1650 S Arizona Ave #281 · Chandler, AZ 85286

$104,980

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,219 sqft · Manufactured · 37 Days on market

Built 2015 Fair condition Est $110k · at est. ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.4/15.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 5 parking spots
• Community pool
• Built 2015

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Land lease community ($950 monthly land lease); Association covers sewer, street maintenance, trash, and water; Community amenities: pool, community spa, playground, biking/walking paths, near bus stop

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered parking spaces; 3 open parking spaces; 2 carport spaces
• Utilities: City water; Public sewer (connected)
• Home design: Manufactured/mobile home; Leasehold ownership; Asphalt road access
• Construction: Painted exterior; Other construction materials; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Private spa; Wood fencing; Gravel/stone front yard; Synthetic grass in back yard; Storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwave; Non-laminate counters; Gas range stub; Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Disposal
• Bedrooms: Up to 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air; Ceiling fans; Natural gas heating; Floor furnace; Wall furnace
• Interior features: High-speed internet; Double vanity; Eat-in kitchen; Breakfast bar; No interior steps; Vaulted ceilings; Pantry; 3/4 bath in master bedroom; Dual-pane windows with vinyl frames; Accessible approach with ramp; Bath lever faucets; Storage
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry with washer/dryer hookup only

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $105k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $105k).
• Recommended offer: $102k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.5% vs local median 3.3% in Chandler — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#9 in AZ, #2,508 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: health & safety D, cost of living D-.
• Chandler Unified District #80 (4242) (suburban): math 49% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #31 of 249 in AZ (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: T. Dale Hancock Elementary School (math 47% / reading 50%, grade D, #296 of 1,109 statewide, top 27%, 685 students, 36% FRL); Bogle Junior High School (math 43% / reading 52%, grade C-, #36 of 218 statewide, top 18%, 1,151 students, 26% FRL); Hamilton High School (math 52% / reading 49%, grade D+, #36 of 381 statewide, top 9%, 3,850 students, 18% FRL) — zoned schools at 27% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.6%/yr); 177 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $726 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($102k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $101,830 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 43.69%
• DSCR: 2.94
• GRM: 3.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $109,710
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1650 S Arizona Ave #352	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-2%)	10mo	$117,000	$98	84
1650 S Arizona Ave #96	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,248 (+2%)	22mo	$121,000	$97	72
1650 S Arizona Ave #126	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,120 (-8%)	8mo	$69,000	$62	70
1650 S Arizona Ave #336	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,300 (+7%)	13mo	$117,500	$90	69
1650 S Arizona Ave #23	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,304 (+7%)	19mo	$115,000	$88	66
1650 S Arizona Ave #228	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,056 (-13%)	13mo	$83,000	$79	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 37.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.51×
• Total profit: $44,517
• Equity at exit: $15,653

10-year hold

• IRR: 42.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.43×
• Total profit: $100,922
• Equity at exit: $9,077

Cash invested: $29,394 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85286

• Home prices YoY: -24.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.6%
• Active inventory: 177
• Price-to-rent: 3.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,273 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$551
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$131 /mo · $1,575/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$477
• Net cashflow: $1,070

Break-even live

Break-even rent $918

Max offer price $104,980

Occupancy floor 48%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,143	-5% $1,106	+0% $1,070	+5% $1,034	+10% $998
Rent	-10% $891	-5% $980	+0% $1,070	+5% $1,160	+10% $1,250
Rate	-1.0pp $1,123	-0.5pp $1,097	base $1,070	+0.5pp $1,043	+1.0pp $1,015

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,245
• Closing costs: $3,149
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
200 W Germann Rd Chandler, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1081	$2,520	$2.33	0d	38	0.25mi
2150 S Arizona Ave Chandler, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	956	$2,169	$2.27	0d	16	0.42mi
575 W Pecos Rd Chandler, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	928	$2,009	$2.16	0d	19	0.52mi
800 W Willis Rd Chandler, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1036	$2,407	$2.32	0d	17	0.59mi
875 W Pecos Rd Chandler, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	912	$1,905	$2.09	0d	24	0.73mi
726 S Nebraska St #95 Chandler, AZ	3.0	2.0	1188	$1,900	$1.60	45d	1	0.89mi
1106 S Fresno Ct Chandler, AZ	3.0	2.0	1421	$2,195	$1.54	25d	1	0.90mi
726 S Nebraska St #159 Chandler, AZ	3.0	2.0	1188	$1,699	$1.43	23d	1	0.90mi
727 S Hartford St #189 Chandler, AZ	3.0	2.0	1060	$1,695	$1.60	45d	1	0.96mi
727 S Hartford St Chandler, AZ	3.0	2.0	1060	$1,495	$1.41	12d	1	0.96mi
727 S Hartford St #189 Chandler, AZ	3.0	2.0	1060	$1,645	$1.55	12d	1	0.96mi
727 S Hartford St #182 Chandler, AZ	3.0	2.0	1060	$1,495	$1.41	16d	1	0.96mi
1112 S Bogle Ct Chandler, AZ	2.0	2.0	1363	$1,858	$1.36	25d	1	0.98mi
1112 S Bogle Ct Chandler, AZ	2.0	2.0	1363	$1,800	$1.32	23d	1	0.98mi
1314 W Weatherby Way Chandler, AZ	2.0	2.5	1307	$1,950	$1.49	45d	1	1.04mi
1315 W Musket Way Chandler, AZ	3.0	2.0	1454	$2,250	$1.55	45d	1	1.06mi
1175 W Pecos Rd Chandler, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	971	$2,169	$2.23	0d	16	1.07mi
901 S Alma School Rd Chandler, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	939	$2,480	$2.64	0d	19	1.09mi
2777 S Arizona Ave Chandler, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1037	$1,839	$1.77	3d	13	1.10mi
1387 W Marlin Dr Chandler, AZ	2.0	2.5	1307	$2,245	$1.72	16d	1	1.14mi
1387 W Marlin Dr Chandler, AZ	2.0	2.5	1307	$2,245	$1.72	0d	1	1.14mi
2450 S Apache Dr Chandler, AZ	3.0	2.0	1317	$2,150	$1.63	0d	1	1.20mi
1203 W Kesler Ln Chandler, AZ	3.0	2.0	1315	$2,175	$1.65	6d	1	1.20mi
250 W Queen Creek Rd Chandler, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1732	$2,499	$1.44	0d	2	1.23mi
155 E Frye Rd Chandler, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1213	$3,136	$2.59	2d	25	1.27mi
800 W Queen Creek Rd Chandler, AZ	2.0	2.0	1262	$1,949	$1.54	21d	1	1.30mi
800 W Queen Creek Rd Chandler, AZ	2.0	2.0	1206	$1,859	$1.54	4d	1	1.30mi
800 W Queen Creek Rd Chandler, AZ	2.0	2.0	1206	$1,964	$1.63	45d	1	1.30mi
800 W Queen Creek Rd Chandler, AZ	3.0	2.0	1254	$2,099	$1.67	25d	1	1.30mi
902 S Ithica St Chandler, AZ	3.0	2.0	1441	$2,126	$1.48	25d	1	1.31mi
812 E Morelos St Chandler, AZ	3.0	2.0	1286	$2,201	$1.71	45d	1	1.36mi
1750 S Senate St Chandler, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	1239	$2,714	$2.19	0d	24	1.39mi
857 E Saragosa St Chandler, AZ	3.0	2.0	1102	$2,199	$2.00	45d	1	1.42mi
857 E Saragosa St Chandler, AZ	3.0	2.0	1102	$2,149	$1.95	16d	1	1.42mi
2177 S McQueen Rd Chandler, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1192	$2,618	$2.20	3d	13	1.43mi
878 E Morelos St Chandler, AZ	3.0	2.0	1488	$2,200	$1.48	23d	1	1.43mi
705 W Queen Creek Rd Chandler, AZ	2.0	2.0	1376	$3,450	$2.51	25d	2	1.44mi
705 W Queen Creek Rd Chandler, AZ	2.0	2.0	1376	$3,100	$2.25	14d	4	1.44mi
3100 S Arizona Ave Chandler, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1082	$2,872	$2.65	0d	66	1.44mi
2759 S Jackrabbit Dr Chandler, AZ	2.0	2.5	1273	$3,050	$2.40	45d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   pricedays on market $104,980 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $109,980 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $109,980 Active 33 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $109,980 Active 32 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $109,980 Active 31 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $109,980 Active 29 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $109,980 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $109,980 Active 25 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $109,980 Active 24 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $109,980 Active 23 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $109,980 Active 20 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $109,980 Active 19 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $109,980 Active 18 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $109,980 Active 17 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $109,980 Active 16 DOM
16. 2026-05-15
    listed $109,980 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,275
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,881
• − Property taxes: −$1,575
• − Insurance: −$525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,182
• − Management: −$2,182
• − Depreciation: −$3,054
• Taxable income: $11,877
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,850
• After-tax cash flow: $9,991/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This manufactured home requires moderate repairs to the exterior siding and interior walls, but is otherwise in fair condition. Simple updates like painting and decluttering can significantly enhance its value.

Repairs flagged

• Moderate exterior siding — Weathered and discolored
• Minor interior walls — Some paint wear

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both repair and paint exterior siding — Fresh siding improves curb appeal and home value
• Both organize countertops and bathrooms — A clutter-free space is more appealing to potential buyers and renters

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
exterior siding · Weathered and discolored	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
interior walls · Some paint wear	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$3,500–18,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both repair and paint exterior siding — Fresh siding improves curb appeal and home value ↑
• Both organize countertops and bathrooms — A clutter-free space is more appealing to potential buyers and renters ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chandler Unified District #80 (4242)
• NCES district ID: 0401870
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $74,048
• Composite: 47.54/100
• National rank: #2268
• State rank: #31 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Chandler

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #9
• US rank: #2508

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute B Cost of living D- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Chandler, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 299,016
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 50,621
• Household income: $121,758
• Rent vs Own: 34.6% rent · 65.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1285.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Hispanic / Latino 19% Asian 16% Two or more races 14% Black 5% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Asian/Pacific 5% Chinese 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -101.85%
• Current HPI: 309.3228
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.64%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-4.5% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-19 Price Changed $104,980 ARMLS
• 2026-05-15 Listed $109,980 ARMLS