624 Forest Park Dr · Newburgh, IN 47630

$274,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,288 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 84 Days on market

Built 1974 0.41 ac lot $120/sqft · 8% below area Est $299k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.7/30.0
• ARV discount +11.2/15.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Rent growth +4.7/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Enjoy luxury and comfort in this beautifully updated home, perfectly located near schools and shops. Home Highlights: Brand-new flooring, fresh paint, and updated plumbing. • Bright & Airy: Featuring new Patio doors and a stunning Sunroom for year-round relaxation. • Cozy Living: Two spacious living areas, including a lower-level retreat with a gas fireplace. • Private Suite: Owner’s sanctuary with a private full bath. Outdoor Paradise: • Escape at Home: Private backyard featuring a cabana and hot tub—perfect for entertaining or unwinding.

Key facts

• 0.41 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1974

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $274k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $170 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $239k (12.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $239k (12.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 3.9% in Newburgh — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#21 in IN, #1,922 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Warrick County School Corporation (suburban): math 54% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #24 of 301 in IN (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.7%/yr); 383 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 249 units permitted in Warrick County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($94k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Warrick County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 84 days — a 6% lower offer ($258k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $151k; list at $274k implies a 81% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $239,160 (12.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 84 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.65%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $298,662
• List price: $274,000
• Delta: -8.26%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5944 Riceland Dr	0.11mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,263 (-1%)	5mo	$307,000	$136	82
7322 Lakevale Dr	0.37mi	3/2.0	2,232 (-2%)	7mo	$365,000	$164	71
623 Forest Park Dr	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,974 (-14%)	10mo	$290,000	$147	65
6888 Cottage Ln	0.25mi	3/2.0	2,001 (-12%)	1mo	$389,900	$195	65
5455 E Timberwood Dr	0.51mi	3/2.5	2,197 (-4%)	7mo	$277,500	$126	64
630 Bartlett Dr	0.42mi	3/1.5	2,132 (-7%)	8mo	$245,000	$115	58
7711 Woodland Dr	0.47mi	3/2.0	2,035 (-11%)	1mo	$287,500	$141	57
5497 E Sherwood Dr	0.54mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,115 (-8%)	1mo	$305,000	$144	54
8122 Roberts Ridge Rd	0.69mi	3/2.0	2,443 (+7%)	8mo	$358,900	$147	48
215 Hillcrest Dr	0.53mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,052 (-10%)	5mo	$150,000	$73	47
5455 Kenwood Cir	0.62mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,596 (+14%)	1mo	$345,000	$133	43
5366 Jeffries Ln	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,950 (-15%)	7mo	$250,000	$128	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-21,034
• Equity at exit: $40,854

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.69×
• Total profit: $52,827
• Equity at exit: $23,691

Cash invested: $76,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Indiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day pay-or-quit; landlord-favorable; preempted.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 47630

• Rents YoY: 8.7%
• Active inventory: 383
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,392 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,437
• Tax from tax record: −$169 /mo · $2,025/yr
• Insurance: −$114
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$502
• Net cashflow: $170

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,177

Max offer price $274,000

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,500
• Closing costs: $8,220
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5200 E Timberwood Dr Newburgh, IN	4.0	3.0	1643	$2,200	$1.34	13d	1	0.76mi
5041 E Sherwood Dr Newburgh, IN	3.0	2.5	2077	$2,350	$1.13	13d	1	0.96mi
603 W Water St Newburgh, IN	3.0	2.0	2810	$3,700	$1.32	43d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $274,000 Active 84 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $274,000 Active 83 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $274,000 Active 82 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $274,000 Active 81 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $274,000 Active 79 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $274,000 Active 78 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $274,000 Active 76 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $274,000 Active 75 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $274,000 Active 74 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $274,000 Active 73 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $274,000 Active 68 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    pricedays on market $274,000 Active 67 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $279,000 Active 66 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $279,000 Active 65 DOM
15. 2026-04-13
    price $279,000 583-char remark

    Show marketing remark (583 chars)

    Enjoy luxury and comfort in this beautifully updated home, perfectly located near schools and shops. Home Highlights: Brand-new flooring, fresh paint, and updated plumbing. • Bright & Airy: Featuring new Patio doors and a stunning Sunroom for year-round relaxation. • Cozy Living: Two spacious living areas, including a lower-level retreat with a gas fireplace. • Private Suite: Owner’s sanctuary with a private full bath. Outdoor Paradise: • Escape at Home: Private backyard featuring a cabana and hot tub—perfect for entertaining or unwinding.

16. 2026-03-31
    price $289,000 583-char remark

    Show marketing remark (583 chars)

    Enjoy luxury and comfort in this beautifully updated home, perfectly located near schools and shops. Home Highlights: Brand-new flooring, fresh paint, and updated plumbing. • Bright & Airy: Featuring new Patio doors and a stunning Sunroom for year-round relaxation. • Cozy Living: Two spacious living areas, including a lower-level retreat with a gas fireplace. • Private Suite: Owner’s sanctuary with a private full bath. Outdoor Paradise: • Escape at Home: Private backyard featuring a cabana and hot tub—perfect for entertaining or unwinding.

17. 2026-03-25
    listed $294,000 Active 583-char remark

    Show marketing remark (583 chars)

    Enjoy luxury and comfort in this beautifully updated home, perfectly located near schools and shops. Home Highlights: Brand-new flooring, fresh paint, and updated plumbing. • Bright & Airy: Featuring new Patio doors and a stunning Sunroom for year-round relaxation. • Cozy Living: Two spacious living areas, including a lower-level retreat with a gas fireplace. • Private Suite: Owner’s sanctuary with a private full bath. Outdoor Paradise: • Escape at Home: Private backyard featuring a cabana and hot tub—perfect for entertaining or unwinding.

18. 2025-09-15
    price $274,900
19. 2025-08-22
    price $279,000
20. 2025-07-18
    price $284,500
21. 2025-07-10
    listed $298,500 Active
22. 2024-04-26
    soldstatus $151,070
23. 2015-05-05
    soldstatus $145,000
24. 2015-01-06
    listed $145,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,025 · $169/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,177 · $181/mo
• Expected delta: +$152/yr (+$13/mo · 7.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,699
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,348
• − Property taxes: −$2,025
• − Insurance: −$1,370
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,296
• − Management: −$2,296
• − Depreciation: −$7,971
• Taxable loss: −$2,607
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$626
• After-tax cash flow: $2,660/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Warrick County School Corporation
• NCES district ID: 1812390
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $62,801
• Composite: 49.38/100
• National rank: #2014
• State rank: #24 of 301 in IN

Livability — Newburgh

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #21
• US rank: #1922

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Newburgh, IN
• County: Warrick County · 39,818 people
• City population: 39,818
• Metro: Evansville, IN-KY
• Population (ZIP): 39,818
• Household income: $94,162
• Rent vs Own: 19.7% rent · 80.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 770.0

Population outlook (Warrick County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 66,569 people
• By 2030: 68,404 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 71,131 · +6.9%
• By 2050: 72,743 · +9.3%
• By 2075: 76,088 · +14.3%
• By 2100: 72,261 · +8.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 5% Black 3% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Warrick

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+30.2) · D 34.1% · R 64.3% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.4pp toward R · 2008: -12.8pp · 2024: -30.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+30.2 2020: R+27.8 2016: R+33.9 2012: R+26.6 2008: R+12.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -187.44%
• Current HPI: 185.7643
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.69%
• Metro: Evansville, IN-KY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• F500 in state: 18

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$37B
▸Healthcare	1	$177B
▸Pharmaceuticals	1	$45B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$18B
▸Agriculture	1	$17B
▸Packaging	1	$12B

Price history

+92.4% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $279,000 IRMLS
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $289,000 IRMLS
• 2026-03-25 Listed $294,000 IRMLS
• 2025-09-15 Price Changed $274,900 IRMLS
• 2025-08-22 Price Changed $279,000 IRMLS
• 2025-07-18 Price Changed $284,500 IRMLS
• 2025-07-10 Listed $298,500 IRMLS
• 2024-04-26 Sold (Public Records) $151,070 Public Records
• 2015-05-05 Sold (MLS) $145,000 IRMLS
• 2015-01-06 Listed $145,000 IRMLS

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2024): $2,025 · +6.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.