613 4th St NE · Fort Meade, FL 33841

$250,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,488 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 37 Days on market

Built 1982 0.28 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0
• 1% rule +1.2/10.0

Listing remarks

Come see the updated residence at 613 4th St NE, recently improved with a new roof and fresh exterior paint. Inside, fresh interior paint and partial flooring replacement enhance the living spaces. The kitchen features stainless steel appliances and an accent backsplash. The primary bedroom contains a walk-in closet, while the primary bathroom includes double sinks. An outdoor patio complements the fenced-in backyard. This home perfectly blends modern updates with practical comfort. Included 100-Day Home Warranty with buyer activation

Key facts

• Fresh interior paint
• Fresh exterior paint
• New roof

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• FRESH EXTERIOR PAINT
• FRESH INTERIOR PAINT
• PARTIAL FLOORING REPLACEMENT
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• ACCENT BACKSPLASH

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoning: R-1B
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: No association fees; No community features

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Security: Owned security system
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available; Water available
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Faces south
• Construction: Frame construction with wood siding; Tile roof; Slab foundation; Built as a residential single family home
• Exterior features: Other exterior features; Other fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range hood
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Owned security system; Range hood
• Laundry & utility: Laundry closet; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-278 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $201k (19.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $155k (37.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $155k (37.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#779 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 119 active listings in the ZIP; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $25k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $217k; 15% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $155,257 (37.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.62% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.96%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.77%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 13.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.69×
• Total profit: $118,310
• Equity at exit: $225,220

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.9%
• Equity multiple: 6.17×
• Total profit: $362,124
• Equity at exit: $485,695

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33841

• Home prices YoY: 7.7%
• Active inventory: 119
• Price-to-rent: 13.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,553 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$90 /mo · $1,077/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$326
• Net cashflow: $-278

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,905

Max offer price $200,816

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-137	-5% $-208	+0% $-278	+5% $-349	+10% $-420
Rent	-10% $-401	-5% $-340	+0% $-278	+5% $-217	+10% $-156
Rate	-1.0pp $-153	-0.5pp $-215	base $-278	+0.5pp $-343	+1.0pp $-409

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $250,000 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $250,000 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $250,000 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $250,000 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $250,000 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $250,000 Active 29 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $250,000 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $250,000 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $250,000 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $250,000 Active 23 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $250,000 Active 22 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $250,000 Active 21 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $250,000 Active 20 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $250,000 Active 19 DOM
15. 2026-05-12
    listed $250,000 Active
16. 2026-04-27
    soldstatus $217,200
17. 2026-03-20
    price $260,000
18. 2026-03-10
    listed $275,000 Active
19. 2025-06-27
    historical
20. 2025-04-27
    price $252,000
21. 2025-04-08
    price $255,000
22. 2025-03-21
    price $262,500
23. 2025-03-14
    price $264,990
24. 2025-02-21
    price $265,000
25. 2025-02-11
    price $267,900
26. 2025-02-05
    price $271,000
27. 2025-02-01
    price $272,000
28. 2025-01-27
    listed $272,500 Active
29. 2011-03-15
    soldstatus $79,000
30. 2011-03-09
    soldstatus $79,000
31. 2010-10-18
    listed $84,900
32. 1986-10-01
    soldstatus $65,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,077 · $90/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,075 · $173/mo
• Expected delta: +$998/yr (+$83/mo · 92.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,631
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$1,077
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,490
• − Management: −$1,490
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$7,954
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,909
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,432/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Fort Meade

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #779
• US rank: #17625

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fort Meade, FL
• Population (ZIP): 8,268

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 13% Black 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 32% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 30%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 26.92%
• Current HPI: 376.8183
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+284.6% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $250,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-27 Sold (Public Records) $217,200 Public Records
• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $260,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-10 Listed $275,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-27 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-27 Price Changed $252,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-08 Price Changed $255,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-21 Price Changed $262,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-14 Price Changed $264,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-21 Price Changed $265,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-11 Price Changed $267,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-05 Price Changed $271,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-01 Price Changed $272,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-27 Listed $272,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-03-15 Sold (Public Records) $79,000 Public Records
• 2011-03-09 Sold (MLS) $79,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-10-18 Listed $84,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1986-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,077 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.