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1650 S Arizona Ave #281
B Composite 74.4
Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

  • Cash flow +30.0/30.0
  • ARV discount +15.0/15.0
  • 1% rule +10.0/10.0
  • DSCR +10.0/10.0
  • Schools +4.9/10.0
  • Livability +3.9/5.0
  • Appreciation +2.5/10.0
  • Rent growth +2.3/5.0
  • Condition / age +2.2/5.0
  • Manufactured-home adj. -6.5

$89,980

1650 S Arizona Ave #281 · Chandler, AZ 85286
3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,219 sqft · Manufactured · 16 Days on market
Manufactured home Built 2015 Fair condition 1,219 sqft lot $74/sqft · 35% below area Est $139k · 35% under ↓ 18% since listing

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

Welcome home to unit #281 at 1650 S Arizona Ave, a modern manufactured residence built in 2015 and offering 1,219 square feet of beautifully designed interior living space in the heart of Chandler. Featuring 3 comfortable bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, this home seamlessly combines functional layout with stylish finishings, making it an ideal choice for low-maintenance desert living. Step inside to an inviting open layout with vaulted ceilings, modern vinyl flooring, and clean, bright finishes throughout.

Key facts

  • Open layout
  • Vaulted ceilings
  • Breakfast bar

Tags

MODERN MANUFACTURED RESIDENCEOPEN LAYOUTVAULTED CEILINGSDURABLE QUARTZ COUNTERTOPSBREAKFAST BARFULLY FENCED BACKYARD

Neighborhood map

Property Rental comp Retail Costco Walmart Transit Schools Stadiums Fortune 500 · Circle radius: 6.0 mi
Loading POIs…

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

  • This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $90k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

  • At list price, monthly cash flow is $702 ($8k/yr) — positive.
  • The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
  • Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $90k).
  • Recommended offer: $89k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
  • Cap rate 15.7% vs local median 3.3% in Chandler — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

  • Location reads 78/100 on livability (#9 in AZ, #2,508 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: health & safety D, cost of living D-.
  • Chandler Unified District #80 (4242) (suburban): math 49% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #31 of 249 in AZ (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
  • Zoned schools: T. Dale Hancock Elementary School (math 47% / reading 50%, grade D, #296 of 1,109 statewide, top 27%, 685 students, 36% FRL); Bogle Junior High School (math 43% / reading 52%, grade C-, #36 of 218 statewide, top 18%, 1,151 students, 26% FRL); Hamilton High School (math 52% / reading 49%, grade D+, #36 of 381 statewide, top 9%, 3,850 students, 18% FRL) — zoned schools at 27% FRL track the district average.
  • Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.6%/yr); 334 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 73d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 58% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
  • This rent is only 17% of the median local income ($122k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

  • Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
  • Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
  • At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

  • It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($89k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
  • 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

  • Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Recommended offer $88,630 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

  1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
  2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
  3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
  4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
  5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
  6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule
1.86% ✓
Cap rate
15.66%
Cash-on-cash
33.44%
DSCR
2.49
GRM
4.5

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp)
$139,000
List price
$89,980
Delta
-35.27%
Verdict
UNDERPRICED
Comps
1 within 2.0 mi
Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi
Address Dist Beds/Ba Sqft Sold Price $/sf Match
1650 S Arizona Ave #352 0.13mi 3/2.0 1,200 (-2%) 14mo $117,000 $98 80
1650 S Arizona Ave #126 0.21mi 3/2.0 1,120 (-8%) 12mo $69,000 $62 66
1650 S Arizona Ave #336 0.18mi 3/2.0 1,300 (+7%) 18mo $117,500 $90 66
1650 S Arizona Ave #23 0.13mi 3/2.0 1,304 (+7%) 24mo $115,000 $88 63
1650 S Arizona Ave #228 0.21mi 3/2.0 1,056 (-13%) 17mo $83,000 $79 53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold
IRR
25.3%
Equity multiple
2.00×
Total profit
$25,248
Equity at exit
$13,416
10-year hold
IRR
31.1%
Equity multiple
3.41×
Total profit
$60,685
Equity at exit
$7,780

Cash invested: $25,194 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE)
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Arizona
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
County
— inherits STATE
City
— inherits STATE
5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now
9 active
Median asking
$89,900 ($84/sqft)
Median days on market
21 d
This list price
56% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking
+35.4% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 85286

Home prices YoY
-24.8%
Rents YoY
-0.6%
Active inventory
334
Price-to-rent
4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent
$1,676 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I)
−$472
Tax est. 1.5%
−$112 /mo · $1,350/yr
Insurance
−$37
HOA
−$0
Lot rent leased land?
−$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
−$352
Net cashflow
$702

Break-even live

Break-even rent $787
Max offer price $89,980
Occupancy floor 53%

Sensitivity live

Price -10% $764 -5% $733 +0% $702 +5% $671 +10% $640
Rent -10% $570 -5% $636 +0% $702 +5% $768 +10% $834
Rate -1.0pp $747 -0.5pp $725 base $702 +0.5pp $679 +1.0pp $655

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment
$22,495
Closing costs
$2,699
Reserves months
—
Total cash needed
—

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
—
Monthly P&I
—
Monthly cashflow
—
DSCR
—
Eligible?
—

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
—
Monthly P&I
—
Monthly cashflow
—
DSCR
—
Eligible?
—

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested
—
Monthly P&I
—
Monthly cashflow
—
DSCR
—
Eligible?
—

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 40 comps

AddressBedsBaths SqftRent$/sqft DOM Units Dist
200 W Germann Rd Chandler, AZ 1.0–3.0 1.0–2.0 1081 $2,187 $2.02 0d 17 0.25mi
1900 S Arizona Ave Chandler, AZ 2.0–3.0 2.0 1182 $2,478 $2.10 0d 3 0.28mi
2150 S Arizona Ave Chandler, AZ 2.0–3.0 2.0 1149 $1,988 $1.73 0d 10 0.42mi
800 W Willis Rd Chandler, AZ 1.0–3.0 1.0–2.0 1036 $2,609 $2.52 0d 6 0.49mi
575 W Pecos Rd Chandler, AZ 1.0–3.0 1.0–2.0 928 $2,314 $2.49 0d 18 0.52mi
875 W Pecos Rd Chandler, AZ 1.0–2.0 1.0–2.0 996 $1,816 $1.82 0d 8 0.78mi
875 S Nebraska St Chandler, AZ 2.0 2.0 837 $1,350 $1.61 0d 1 0.83mi
875 S Nebraska St Chandler, AZ 2.0 2.0 837 $1,450 $1.73 87d 1 0.83mi
1148 S Fargo Ct Chandler, AZ 3.0 2.0 1162 $2,000 $1.72 20d 1 0.84mi
621 S California St Unit A Chandler, AZ 2.0 1.0 756 $1,225 $1.62 83d 1 0.84mi
621 S California St Unit A Chandler, AZ 2.0 1.0 756 $1,175 $1.55 19d 1 0.84mi
726 S Nebraska St #95 Chandler, AZ 3.0 2.0 1188 $1,900 $1.60 184d 1 0.89mi
1106 S Fresno Ct Chandler, AZ 3.0 2.0 1421 $2,195 $1.54 165d 1 0.90mi
726 S Nebraska St #159 Chandler, AZ 3.0 2.0 1188 $1,699 $1.43 162d 1 0.90mi
1324 S Mosley Ct Chandler, AZ 3.0 2.0 1421 $2,195 $1.54 72d 1 0.94mi
727 S Hartford St #189 Chandler, AZ 3.0 2.0 1060 $1,575 $1.49 121d 1 0.96mi
727 S Hartford St Chandler, AZ 3.0 2.0 1060 $1,495 $1.41 151d 1 0.96mi
727 S Hartford St #182 Chandler, AZ 3.0 2.0 1060 $1,495 $1.41 155d 1 0.96mi
727 S Hartford St #189 Chandler, AZ 3.0 2.0 1060 $1,695 $1.60 184d 1 0.96mi
1112 S Bogle Ct Chandler, AZ 2.0 2.0 1363 $1,858 $1.36 165d 1 0.98mi
1112 S Bogle Ct Chandler, AZ 2.0 2.0 1363 $1,800 $1.32 162d 1 0.98mi
773 E Wildhorse Dr Chandler, AZ 3.0 2.0 1241 $2,270 $1.83 12d 1 0.99mi
773 E Wildhorse Dr Chandler, AZ 3.0 2.0 1241 $2,130 $1.72 0d 1 0.99mi
1231 S Bridger Dr Chandler, AZ 3.0 2.0 1336 $2,195 $1.64 28d 1 1.01mi
1184 W Flamingo Ct Chandler, AZ 3.0 2.0 1385 $2,150 $1.55 34d 1 1.01mi
1314 W Weatherby Way Chandler, AZ 2.0 2.5 1307 $1,950 $1.49 184d 1 1.04mi
1190 W Seagull Dr Chandler, AZ 3.0 2.0 1237 $2,173 $1.76 0d 1 1.04mi
1190 W Seagull Dr Chandler, AZ 3.0 2.0 1237 $2,173 $1.76 7d 1 1.04mi
1315 W Musket Way Chandler, AZ 3.0 2.0 1454 $2,250 $1.55 184d 1 1.06mi
1175 W Pecos Rd Chandler, AZ 1.0–3.0 1.0–2.0 971 $1,999 $2.06 0d 8 1.07mi
689 E Springfield Pl Chandler, AZ 3.0 2.0 1363 $2,200 $1.61 90d 1 1.09mi
1152 S Bridger Dr Chandler, AZ 3.0 2.0 1399 $2,200 $1.57 65d 1 1.09mi
2777 S Arizona Ave Chandler, AZ 1.0–3.0 1.0–2.5 1164 $2,639 $2.27 0d 11 1.10mi
1364 W Musket Way Chandler, AZ 3.0 2.0 1454 $2,495 $1.72 79d 1 1.11mi
408 W Elgin St Chandler, AZ 3.0 1.5 1474 $2,200 $1.49 113d 1 1.12mi
688 E Springfield Pl Chandler, AZ 3.0 2.0 1363 $2,175 $1.60 43d 1 1.12mi
862 W Saragosa St Chandler, AZ 3.0 2.0 1257 $2,500 $1.99 0d 1 1.13mi
1404 W Weatherby Way Chandler, AZ 3.0 2.5 1307 $2,200 $1.68 87d 1 1.14mi
1387 W Marlin Dr Chandler, AZ 2.0 2.5 1307 $2,245 $1.72 139d 1 1.14mi
1387 W Marlin Dr Chandler, AZ 2.0 2.5 1307 $2,245 $1.72 155d 1 1.14mi

Property features AI

Finance

HOA & community
Community pool and spaPlaygroundBiking and walking pathNear a bus stopCommunity fees include sewer, street maintenance, trash, and waterLand lease of $950 per month

Exterior

Parking
Attached carport with 2 covered spaces3 open parking spaces
Utilities
Public sewer
Home design
Manufactured/mobile home
Construction
Other painted construction materialsComposition roof
Exterior features
StoragePrivate spaBackyard wood fencingGravel/stone front landscapingSynthetic grass backyardNorth/south exposure

Interior

Kitchen
RefrigeratorBuilt-in microwaveDishwasherGarbage disposalGas rangeGas ovenGas cooktopGas stub for rangeNon-laminate and quartz countertopsPantry
Bedrooms
3 bedrooms
Flooring
Vinyl flooring
Bathrooms
2 full bathrooms
Heating & cooling
Natural gas floor and wall furnacesCentral air conditioningCeiling fans
Interior features
High-speed internetDouble vanityEat-in kitchenBreakfast barNo interior stepsVaulted ceilingsDual-pane windows with vinyl framesAccessible approach with rampBath lever faucets
Laundry & utility
Indoor laundry with washer and dryer hookups

Listing history 50 events

  1. 2026-11-08
    days on market $89,980 Active 16 DOM
  2. 2026-11-07
    days on market $89,980 Active 15 DOM
  3. 2026-11-06
    days on market $89,980 Active 14 DOM
  4. 2026-11-05
    days on market $89,980 Active 13 DOM
  5. 2026-11-04
    days on market $89,980 Active 12 DOM
  6. 2026-11-02
    days on market $89,980 Active 10 DOM
  7. 2026-11-01
    days on market $89,980 Active 9 DOM
  8. 2026-10-31
    days on market $89,980 Active 8 DOM
  9. 2026-10-30
    days on market $89,980 Active 7 DOM
  10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $89,980 Active 6 DOM
  11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $89,980 Active 5 DOM
  12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $89,980 Active 4 DOM
  13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $89,980 Active 3 DOM
  14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $89,980 Active 2 DOM
  15. 2026-10-23
    remarks 699-char remark
  16. 2026-10-23
    pricedays on marketlisting id $89,980 Active 1 DOM
  17. 2026-08-31
    days on market $104,980 Active 108 DOM
  18. 2026-08-30
    days on market $104,980 Active 107 DOM
  19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $104,980 Active 106 DOM
  20. 2026-08-28
    days on market $104,980 Active 105 DOM
  21. 2026-08-27
    days on market $104,980 Active 104 DOM
  22. 2026-08-25
    days on market $104,980 Active 102 DOM
  23. 2026-08-24
    days on market $104,980 Active 101 DOM
  24. 2026-08-23
    days on market $104,980 Active 100 DOM
  25. 2026-08-22
    days on market $104,980 Active 99 DOM
  26. 2026-08-21
    days on market $104,980 Active 98 DOM
  27. 2026-08-20
    days on market $104,980 Active 97 DOM
  28. 2026-08-19
    days on market $104,980 Active 96 DOM
  29. 2026-08-18
    days on market $104,980 Active 95 DOM
  30. 2026-08-17
    days on market $104,980 Active 94 DOM
  31. 2026-08-16
    days on market $104,980 Active 93 DOM
  32. 2026-08-15
    days on market $104,980 Active 92 DOM
  33. 2026-08-14
    days on market $104,980 Active 91 DOM
  34. 2026-08-13
    days on market $104,980 Active 90 DOM
  35. 2026-08-12
    days on market $104,980 Active 89 DOM
  36. 2026-08-11
    days on market $104,980 Active 88 DOM
  37. 2026-08-10
    days on market $104,980 Active 87 DOM
  38. 2026-08-09
    days on market $104,980 Active 86 DOM
  39. 2026-08-08
    days on market $104,980 Active 85 DOM
  40. 2026-08-06
    days on market $104,980 Active 83 DOM
  41. 2026-08-05
    days on market $104,980 Active 82 DOM
  42. 2026-08-04
    days on market $104,980 Active 81 DOM
  43. 2026-08-03
    days on market $104,980 Active 80 DOM
  44. 2026-07-31
    days on market $104,980 Active 77 DOM
  45. 2026-07-30
    days on market $104,980 Active 76 DOM
  46. 2026-07-30
    days on market $104,980 Active 75 DOM
  47. 2026-07-28
    days on market $104,980 Active 74 DOM
  48. 2026-07-26
    days on market $104,980 Active 72 DOM
  49. 2026-07-24
    days on market $104,980 Active 70 DOM
  50. 2026-07-23
    days on market $104,980 Active 69 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

  • 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
  • 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
  • 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
  • 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
  • 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

Loading sold comps map…

Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

Loading nearby amenities…

Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income
$20,110
− Mortgage interest
−$5,040
− Property taxes
−$1,350
− Insurance
−$450
− Repairs & maintenance
−$1,609
− Management
−$1,609
− Depreciation
−$2,618
Taxable income
$7,435
combined federal + state — saved on this device
Est. tax owed @ 24.0%
−$1,784
After-tax cash flow
$6,640/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab Est. rehab $30,475–$54,855 screening

This manufactured home requires moderate repairs to the exterior siding and interior walls, but is otherwise in fair condition. Simple updates like painting and decluttering can significantly enhance its value.

Repairs flagged

  • Moderate exterior siding — Weathered and discolored
  • Minor interior walls — Some paint wear

Value-add opportunities

  • Both paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
  • Both repair and paint exterior siding — Fresh siding improves curb appeal and home value ↑
  • Both organize countertops and bathrooms — A clutter-free space is more appealing to potential buyers and renters ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Moderate scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 49/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary T. Dale Hancock Elementary School D AZ #296/1,109 Nat'l #14,081/41,679 Middle Bogle Junior High School C- AZ #36/218 Nat'l #4,042/14,009 High Hamilton High School D+ AZ #36/381 Nat'l #5,393/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District
Chandler Unified District #80 (4242)
NCES district ID
0401870
Math proficiency
49% ▼ -8.00%
Reading proficiency
57% ▼ -2.00%
Median HH income
$74,048
Composite
47.54/100
National rank
#2268
State rank
#31 of 249 in AZ
B Composite livability gradescore 78/100

Livability — Chandler

Score
78/100
State rank
#9
US rank
#2508

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute B Cost of living D- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

Census place
Chandler, AZ
County
Maricopa County · 4,979,203 people
City population
299,016
Metro
Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
Population (ZIP)
50,621
Household income
$121,758
Rent vs Own
34.6% rent · 65.4% own
Severe rent burden
14% of renters

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025)
4,979,203 people
By 2030
5,378,229 · +8.0%
By 2040
6,156,598 · +23.6%
By 2050
6,872,376 · +38.0%
By 2075
8,401,270 · +68.7%
By 2100
9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character
Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
Race & ethnicity
White 53% Hispanic / Latino 19% Asian 16% Two or more races 14% Black 5% Native American 2%
Hispanic origin (detail)
Mexican 15%
Languages at home
74% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Asian/Pacific 5% Chinese 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

2024 margin
Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
2008→2024 swing
+7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
All cycles
2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

Civics
—

Price history

-18.2% since first listed
4 events — show timeline
  • 2026-10-23 Listed $89,980 ARMLS
  • 2026-09-01 Listing Removed — ARMLS
  • 2026-06-19 Price Changed $104,980 ARMLS
  • 2026-05-15 Listed $109,980 ARMLS

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

Loading sold comps…