525 San Antonio St · Marlin, TX 76661

$99,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,104 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 181 Days on market

Built 1982 10,498 sqft lot Est $78k · 27% over ↓ 34% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.1/30.0
• Appreciation +7.1/10.0
• 1% rule +6.8/10.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to this charming brick 3-bedroom, 2-bath, residence. Set on a generous lot with mature shade trees, this 1,450 sq ft home offers comfortable small-town living with classic character and solid construction. Inside, you’ll find 2 spacious living areas accented with warm wood finishes and plenty of natural light. The kitchen features custom oak cabinetry, ample counter space, and a gas cooktop. The laundry area is in the garage. Each bedroom provides a cozy retreat, one of the bathrooms features an accessible shower and bathtub combo. The home also includes a two-car manual garage, a large fenced backyard with a storage shed, and a covered patio area. Whether you’re a

Key facts

• Brick residence
• Custom oak cabinetry
• Mature shade trees

Tags

• BRICK RESIDENCE
• MATURE SHADE TREES
• SPACIOUS LIVING AREAS
• CUSTOM OAK CABINETRY
• LARGE FENCED BACKYARD
• COVERED PATIO AREA

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Listing accepts Cash, Conventional, FHA, FHA-203K, USDA, and VA financing
• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Covered garage; Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Not in a municipal utility district
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Residential property
• Construction: Brick construction; Built in 1982
• Exterior features: Lot under 0.5 acre (about 0.24 acres); Subdivision: Rickelman; Accurate GPS directions available

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas cooktop
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms (all on the main level); Primary bedroom on the main level
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Interior features: Two living areas; Dining area; Gas cooktop; Other interior features

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $142 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $88k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 5.7% in Marlin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,146 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime B+, housing B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Marlin ISD (town): math 21% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #779 of 826 in TX (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 84% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Marlin El (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #3,052 of 4,322 statewide, top 74%, 474 students, 99% FRL); Marlin Middle (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,279 of 1,662 statewide, top 78%, 201 students, 100% FRL); Marlin High (math 2% / reading 12%, grade F, #1,612 of 1,632 statewide, top 99%, 243 students, 99% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 84% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 121 active listings in the ZIP; 4 units permitted in Falls County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($688 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (4.2% local appreciation)).
• Falls County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 181 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (34%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wind risk, 76% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $87,560 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 181 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.12%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $78,384
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
813 Live Oak Hwy	0.51mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,116 (+1%)	5mo	$79,000	$71	61
911 Chambers St	0.68mi	3/1.0	1,147 (+4%)	7mo	$39,999	$35	52
812 Capps St	0.68mi	3/1.0	1,109 (+0%)	22mo	$95,000	$86	45
406 Gift Street St #1	0.71mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,209 (+10%)	8mo	$65,000	$54	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.17% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.98×
• Total profit: $27,420
• Equity at exit: $51,443

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.79×
• Total profit: $77,650
• Equity at exit: $84,942

Cash invested: $27,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76661

• Home prices YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 121
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,176 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$522
• Tax from tax record: −$223 /mo · $2,679/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$247
• Net cashflow: $142

Break-even live

Break-even rent $996

Max offer price $99,500

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $198	-5% $170	+0% $142	+5% $114	+10% $86
Rent	-10% $49	-5% $96	+0% $142	+5% $189	+10% $235
Rate	-1.0pp $192	-0.5pp $167	base $142	+0.5pp $116	+1.0pp $90

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,875
• Closing costs: $2,985
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-19
   status Active
2. 2026-04-20
   status Pending
3. 2026-04-08
   price $99,500
4. 2026-03-06
   price $124,500
5. 2025-10-25
   listed $150,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,679 · $223/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,679 · $223/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X · 72% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 76% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,106
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,574
• − Property taxes: −$2,679
• − Insurance: −$498
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,128
• − Management: −$1,128
• − Depreciation: −$2,895
• Taxable income: $205
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$49
• After-tax cash flow: $1,657/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marlin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4829130
• Math proficiency: 21% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 22% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $29,255
• Composite: 17.18/100
• National rank: #9106
• State rank: #779 of 826 in TX

Livability — Marlin

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1146
• US rank: #20161

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Marlin, TX
• Population (ZIP): 7,266

Population outlook (Falls County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,782 people
• By 2030: 15,209 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 14,276 · -9.5%
• By 2050: 13,645 · -13.5%
• By 2075: 13,724 · -13.0%
• By 2100: 13,005 · -17.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 35% Hispanic / Latino 30% White 30% Two or more races 13% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 15%

Political lean MEDSL · Falls

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+44.7) · D 27.3% · R 72.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.0pp toward R · 2008: -19.7pp · 2024: -44.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+44.7 2020: R+37.1 2016: R+33.6 2012: R+24.4 2008: R+19.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.17%
• Current HPI: 126.9217
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-33.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2026-04-20 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $99,500 NTREIS
• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $124,500 NTREIS
• 2025-10-25 Listed $150,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+5.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,679 · +0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.