803 Cheyenne St · Midland, TX 79706

$284,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,497 sqft · SingleFamily · 58 Days on market

Built 2016 5,576 sqft lot $25/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home in a desirable neighborhood at a fantastic price! This inviting home features high ceilings and an open-concept living and kitchen area, perfect for entertaining or everyday living. Conveniently located with quick access to get around all of Midland, this home offers both comfort and value in a sought-after location. Don't miss this great opportunity

Key facts

• 5,576 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2016

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with an annual fee of $300 (about $25/month)

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage; Garage door opener
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Single story
• Construction: Brick veneer construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built on a 0.128-acre lot
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Wood fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Electric Range
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Pantry
• Laundry & utility: Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $285k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $361 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $285k).
• Recommended offer: $276k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 4.7% in Midland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#57 in TX, #2,192 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, commute D+, amenities D.
• Midland ISD (urban): math 34% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #477 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sam Houston Collegiate Preparatory El (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,545 of 4,322 statewide, top 38%, 469 students, 64% FRL, charter); Goddard J H (math 23% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,156 of 1,662 statewide, top 71%, 1,024 students, 58% FRL, charter); Midland H S (math 37% / reading 7%, grade F, #1,366 of 1,632 statewide, top 84%, 2,492 students, 44% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 383 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,504 units permitted in Midland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($108k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Midland County population projected at +83% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($276k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $276,353 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.42%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.75% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-23,899
• Equity at exit: $42,480

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.07×
• Total profit: $5,899
• Equity at exit: $24,633

Cash invested: $79,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79706

• Rents YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 383
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,922 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,494
• Tax from tax record: −$310 /mo · $3,723/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$25
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$614
• Net cashflow: $361

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,466

Max offer price $284,900

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $522	-5% $441	+0% $361	+5% $280	+10% $199
Rent	-10% $130	-5% $245	+0% $361	+5% $476	+10% $591
Rate	-1.0pp $504	-0.5pp $433	base $361	+0.5pp $287	+1.0pp $212

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,225
• Closing costs: $8,547
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1320 N Fairgrounds Rd #706 Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1360	$3,500	$2.57	15d	1	0.76mi
1320 N Fairgrounds Rd Midland, TX	2.0	2.0	1152	$2,800	$2.43	15d	1	0.76mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $25 · $300/yr

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-10
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-23
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-04-14
   price $284,900
4. 2026-03-13
   listed $290,000 Active
5. 2023-10-14
   historical $2,400
6. 2023-09-12
   listed $2,400

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,723 · $310/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,214 · $434/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,491/yr (+$124/mo · 40.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 47% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,068
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,959
• − Property taxes: −$3,723
• − Insurance: −$1,424
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,805
• − Management: −$2,805
• − HOA: −$300
• − Depreciation: −$8,288
• Taxable loss: −$237
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$57
• After-tax cash flow: $4,385/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Midland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830570
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $63,457
• Composite: 31.63/100
• National rank: #5938
• State rank: #477 of 826 in TX

Livability — Midland

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #57
• US rank: #2192

Category grades

Amenities D Commute D+ Cost of living A Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Midland, TX
• County: Midland County · 168,494 people
• City population: 168,494
• Metro: Midland, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,281
• Household income: $108,059
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 303.0

Population outlook (Midland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 220,895 people
• By 2030: 253,667 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 325,498 · +47.4%
• By 2050: 404,168 · +83.0%
• By 2075: 609,802 · +176.1%
• By 2100: 760,172 · +244.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 48% White 44% Two or more races 13% Black 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 43% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Lithuanian 1% Swedish 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 30%

Political lean MEDSL · Midland

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.5) · D 19.3% · R 79.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -57.3pp · 2024: -60.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.5 2020: R+56.6 2016: R+55.2 2012: R+61.5 2008: R+57.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -173.42%
• Current HPI: 212.6467
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.75%
• Metro: Midland, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+11770.8% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-10 Pending — PBBOR
• 2026-04-23 Contingent — PBBOR
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $284,900 PBBOR
• 2026-03-13 Listed $290,000 PBBOR
• 2023-10-14 Rental Removed $2,400 TURBOTENANT
• 2023-09-12 Listed for Rent $2,400 TURBOTENANT

Property tax history

+42.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,723 · -3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.