing remark (384 chars)

   OH THAT SOUTHERN CHARM! A white picket fence welcomes you into the yard, then a wide front porch welcomes you into the home. Updated, with wood flooring throughout, spacious living room, formal dining, modern kitchen with stainless steel appliances, den with access to 2 brick patios and an upstairs screened porch. You will love this quiet, established and very popular neighborhood!

4. 2021-11-22
   soldstatus
5. 2017-03-29
   soldstatus $190,000
6. 2017-01-24
   listed $189,900 384-char remark

   Show marketing remark (384 chars)

   OH THAT SOUTHERN CHARM! A white picket fence welcomes you into the yard, then a wide front porch welcomes you into the home. Updated, with wood flooring throughout, spacious living room, formal dining, modern kitchen with stainless steel appliances, den with access to 2 brick patios and an upstairs screened porch. You will love this quiet, established and very popular neighborhood!

7. 2016-03-16
   listed $199,000
8. 2015-05-29
   listed $275,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,342 · $112/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,342 · $112/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,975
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,467
• − Property taxes: −$1,342
• − Insurance: −$845
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,598
• − Management: −$1,598
• − Depreciation: −$4,916
• Taxable income: $209
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$50
• After-tax cash flow: $2,908/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hattiesburg Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2801800
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $28,058
• Composite: 20.38/100
• National rank: #8595
• State rank: #81 of 130 in MS

Livability — Hattiesburg

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #5
• US rank: #2046

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hattiesburg, MS
• County: Forrest County · 65,413 people
• City population: 87,151
• Metro: Hattiesburg, MS
• Population (ZIP): 42,531
• Household income: $41,127
• Rent vs Own: 56.4% rent · 43.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 2534.0

Population outlook (Forrest County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 79,264 people
• By 2030: 80,822 · +2.0%
• By 2040: 82,979 · +4.7%
• By 2050: 84,324 · +6.4%
• By 2075: 84,942 · +7.2%
• By 2100: 80,616 · +1.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 52% White 40% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Forrest

• 2024 margin: R (+17.9) · D 40.3% · R 58.2% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.4pp toward R · 2008: -13.5pp · 2024: -17.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.9 2020: R+11.1 2016: R+14.2 2012: R+11.7 2008: R+13.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -148.93%
• Current HPI: 137.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.56%
• Metro: Hattiesburg, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-38.5% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Pending — HAAR
• 2026-04-13 Listed $169,000 HAAR
• 2023-02-23 Sold (MLS) — HAAR
• 2021-11-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2017-03-29 Sold (Public Records) $190,000 Public Records
• 2017-01-24 Listed $189,900 HAAR
• 2016-03-16 Listed $199,000 HAAR
• 2015-05-29 Listed $275,000 HAAR

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2021): $1,342 · +3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.