201 Shirley Ct · Napa, CA 94558

$295,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,064 sqft · Manufactured · 72 Days on market

Built 1986 $277/sqft · 24% above area Est $238k · 24% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.9/30.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 201 Shirley Court, located in the prestigious 55+ community of Oaktree Vineyard Estates in North Napa. This inviting 2-bedroom, 2-bath home offers an open and comfortable floor plan designed for easy everyday living. Newer furnace and water heater Installed. A separate laundry and storage area is conveniently located just off the interior door leading to the attached two-car garage, adding both function and flexibility. Fenced in private backyard great for entertaining or a furry friend. Residents of Oaktree Vineyards enjoy a vibrant lifestyle with wonderful amenities including a clubhouse, bocce ball, bingo, group activities, and more, all set within a beautifully maintained community in the heart of Napa Valley.

Key facts

• Clubhouse
• Bocce ball
• Group activities

Tags

• FENCED IN PRIVATE BACKYARD
• CLUBHOUSE
• BOCCE BALL
• GROUP ACTIVITIES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $295k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $247 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $289k (1.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $277k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 2.0% in Napa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#227 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, health & safety A+, amenities B+; Watch: commute F, cost of living F.
• Napa Valley Unified (urban): math 35% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #599 of 1,400 in CA (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.5%/yr); 538 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 427 units permitted in Napa County in 2024 (189 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($113k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Napa County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($277k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $277,300 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.58%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $238,421
• List price: $295,000
• Delta: 23.73%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 17 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
206 Shirley Ct	0.05mi	2/2.0	1,064 (0%)	3mo	$249,000	$234	95
201 Julie Pl	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,056 (-1%)	17mo	$275,000	$260	80
5 Falcon Crest Cir	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,056 (-1%)	23mo	$405,000	$384	76
236 Reed Cir	0.43mi	2/2.0	1,040 (-2%)	1mo	$240,000	$231	75
107 Mobile Ln	0.22mi	2/2.0	1,128 (+6%)	7mo	$170,000	$151	74
60 Falcon Crest Cir	0.06mi	2/2.0	1,150 (+8%)	23mo	$340,000	$296	65
18 Hacienda Dr	0.42mi	2/2.0	1,100 (+3%)	14mo	$265,000	$241	63
14 Falcon Crest Cir	0.10mi	2/2.0	1,152 (+8%)	24mo	$339,000	$294	62
50 Falcon Crest Cir	0.04mi	2/2.0	1,176 (+10%)	24mo	$339,000	$288	61
217 Bernadine Pl	0.15mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,200 (+13%)	8mo	$305,000	$254	60
10 Hacienda Dr	0.37mi	2/2.0	1,000 (-6%)	18mo	$199,000	$199	57
38 Hacienda Dr	0.34mi	2/2.0	1,200 (+13%)	23mo	$208,000	$173	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-40,531
• Equity at exit: $43,985

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-47,655
• Equity at exit: $25,506

Cash invested: $82,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94558

• Rents YoY: -0.5%
• Active inventory: 538
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,893 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,547
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$369 /mo · $4,425/yr
• Insurance: −$123
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$607
• Net cashflow: $247

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,581

Max offer price $295,000

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,750
• Closing costs: $8,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3663 Solano Ave Napa, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1122	$2,742	$2.44	14d	7	1.01mi
3225 Macfadden St Napa, CA	3.0	2.0	1375	$3,300	$2.40	44d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $295,000 Active 72 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $295,000 Active 71 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $295,000 Active 70 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $295,000 Active 69 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $295,000 Active 67 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $295,000 Active 66 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $295,000 Active 64 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $295,000 Active 63 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $295,000 Active 62 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $295,000 Active 61 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $295,000 Active 58 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $295,000 Active 57 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $295,000 Active 56 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $295,000 Active 55 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $295,000 Active 54 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $295,000 Active 53 DOM
17. 2026-04-08
    listed $305,000 Active 734-char remark

    Show marketing remark (734 chars)

    Welcome to 201 Shirley Court, located in the prestigious 55+ community of Oaktree Vineyard Estates in North Napa. This inviting 2-bedroom, 2-bath home offers an open and comfortable floor plan designed for easy everyday living. Newer furnace and water heater Installed. A separate laundry and storage area is conveniently located just off the interior door leading to the attached two-car garage, adding both function and flexibility. Fenced in private backyard great for entertaining or a furry friend. Residents of Oaktree Vineyards enjoy a vibrant lifestyle with wonderful amenities including a clubhouse, bocce ball, bingo, group activities, and more, all set within a beautifully maintained community in the heart of Napa Valley.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 58% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 16 unhealthy d/yr today · 17 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,713
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,525
• − Property taxes: −$4,425
• − Insurance: −$1,475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,777
• − Management: −$2,777
• − Depreciation: −$8,582
• Taxable loss: −$1,847
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$443
• After-tax cash flow: $3,403/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Napa Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0626640
• Math proficiency: 35% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $72,007
• Composite: 40.18/100
• National rank: #7827
• State rank: #599 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Napa

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #227
• US rank: #7435

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute F Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A+ Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Napa, CA
• County: Napa County · 120,669 people
• City population: 91,371
• Metro: Napa, CA
• Population (ZIP): 63,657
• Household income: $113,269
• Rent vs Own: 32.5% rent · 67.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 2095.0

Population outlook (Napa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 153,987 people
• By 2030: 159,490 · +3.6%
• By 2040: 168,796 · +9.6%
• By 2050: 176,213 · +14.4%
• By 2075: 190,113 · +23.5%
• By 2100: 190,528 · +23.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 37% Two or more races 15% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Lithuanian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Indo-European 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Napa

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+34.9) · D 65.9% · R 31.1% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.4pp toward D · 2008: 32.5pp · 2024: 34.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+34.9 2020: D+40.4 2016: D+35.2 2012: D+25.7 2008: D+32.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -842.94%
• Current HPI: 296.0661
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.50%
• Metro: Napa, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Listed $305,000 BAREIS

Property tax history

-0.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $479 · -15.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.