3027 Truax Rd · Wellsville, NY 14895

$49,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,643 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 38 Days on market

Built 1880 0.41 ac lot $30/sqft · 71% below area ↓ 48% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Calling all investors, flippers, and aspiring DIY homeowners! This fixer-upper in Wellsville is packed with potential and ready for someone with vision to bring it back to life. Whether you’re a first-time handyman looking to test your skills or a seasoned investor searching for your next value-add property, this project home offers the chance to build sweat equity and create something special. With the right updates and renovations, this property could be transformed into a great primary residence, rental, or resale opportunity. Bring your tools, ideas, and imagination — opportunities like this don’t last long in today’s market!

Key facts

• 0.41 acre lot
• Built 1880
• Listed 37 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Water connected (public); Septic tank
• Home design: Two stories; Existing construction; Rectangular lot; Road frontage on a main thoroughfare
• Construction: Vinyl and wood siding; Asphalt roof; Block and stone foundation
• Exterior features: Dirt driveway; Covered porch; Deck

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen; Water heater listed with appliances (see remarks)
• Bedrooms: One bedroom on the main level
• Flooring: Laminate; Tile; Varies
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Gas heating; Gravity/Wall furnace; Heating present (see remarks)
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Separate/formal living room; Convertible bedroom; Bedroom on main level; Partial basement
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $49k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $742 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $49k).
• Recommended offer: $48k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 24.5% vs local median 6.6% in Wellsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#336 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, crime C-, employment C-.
• Wellsville Central School District (town): math 42% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #442 of 590 in NY (top 75%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 52 active listings in the ZIP; 87 units permitted in Allegany County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($339 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Allegany County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1880 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $47,530 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1880 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.79% ✓
• Cap rate: 24.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 64.89%
• DSCR: 3.89
• GRM: 3.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $171,931
• List price: $49,000
• Delta: -71.50%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 14 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3169 Andover Rd	0.43mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,643 (0%)	5mo	$140,000	$85	66
3271 First Ave	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,593 (-3%)	18mo	$130,000	$82	63
12 Trapping Brook Rd	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,702 (+4%)	7mo	$129,000	$76	50
2854 Truax Rd	0.48mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,772 (+8%)	22mo	$165,000	$93	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 76.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.39×
• Total profit: $73,962
• Equity at exit: $44,143

10-year hold

• IRR: 70.5%
• Equity multiple: 14.17×
• Total profit: $180,685
• Equity at exit: $95,196

Cash invested: $13,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14895

• Home prices YoY: 6.9%
• Active inventory: 52
• Price-to-rent: 3.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,368 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$257
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$61 /mo · $735/yr
• Insurance: −$20
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$287
• Net cashflow: $742

Break-even live

Break-even rent $429

Max offer price $49,000

Occupancy floor 41%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,250
• Closing costs: $1,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $49,000 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $49,000 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $49,000 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $49,000 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $49,000 Active 33 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $49,000 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $49,000 Active 29 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $49,000 Active 28 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $49,000 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $49,000 Active 25 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $49,000 Active 23 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $49,000 Active 22 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $49,000 Active 21 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $49,000 Active 20 DOM
15. 2026-05-11
    listed $49,000 Active 661-char remark
16. 2025-04-26
    status Pending
17. 2025-04-25
    historical
18. 2025-04-01
    price $75,000
19. 2025-03-14
    price $84,900
20. 2025-02-07
    listed $94,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥89°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,414
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,745
• − Property taxes: −$735
• − Insurance: −$245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,313
• − Management: −$1,313
• − Depreciation: −$1,425
• Taxable income: $8,637
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,073
• After-tax cash flow: $6,830/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wellsville Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3630480
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $39,964
• Composite: 39.71/100
• National rank: #3903
• State rank: #442 of 590 in NY

Livability — Wellsville

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #336
• US rank: #5669

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,117

Population outlook (Allegany County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 45,362 people
• By 2030: 43,078 · -5.0%
• By 2040: 38,031 · -16.2%
• By 2050: 33,634 · -25.9%
• By 2075: 25,285 · -44.3%
• By 2100: 18,902 · -58.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Allegany

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.2) · D 28.4% · R 71.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.5pp toward R · 2008: -21.7pp · 2024: -43.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.2 2020: R+38.9 2016: R+42.3 2012: R+25.3 2008: R+21.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 18.16%
• Current HPI: 280.3569
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-48.4% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Listed $49,000 UNYREIS
• 2025-04-26 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2025-04-25 Listing Removed — UNYREIS
• 2025-04-01 Price Changed $75,000 UNYREIS
• 2025-03-14 Price Changed $84,900 UNYREIS
• 2025-02-07 Listed $94,900 UNYREIS

Property tax history

+8.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,016 · +143.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.