6104 Pinion Trl · Wylie, TX 75407

$234,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,549 sqft · SingleFamily · 128 Days on market

Built 2025 6,050 sqft lot Est $245k · at est. $42/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.4/30.0
• ARV discount +9.3/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

New homes in Princeton, TX! Welcome to Arbor Trails! This gorgeous new Express homes community is located in Collin County, Branch , Princeton area off CR 437. DR Horton, your new home builder, we offer 3 different plans in Arbor Trails ranging from a 2 2.5 1 1,130 sq ft to a 4 2.5 1 that's 1,549 sq ft.

Key facts

• 6,050 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 2025

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in the Abor Trails North subdivision; Green energy/efficiency features: 12-inch+ attic insulation, energy-efficient windows
• Financial info: No second mortgage; Loan type: Treat as clear
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA; HOA management provided by Neighborhood Managment; HOA fee $250 semi-annually (includes management fees)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 1 covered parking space; Garage dimensions approximately 11 ft wide by 20 ft long
• Security: Carbon monoxide detector(s); Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Underground utilities; Municipal utility district
• Home design: Single-family residence; Two levels; New construction (2025) — incomplete
• Construction: Frame and siding construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Wood fencing; Concrete, curbs, and sidewalks

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Electric oven; Electric range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on level 2 (11 x 12); Bedroom on level 2 (10 x 11); Bedroom on level 2 (10 x 10); Bedroom on level 2 (10 x 10)
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Cable TV available; High-speed internet available; Smart home features (app or pass)
• Laundry & utility: HVAC with thermostat

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $235k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-82 ($-984/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $223k (5.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $201k (14.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $201k (14.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.0% in Wylie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#419 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Princeton ISD (suburban): math 51% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #188 of 826 in TX (top 23%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mayfield El (609 students, 73% FRL) — zoned schools average 73% FRL vs 56% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 1409 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 128 days — a 12% lower offer ($207k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 11176% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Recommended offer $200,505 (14.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 128 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.87%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.50%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $244,742
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6100 Pinion Trl	0.00mi	4/2.5	1,549 (0%)	1mo	$237,490	$153	99
810 Wagtail Dr	0.23mi	4/2.5	1,535 (-1%)	1mo	$238,369	$155	87
6314 Sandpiper Ln	0.27mi	4/2.5	1,535 (-1%)	1mo	$207,999	$136	86
6110 Pinion Trl	0.00mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,419 (-8%)	1mo	$229,990	$162	80
724 Wagtail Dr	0.21mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,360 (-12%)	1mo	$195,999	$144	64
6308 Sandpiper Ln	0.25mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,360 (-12%)	1mo	$217,999	$160	62
6412 Longspur Ln	0.43mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,402 (-10%)	0mo	$222,999	$159	57
416 Sandhill Crane Ln	0.45mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,402 (-10%)	0mo	$221,999	$158	56
6413 Longspur Ln	0.45mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,411 (-9%)	1mo	$215,000	$152	56
6414 Willet Rd	0.48mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,402 (-10%)	1mo	$252,999	$180	54
6508 Glade St	0.48mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,402 (-10%)	1mo	$222,999	$159	54
5430 Longshadow Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,436 (-7%)	1mo	$205,000	$143	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-49,119
• Equity at exit: $35,038

10-year hold

• IRR: -26.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.09×
• Total profit: $-71,976
• Equity at exit: $20,318

Cash invested: $65,797 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75407

• Home prices YoY: -30.3%
• Rents YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 1409
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,005 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$294 /mo · $3,525/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$42
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$421
• Net cashflow: $-82

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,109

Max offer price $223,128

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $80	-5% $-1	+0% $-82	+5% $-163	+10% $-244
Rent	-10% $-240	-5% $-161	+0% $-82	+5% $-3	+10% $76
Rate	-1.0pp $36	-0.5pp $-22	base $-82	+0.5pp $-143	+1.0pp $-205

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,748
• Closing costs: $7,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6102 Pinion Trl , TX	3.0	2.5	1419	$1,600	$1.13	44d	1	0.00mi
6015 Pinion Trl , TX	4.0	2.5	1615	$1,950	$1.21	44d	1	0.01mi
6018 Primrose Rd , TX	3.0–4.0	2.5	1484	$1,875	$1.26	4d	5	0.06mi
623 Linden Rd Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1419	$1,650	$1.16	44d	1	0.09mi
6222 Sandpiper Ln Unit NA Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1400	$1,750	$1.25	8d	1	0.20mi
724 Wagtail Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1360	$1,650	$1.21	0d	1	0.21mi
724 Wagtail Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1360	$1,675	$1.23	4d	1	0.21mi
6225 Kingfisher Way Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1290	$1,625	$1.26	5d	1	0.23mi
721 Wagtail Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	2.5	1535	$1,600	$1.04	25d	1	0.24mi
801 Wagtail Dr , TX	4.0	2.5	1535	$1,975	$1.29	8d	1	0.24mi
803 Wagtail Dr , TX	3.0	2.5	1360	$1,605	$1.18	23d	1	0.25mi
6310 Sandpiper Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	2.5	1549	$2,030	$1.31	12d	1	0.26mi
6311 Whimbrel Way Princeton, TX	4.0	2.5	1535	$1,775	$1.16	0d	1	0.26mi
732 Sandhill Crane Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	2.5	1570	$1,875	$1.19	12d	1	0.26mi
926 Wood Stork Way Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1285	$1,700	$1.32	25d	1	0.27mi
812 Sandhill Crane Ln Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1309	$1,850	$1.41	44d	1	0.27mi
905 Blue Heron Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	2.5	1535	$1,775	$1.16	23d	1	0.28mi
905 Blue Heron Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	2.5	1535	$1,775	$1.16	25d	1	0.28mi
6313 Kingfisher Way Princeton, TX	3.0	3.0	1360	$1,650	$1.21	44d	1	0.29mi
904 Sandhill Crane Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	2.5	1600	$1,750	$1.09	44d	1	0.30mi
914 Sandhill Crane Ln Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1189	$1,775	$1.49	8d	1	0.31mi
919 Blue Heron Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	2.5	1535	$1,700	$1.11	18d	1	0.31mi
919 Blue Heron Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	2.5	1535	$1,775	$1.16	44d	1	0.31mi
911 Sandhill Crane Ln Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1360	$1,575	$1.16	45d	1	0.32mi
935 Sandhill Crane Ln Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1189	$1,999	$1.68	19d	1	0.33mi
600 Sandhill Crane Ln Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$2,100	$1.50	13d	1	0.33mi
6234 Sanderling St Princeton, TX	4.0	2.5	1535	$1,725	$1.12	44d	1	0.33mi
5808 Cherry Hollow Way Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1260	$1,749	$1.39	18d	1	0.44mi
5847 Rock Maple Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1481	$1,785	$1.21	8d	1	0.45mi
5847 Rock Maple Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1481	$1,785	$1.21	18d	1	0.45mi
241 Boxberry Way Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1411	$1,725	$1.22	44d	1	0.46mi
5836 Crystal Water Way Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1481	$1,799	$1.21	6d	1	0.48mi
6505 Glade St Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,800	$1.12	44d	1	0.49mi
318 Mahogany Ln Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1479	$1,800	$1.22	25d	1	0.54mi
416 Finch CIR Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,350	$1.07	44d	1	0.54mi
427 Ashbrook Way Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1482	$1,800	$1.21	5d	1	0.54mi
427 Bower DR Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,850	$1.16	25d	1	0.56mi
411 Ashbrook Way Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1675	$1,995	$1.19	44d	1	0.56mi
403 Ashbrook Way Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1485	$1,849	$1.25	25d	1	0.57mi
403 Ashbrook Way Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1485	$1,749	$1.18	6d	1	0.57mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $42 · $504/yr

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,061
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,163
• − Property taxes: −$3,525
• − Insurance: −$1,175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,925
• − Management: −$1,925
• − HOA: −$504
• − Depreciation: −$6,836
• Taxable loss: −$4,992
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,198
• After-tax cash flow: $214/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Princeton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4835850
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $54,827
• Composite: 42.44/100
• National rank: #3226
• State rank: #188 of 826 in TX

Livability — Wylie

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #419
• US rank: #8623

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Collin County · 1,159,394 people
• City population: 69,325
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,171
• Household income: $100,037
• Rent vs Own: 23.8% rent · 76.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 368.0

Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 30% Black 17% Two or more races 10% Asian 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China, Mexico
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 22% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -103.99%
• Current HPI: 238.9373
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.02%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-99.2% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2026-05-28 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2026-04-02 Rental Removed $1,875 BUILDIUM
• 2026-02-17 Price Changed $1,875 BUILDIUM
• 2025-12-31 Listed for Rent $2,084 BUILDIUM
• 2025-12-04 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-11-06 Price Changed $234,990 NTREIS
• 2025-11-06 Price Changed $229,990 NTREIS
• 2025-10-29 Price Changed $234,990 NTREIS
• 2025-10-23 Price Changed $239,990 NTREIS
• 2025-07-30 Listed $244,990 NTREIS