30072 State Route 3 · Felts Mills, NY 13612

$169,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,104 sqft · Manufactured public records · 18 Days on market

Built 1978 1.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.4/30.0
• DSCR +7.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Double-wide that's in need updating but has a great location close to Ft Drum. This property has good bones and could become a updated flip or rental or your home.

Key facts

• Expansive kitchen
• Walk-in closet
• Light-up mirror

Tags

• LIGHT-FILLED LIVING AREA
• EXPANSIVE KITCHEN
• FULLY RENOVATED BATHROOM
• MODERN VANITY
• LIGHT-UP MIRROR
• WALK-IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-story home; Existing residence; Vinyl siding
• Construction: Block foundation; Vinyl siding construction
• Exterior features: Gravel driveway; Rectangular lot; Main thoroughfare road frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas cooktop
• Bedrooms: Three main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Luxury vinyl; Varied flooring
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on main level
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Bedroom on main level; Crawl space basement; Fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $346 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $170k).
• Recommended offer: $167k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,045 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: employment D+, health & safety D, crime F.
• Carthage Central School District (rural): math 30% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #539 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 21 active listings in the ZIP; 196 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (2.8% local appreciation)).
• Jefferson County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (2.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $48k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $55k; list at $170k implies a 209% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $167,351 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.74%
• DSCR: 1.39
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.77% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.85×
• Total profit: $40,491
• Equity at exit: $74,229

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.43×
• Total profit: $115,782
• Equity at exit: $112,739

Cash invested: $47,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13612

• Home prices YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 21
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,849 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$152 /mo · $1,826/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$388
• Net cashflow: $346

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,410

Max offer price $169,900

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,475
• Closing costs: $5,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $169,900 Active 18 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $169,900 Active 17 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $169,900 Active 16 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $169,900 Active 15 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $169,900 Active 14 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $169,900 Active 12 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $169,900 Active 11 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $169,900 Active 8 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $169,900 Active 7 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $169,900 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $169,900 Active 3 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $169,900 Active 2 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    remarks 628-char remark
14. 2026-06-02
    listed $169,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,826 · $152/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,349 · $196/mo
• Expected delta: +$522/yr (+$44/mo · 28.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X · 67% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,184
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,517
• − Property taxes: −$1,826
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,775
• − Management: −$1,775
• − Depreciation: −$4,943
• Taxable income: $1,499
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$360
• After-tax cash flow: $3,798/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carthage Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3606630
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,450
• Composite: 32.63/100
• National rank: #5668
• State rank: #539 of 590 in NY

Livability — Felts Mills

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1045
• US rank: #20734

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing C Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Felts Mills, NY
• City population: 172
• Population (ZIP): 2,940

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 111,748 people
• By 2030: 109,370 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 103,828 · -7.1%
• By 2050: 98,523 · -11.8%
• By 2075: 91,422 · -18.2%
• By 2100: 78,214 · -30.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 4% Asian 3% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · South Korea, Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Korean 3% Spanish 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.6) · D 38.2% · R 61.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.3pp toward R · 2008: -5.3pp · 2024: -23.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.6 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+22.4 2012: R+2.9 2008: R+5.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.77%
• Current HPI: 415.9603
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+115.1% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Listed $169,900 CNYIS
• 2026-05-23 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2026-03-24 Contingent — CNYIS
• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $169,990 CNYIS
• 2026-02-27 Listed $179,900 CNYIS
• 2025-10-12 Sold (MLS) $55,000 CNYIS
• 2025-07-24 Pending — CNYIS
• 2025-07-22 Listed $79,900 CNYIS
• 2017-04-01 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2016-06-18 Listed $79,000 CNYIS

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,826 · +4.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.